Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #oott

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Thread on #Libya oil shut in: The agenda for Sunday's scheduled UN meeting with Libyan stakeholders in Cairo will now include oil terminals, which were not part of this week's 5+5 security meeting in Geneva. #OOTT #OPEC
I do not expect an agreement to materialize over the weekend, but there will be discussions of eastern Libyan stakeholders' demands that would need to be met to reopen the terminals.
Diplomatic pressure over the past 48 hours has raised expectations that a deal could happen soon, but there has been no apparent breakthrough so far.
Read 10 tweets
1. According to Bloomberg oil demand in China to drop 3mbpd. That is 90 1mb cargoes or 45 VLCCs a month the Chinese have to cancel or re-sell to balance their supply/demand.

#OOTT
2. What have we seen so far from China. 5mb of crude up for resale or 166kbpd over a month. And that is crude that won’t be processed until May or even June.
3. Cargoes arriving now in Chinese ports have been on the water for 4-6 weeks. They were loaded before the Coronavirus panic even had started. They were bought even earlier than that in October. Ship tracking now won’t tell you anything about crude demand.
Read 7 tweets
Between meetings Davos last week and with epidemiologist friends this week I now have enough information on the #coronarvirus outbreak to be seriously concerned.
My primary skills from years of hedge funding and macro is pulling out what matters and here is what matters 1/
Lots of us have now looked at r0s and pretty maps and know enough about the outbreak for dinner/water cooler talk, but the reality is that every outbreak has its own flavour and we don't really have enough data points to fit as the world changes between each one
The numbers and graphs are eyebrow raising as the number of cases apparently has matched all of SARS and the death toll is rising rapidly.
Factors such as the long incubation period (vs 2-3 days for H1N1 and SARS) and asymptomatic spreading also make a logical reason for concern
Read 13 tweets
🇨🇳 #China (1) | The question is no longer if, but how hard, the #coronavirus will damage Chinese economy (and its trading partners) in 1Q20.
🇨🇳 #China (2) | A blockage of 16 cities (~50 million people) coupled with the extension of the Lunar New Year holiday and prohibition for Cos to return to work soon implies that 1Q will fall below 6% for the first time since QoQ figures are recorded.
🇨🇳 #China (3) | The impact will probably broaden from retail sales, tourism/transportation...

Read 93 tweets
1. Devil advocate questions about the Coronavirus thread

Most people believe that China is under reporting the seriousness of the Coronavirus. But what if they are over reporting the seriousness?

#OOTT
2. Outside of China there have been over 30 cases reported. With a 4% case-fatality rate that should mean at least one person died nor have any become critical.
3. The Uk has tested 9 people that have come from Wuhan and all are negative. But they are looking for 2000 more. Surely one of those will be in a bad way by now?
Read 6 tweets
1) As the market freaks out over short-term demand destruction from the coronavirus (SARS dented demand by 0.26MM Bbl/d in '03) , I'm focusing on what will matter after the panic ends: US growth deceleration, peaking of global offshore production, and Canadian egress solutions:
2) 2020 will be the first year in several where US production growth does not fully satisfy global demand growth...this is an extremely important development. Why? #OOTT
3) Non-OPEC+ production has been totally reliant on the US for growth over the past 5 years...without the US non-OPEC+ production would have fallen by 600,000Bbl/d while demand has grown by ~7.5MM Bbl/d. Global offshore production peaks in 2020...the trend will continue... #OOTT
Read 6 tweets
La CRE va a suspender de manera definitiva todo control de precios de combustibles de @Pemex según un borrador en control de @OPIS fechado enero 16. El regulador argumenta que esto va a nivelar la cancha de juego para la estatal | @WeTweetEnergyMx #Mexico #OOTT
@Pemex @OPIS @WeTweetEnergyMx Abro hilo sobre los argumentos que da la CRE para esta decisión y sus consecuencias. Según la CRE, el creciente control de empresas privadas del sector gasolinero pone en riesgo la colocación y comercialización de producto nacional de parte de @Pemex 1/6
Este acuerdo ha sido muy esperado desde que la CRE voto en Diciembre suspender la regulación asimétrica de precios de Pemex sin dar argumentos ni especificar los pasos a seguir, sumergiendo al sector de combustible en incertidumbre 2/6
Read 7 tweets
1. Thread.

