Thread by @Scot126126

@contrarian8888 $pthrf
A thread on the *potential* implications of $panr proving commerciality at Alkaid-2 in the coming days. I wish to be more clear about the *upside risk* to this investment case, if proved.

- #panr has announced the discovery of an oil accumulation...1/

...in excess of 23 billion barrels of Oil in Place just 20 miles south of Deadhorse, Alaska. Independent validation of this data has come from the State of Alaska’s Dept of Natural Resources, eSeis, Lee Keeling & Assoc, AHS Baker Hughes and Schlumberger. 2/
#panr $panr $pthrf

I am not aware of one credible voice which refutes the Oil in Place figure.

- There is a legitimate debate that the characteristics of the stacked reservoirs discovered by $panr mean that recovering the oil commercially will be difficult, perhaps even impossible. 3/
#panr $pthrf

Management and their external consultants have openly shared their thesis and calculations which support commercial production from $panr's acreage. Some argue the science is robust and has been proved in other locations. Others do not believe such a threshold...4/
#panr $pthrf

...of proof has been provided.

- The imminent publication (within days) of the Initial Production figure from Alkaid-2, $panr's first production well, will provide empirical data which *could* support #panr’s investment case. 5/
$pthrf @adndotcom @AlaskaJournal @SarahPalinUSA

Some will wish to wait for those results, which I understand.

- That said, I do not believe the US investment markets have recognised the potential impact of $panr proving its investment case. Here are some blunt points which US investors will be *obliged*...6/
#panr $pthrf

...to address if $panr’s commercial thesis is proved.

-*If* $panr is successful and proves commerciality, #panr will have discovered the second or third largest conventional oilfield in US history. Only Prudhoe Bay and perhaps Kuparuk River will be larger. 7/
$pthrf @alaskardc

The US media has *not yet* picked up on this story.

- *If* $panr proves commerciality, due to its location which sees both the Dalton Highway and TAPS intersect their acreage, their cost of production ought to be low in comparison to other Alaskan oilfields. 8/
#panr $pthrf

- *If* $panr proves commerciality, these reservoirs are capable of producing oil for > 30 years.

- *If* #panr proves commerciality, its light crude will extend the life of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline System (TAPS). TAPS is running at only 25% capacity currently. 9/
$pthrf @AOGA

- *If* $panr proves commerciality, the most recent deal on the North Slope of Alaska saw each barrel in the ground valued at $3.10. Each recoverable resource barrel in the ground on #panr’s acreage is currently valued at 40c. /10
$pthrf @SarahPalinUSA @AlaskaJournal @AOGA

- *If* Alkaid-2 proves commerciality, the equity markets will be *forced* to reassess dramatically $panr’s equity value. For example, the Canaccord O&G analyst’s unrisked valuation is in excess of 1000p (US$11.00 per share). Current share price is c.100p (US$1.10). /11
#panr

- There is *no guarantee* Alkaid-2 will prove commerciality. But if it does, the mathematical upside here is spectacular. /end
#panr $panr $pthrf @GovDunleavy @SenDanSullivan @lisamurkowski @SarahPalinUSA @alaskardc @adndotcom @PetroleumNews @AKSenMajority @AKBusinessMonth