Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #oott

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If I tell google I am going to Kalamata, the map will draw my route. The machine doesn't know my real intentions only knows what I tell it. Therefore, looking at the AIS of VLCC Adrian Darya 1 we know what the crew has told the computer not the real intended destination! #OOTT
It is a common process in the shipping world! When the final destination of a vessel is not fully decided or there is other reasons to throw people off a destination in the general direction is put into the system, while the operators of the tell the crew what to do.
Example! Many tankers come into the Middle East Gulf awaiting orders. While coming it they show their destination as Basrah, pretty much the northest part of the Gulf, because the crew is not aware of the load port. Eventually that may be Ras Tanura and the system gets updated.
Read 3 tweets
India is meant to be the world's fastest-growing coal market.

But investment fell 90% last year, to the point that only one (state-backed) generator got new loans.

This is the beginning of the end in coal's last redoubt (thread):…
Coal generation is already in terminal decline in the U.S. and Europe.

The market is disappearing, according to the CEO of Colombia's Cerrejón, probably the best coal mine supplying countries bordering the Atlantic:…

And in China we're around the peak.
India is thought to be different. @IEA reckons is grows by 3.9% a year to 2023. @BloombergNEF, which tends to be more skeptical about fossil fuels demand, sees coal-fired generation rising by ~50% by 2030:
Read 11 tweets
1/11 on DUCs:

Common view suggests that, even without higher rig counts, lower 48 production of 8.5 mb/d can grow this year by running down drilled but uncompleted wells - or DUCs - inventories of more than 8,000 wells.
2/11 What are DUCs?

DUCs are the result of modern division of labour. A baseload inventory of DUCs therefore will always be present due to the scheduling of proppants, water, frac crews and other requirements.
3/11 More DUCs?

Recently, the ratio of DUC wells to completions has been rising. Producers build DUC inventories in low price environments—such as the weak Midland price environment of H2 18 related to pipeline constraints—and complete them at more attractive prices later. #oott
Read 12 tweets
1/13 On oil & oil equity prices:

So why does oil and oil equities underperform the S&P and NASDAQ in 2019 by a wide margin? #OOTT #brent #WTI #oilprice
2/13 As shown by Crescat Capital, this is a growth/ETF/momentum market which left commodities at 50 year relative historical lows! @crescatkevin @TaviCosta
3/13 So how do oil prices format?

Short term, spot prices #trade around inventory levels.

However, it is hard for #Brent and oil equities to go up on declining inventories while demand/macro weakens (macro outlook uncertain). #OOTT #WTI @HFI_Research
Read 13 tweets
The EIA'S Weekly Petroleum Status Report provides weekly estimates of U.S. crude oil supply, including a measure of how well the supply of crude oil and the disposition of crude oil balance with each other. This measure is called the "adjustment". #OOTT
If the reported supply and disposition of crude oil balanced perfectly each week, the adjustment would equal zero. For several reasons, however, this is rarely the case. Hence the need for the adjustment.
Weekly U.S. crude oil supply and disposition data are based on a combination of EIA survey data, U.S. CBP data, and modeled estimates. All statistical samples using survey data have small but unavoidable imprecisions, and model estimated data’s precision can vary.
Read 19 tweets
14. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world?