The crude export numbers from the US last week were pretty amazing. 4.46mbpd, was much bigger than it had ever been. But was it really that surprising to see it the last week of the year? Answer probably not. Why?

#OOTT
2. Because at the end of the year liquids in Tanks are taxed by certain states due to their change in value, I.e. the appreciation of an asset. This tax is determined on a LIFO (last in first out), therefore it is compared to the price at the end of last year effectively.
3. In years where prices have appreciated you typically see an end of year draw down and years where the price has fallen you will see inventory builds.
Read 10 tweets
We know people are going to say it's the EIA DPR, but here are some incredible charts illustrating the US shale slowdown story.

#OOTT
Estimated 2020 using ~12.2k well completions.
Permian
Read 8 tweets
In September 2019, the United States exported 89,000 barrels per day (b/d) more petroleum (crude oil and petroleum products) than it imported, the first month this happened since monthly records began in 1973. #OOTT #TWIP
bit.ly/38b67Kn
The United States is a net exporter of petroleum!
*me in my office when data was released...
Now - before everyone gets giddy let's put things into the proper context.
Read 10 tweets
SEB did some nice work on shale. Let me share. US Shale oil DUC inventory is now drawing at fastest pace in history, both in relative and abolute terms. Monthly decline will likely rise to more than 300 wells per month in December 2020. That is what capital starvation does. #OOTT
Shale oil production is still rising. Do note though how production declined on a dime at end of 2014. This was & remains due to very strong first and second year decline rate of up to 75%. So when completion rates start to decline, production will too within months. #OOTT
And completion rates turn down fast. In Oct 2019, 1373 wells were completed. If 98 wells or 7% less wells are completed in Dec vs Oct (which is likely), shale will have ZERO growth. This is what the blue bars below show. It is the steady state of completions needed to stay still.
Read 6 tweets
1. Thread
For those stuck in the office and not stuffing their face with Turkey and arguing with their family over politics.

The biggest disappointment in the US has been refinery throughput this year in general. The question of what has caused it is an open question

#OOTT
2. In the latest EIA weekly, crude throughput was 1.2mbpd less than last year while gross throughput was over 0.9mbpd less than last year. That indicates that US refiners are using more other feedstocks than last year, mainly straight run fuel oil.
3. But utilization has been poor in 2019 compared to 2018 Suggests a number of possibilities
- Unintended shutdowns due to fires etc.
- The crude slate has lightened too much
-Potentially bigger autumn maintenance season than normal to take advantage of IMO
Read 13 tweets
#Iran’s #oil Minister, Zangeneh: “the new discovery had added 22 billion barrels of crude oil to previous estimates of the field.”
- The newly-discovered oilfield in Khuzesan was named Namavaran, adding the field had an oil in place estimate of 53 billion barrels.#OOTT #OPEC
- The field was estimated to hold53 billion barrels of crude oil in place and there is a possibility of its southward continuation.

- exploration activities began in2016 and given that 31 b barrels were previously discovered,22 billion barrels were added to previous estimations.
- Assuming 10% recovery rate in the field, 2.2 billion barrels of crude oil have been added to the country’s crude oil production capacity.

-This is the second largest oilfield discovered in Iran following Asmari Oil Layer in Gachsaran with 54 billion barrels of oil in place.
Read 4 tweets
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN ENERGY: Where I'm mostly just going to leverage the #Kentucky election to talk about Justified to try to get some eyeballs, mostly because lots going on! #OOTT #energy
So today is where we've got a big day in Brazil - where they're auctioning off offshore rights on a whole load of acreage. #OOTT

Definitely need to follow @NoriegaMarta @mariannaparraga @G_Slattery on this one.

reuters.com/article/brazil…
If all the areas receive a bid, Brazil’s government will net 106.5 billion reais ($26.7 billion) in signing bonuses - and that will plug holes in the country's leaky budget.

