1. Sunrise on Karl, it may be a trick of the early light but I can see a larger low level circulation that fully surrounds the 2nd larger part of Karl.
2. The second image says where we are supposed to be now in the model timeline and it certainly looks about right.
At 458,000km2 of overall sunrise convection & adjacent cloud and 187,000 km2 of intense sunsrise convection the 2 parts of #KARL are certainly starting stronger this morning than yesterday.
This animation is 4 hours and started at 7am local time so well before sunrise. At first glance it looks like the northern part of the RH arm of Karl is already being effected by west-east shear.
On the LFS there is clearly aspinning vortex there, albeit with little structure.
Here is what is forecast to happen to this storm over the next 117 hours. This is the 13:06Z GFS model run for Precipitable water, which is mostly what this event is all about - that and the Tehuantepec wind gap #TSKarl#Karl is expected cross around midnight tonight.
However according to the forecast that is far from the end of this as far as Mexico is concerned. Several more Tehuantepec wind gap events are forecast after #Karl gets squelched over the following 200 hours.
Looks like inter-ocean ping pong with storms accross the Tehuantepec gap - with a high probability of more hurricanes.
There is a real forecast possibility of two more before the 18th, which could raise Central America's Hurricane count to 4 in 10 days.
Which is why I am so interested in what happens to #Karl.
When the remnants of #Julia went through the gap the storm became two - #Karl & #Invest99E. This sort of thing could conceivably continue beyond next Tuesday.
Current 29/10 Forecast:
It would perhaps be farcical if it weren't also killing people, and destroying property and infrastructure.
The 2nd cause to this event is this >>
Animation: Unusual atmospheric conditions in North America delivering an endless series of arctic wind blasts.
Its almost like north America has been occupied by a weather hydra that hates hurricanes. The endless series of arctic blasts are also preventing water from escaping the Carribean and Gulf via the usual route up the Eastern Seaboard.
In monitoring this I am hoping to see #Karl get away to the East and restore a normal weather system. Pakistan had 20 straight days of aberrant torrential rain and it was the catastrophe of the year. It would be terrible for Central America if something similar happened again.
This explanation is partly for #NHC_Atlantic's forecasters who may by now be wondering why a journalist is constantly second guessing their cyclone warnings.
That's me for this thread - I will be back later to see what has happened.
Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:
1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media. 2. This is not going to change any time soon. thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.
This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.
All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.
Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.
I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.
But the this bit is weird.
The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.
I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.