Brazil is one of few non-OPEC countries boosting production, meanwhile. #OOTT
Read 24 tweets
مطلب امروزم با تيتر "پازل استراتژيك نفتي" در صفحه اول روزنامه اعتماد منتشر شده است. مي توانيد در لينك زير بخوانيد. در #رشته_توییت زير هم قابل خواندن است: etemadnewspaper.ir/fa/main/detail…پازل-استراتژيك-نفتي

#OOTT #OPEC
١-با يك نگاه مي‌توان نوشت:«ببينيد وضعيت صنعت نفت ايران به كجا رسيده است كه وزير نفت آن درمراسم امضاي قرارداد ساخت پمپ! آن هم با ارزش كمتر از 50 ميليون يورو! شركت مي‌كند.وزيري كه پيش از اين در مراسم امضاي قراردادهاي پروژه‌هاي مهم كه ارزش چند صدميليون يورو يا ميليارد دلاري داشت،..
٢-...شركت مي‌كرد.» قرارداد ساخت و خدمات پشتيباني الكتروپمپ‌هاي «طرح انتقال نفت خام گوره- جاسك» امروز بين شركت «مهندسي و توسعه نفت» (متن) به عنوان كارفرما و شركت‌هاي «پمپ‌هاي صنعتي ايران»، «پمپيران» و «پتكو» مجموعا به ارزش 48 ميليون يورو امضا مي‌شود...
Read 17 tweets
Aramco Prod. Thread: High-Freq. Oil Prod. data & further insights building on podcast w/@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr …going to simplify some stuff (I just don’t have the space)…will cite where I still have the links #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape

spreaker.com/user/ryanraysr…
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 1) Does our data align with official Aramco statements? To be clear, as we have shared with clients (last Sunday/Monday/Tuesday) and the media (later on), so far, our High-Frequency Oil Production Monitor’s data aligns with Aramco’s official statements #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
@EnergzdEconomy @ryanraysr @genscape 2) about how fast/when prod. at various facilities was restored. Notably, we detected Khurais prod. w/in 24 hours of the attacks (worldoil.com/news/2019/9/20…) and we detected 50%+ of total prod. from affected facilities returning during the couple days #OOTT #OIL #OPEC @genscape
Read 42 tweets
1. Tweet thread. Some thoughts

Can the Saudi's get back to 9.8mbpd of crude production?

Prior to the attack the Saudi's were producing 9.8mbpd it was broken down as follows
Abqaiq: 4.5mbpd
Khurais: 0.7mbpd
Other fields: 4.6mbpd.

#OOTT
2. What is the spare capacity in the system.

The maximum capacity: 12mbpd
Abqaiq: 4.8mbpd
Kurais: 1.45mbpd
Other Fields: 5.75mbpd

That means that the spare capacity from the other fields are 1.15mbpd.
3. So if Reuters are correct and Khurais and Abqaiq have recovered 75% to 80% or 4.3mbpd. That means if Saudis can increase the spare capacity of the other fields then Saudi can produce up to 10.05mbpd (5.75mbpd other field spare capacity and 4.3mbpd through Khurais and Abqaiq).
Read 11 tweets
CHART OF THE DAY: The sudden loss of 5.7m b/d of #oil production is the single largest outage the market has ever sufferes (larger in volume than the loss of Iraqi and Kuwaiti output in the 1990 Gulf War, and the loss of Iranian oil in the 1979 Islamic Revolution) #OOTT
Of course, those other outages lasted for several month, so their cumulative pact was huge. Key here is how quickly Aramco can restart production (either through repairs, bypasses or increasing output elsewhere, notably its offshore fields in the Persian Gulf) #OOTT
Also, important to note that the overall oil market was a lot smaller in 1990 and 1979, so a smaller outage in volume terms (barrels per day) could have a much larger impact when considered as % of global supplies | #OOTT
Read 3 tweets
1. biggest problem with releasing from US SPR is the crude is in the wrong place for refineries in the short term.

First, It will take 2 weeks for the first SPR crude to hit the market after Trump permitted its release.

#OOTT
2. The second: most similar crude from other producers will already have been allocated making it difficult to cover any short fall in Saudi crude until the November programs.
3. Third Literally if you look at a map Saudi Arabia is right in the centre of oil logistics. The US is not. it is at the extreme. For a importing country it is not a big problem but as a producer it is a problem being at the extreme.
Read 8 tweets
More details on Abqaiq (as reported by @energyaspects): Attacks caused shut-in of 5.7 mb/d of crude production (58% of current output), 2 bcf/d of gas output (18% of annual average domestic gas sales) and over 0.5 mb/d of ethane and NGLs output (50% of current production). #oott
Attacks damaged parts of 7 mb/d Abqaiq processing facility and another plant that handles output from the 1.2 mb/d Khurais field. Although redundant processing capacity should enable some of the affected output to return quickly, a full restoration will likely take weeks.
Saudi crude contains H2S & must be processed to make it fit for transport through pipelines or processing in refineries. EA understands that at least 1 of 7 stabilisation trains at Abqaiq has been severely damaged while 8-10 of the 18 desulphurisation towers are out of action
Read 10 tweets
The drone attack on Saudi Arabia has an important impact on the country's oil infrastructure, but we should not exaggerate its impact on world supply

Open thread #OOTT #SaudiArabia #DroneAttacks
1) Saudi Arabia is the OPEC country with the largest spare capacity. Although the drone attack impacts 5% of global supply, it also comes at a time when supply glut was evident, global inventories are large and substitution is relatively easy.
2) The IEA estimates the ‘call on OPEC’ at 28.3 mbd in 1H20. This is a downward revision of 0.2 mb/d compared to its previous forest and a substantial 1.4 mb/d below OPEC’s August output.
Read 9 tweets
Houthi fighters in Yemen have claimed two drone attacks on Saudi #Aramco factories in Abqaiq and Khurais provinces which sparked large fires. Saudi interior ministry spokesman says the fires in the state oil company have been brought under control
Abqaiq plays a pivotal role in Aramco's day-to-day operations. #Saudi Aramco says #Abqaiq is the company's largest oil processing facility and the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world saudiaramco.com/en/creating-va…
#SaudiArabia is shutting down about half of its #oil output after apparently coordinated drone strikes hit facilities in what #Yemen’s Houthi rebels described as one of their largest-ever attacks inside the kingdom according to @WSJ & @Reuters wsj.com/articles/drone…
Read 20 tweets
Saudi Arabia says it has contained a fires after two large #oil facilities were attacked with drones: the Abqaiq processing center and the Khurais oilfield (video is Abqaiq) | #OOTT #SaudiArabia 🇸🇦 ⛽️🛢 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Abqaiq is perhaps the *world’s most important* oil installation. According to the @EIAgov, the plant has a capacity of >7 million b/d. “Most of the oil produced in the country [Saudi Arabia] is processed at Abqaiq before export or delivery to refineries” eia.gov/beta/internati…
This what @Aramco says about the Abqaiq plant: “As the company's largest oil processing facility and the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world, Abqaiq plays a pivotal role in our day-to-day operations.”
Read 4 tweets
1/Here is why you [the market] and the @IEA have got it wrong on #IMO2020.
This is what a 'little disruption' may entail....
#OOTT
@IEA 2/ #IMO2020 crunch time for #oil product balances coming in Dec/Jan not Apr20 (as per IEA). No @IMOHQ derogations/no delays. Market is telling us so as prompt HSFO cracks collapse.
#OOTT
@IEA @IMOHQ 3/ #IMO2020 compliance is being way underestimated by @IEA. Not worth the risk for shippers. Problem with the 0.5% VLSFO alternative is that it will be available, but not compatible. Not worth the risk. Shippers will go for Marine Gasoil (MGO) in size until comfortable.
#OOTT
Read 7 tweets

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