#Hypocrites #DoubleStandards #Liars #Warlords #USRealTerrorists
Wrong US policies in the Middle East. Sanctions against Iran. Sanctions used by the USA as a war weapon🤨👇🏼
1. United States decided to label #IRGC terrorists. But who are the real terrorists? Who created, trained, armed & financed the worst terrorist groups in the world? 🤨👇🏼…
Read 202 tweets
#WTI price action towards $58,25 following #OPEC+ meeting #OOTT
#OPEC #OOTT #WTI price went up 5 minutes after scheduled meeting at 13:00 before moving towards $58,25 with a 5 moves down.
If we consider #OPEC posture, $58,75 should have provided support imho. But it didn't. The fall retraced 0.618 Fibo
Read 19 tweets
Thanks to @planetlabs satellite imagery capture this morning, we can see that the fire aboard the #FrontAltair has now been extinguished, but we can also see a massive hole. Thankfully, such tankers have dual-layered hulls & multiple storage compartments. #OOTT
@planetlabs In addition to that, we can also see from @MarineTraffic maritime data that both tankers are currently being tugged towards Fujairah, UAE. #FrontAltair #KokukaCourageous #OOTT
Good morning! We may be away from our desks this AM but the @MarineTraffic app is clearly showing progress as both tankers are being tugged into the anchorages of Fujairah and/or Khor Fakkan.
Read 4 tweets
Here is the first @NASA satellite image taken this morning of (what seems to be based on AIS pos) the #FrontAltair tanker. We had to enhance the original. We noted the distress call times as reported by @katiemcque. A couple of tugboats in the area have diverted to assist. #OOTT
This is the original satellite image. We're waiting for additional sources.
Data captured by @esa (delivered via @sentinel_hub) shows a 25km long smoke plume blowing west at 05:49 UTC (09:49 local time). That's 3.5 hours after initial distress call. Also, in three days time, weather forecast has #CycloneVayu approaching the area at 160km/h.
Read 13 tweets
and off we go #EnergyTwitter! May the thread start! 💡

Did You Know: To provide vital #oil across the English Channel after the #DDay landings, within months secret #pipelines were unwound from massive spools to reach French ports.
Following the #DDay invasion– June 6, 1944 – Allied forces would need vast quantities of #petroleum to continue the advance into #Europe. Allied leaders also knew that petroleum tankers trying to reach French ports would be vulnerable to #Luftwaffe attacks...
A top-secret “Operation #PLUTO” – Pipe Line Under The Ocean – became the Allied strategy. It would fuel victory with #oil production from the #USA petroleum industry. The secret pipeline mission used a popular #WaltDisney character for its logo. #OOTT
Read 26 tweets
This is HUGE:

Fossil-fuel investments are running at terminal-decline levels, and the volume of #coal generator approvals has fallen below plant retirements, possibly for the first time since the 19th century: (thread)… #climatechange #energy #oott
Energy-watchers should check the latest @IEA World Energy Investment report released this week.…

It contains some fascinating data suggesting that the energy transition is happening much faster than we think. (HT @TimBuckleyIEEFA for pointing this out)
@IEA @TimBuckleyIEEFA As is often highlighted by critics of energy transition, global coal generation was never higher than it was in 2018.

That covers up substantial differences though. In the past decade it fell nearly 40% in the U.S. and nearly 25% in Europe, but rose 60% in Asia:
Read 28 tweets
1/19 We ask: when will Shale "blink" & go into permenant decline?

Our answer: by 2021. Which is why we see a supply gap in 2022.

Here is why, i.e. a brief summary on the Permian from David Hughes' latest report…. @drillinginfo @Bob_McNally @kingofcrude
2/ Shale growth is all about the Permian. But there, sweet spots have been defined & are being drilled off. Since 2009, 4 counties out of 61 have accounted for 45% of cumulative oil production of which four counties have accounted for 24%. #oott @ericnuttall @anasalhajji @chigrl
3/ Individual wells in the Permian decline quickly. The average HZ well declines 86% over the first 3 years of well life, so continual drilling is necessary to maintain field production. #oott @HFI_Research @Hedgeye @2020Upstream @staunovo
Read 19 tweets
FRIDAY MORNING IN ENERGY: And I’d like to talk energy, but really, I’ve got to talk trade first after we’ve got new tariffs coming, a lot of research notes, and very nervous markets… #OOTT #tradewar #China #trade
… as always you can follow our coverage here on Our lead story right now is, the US escalated the trade war with more tariffs after the Chinese made major changes in the agreement that blew everything up earlier in the week.…
Trump has said he’s in no rush to complete the deal. So we’ve got that going for us. #trade #china Ttradewar…
Read 26 tweets
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
Read 55 tweets
People might have missed this among the excitement about Saudi Aramco's bond prospectus, but it's potentially a big deal:

Saudi Arabia has only about a third of the natural gas we thought it did. #oott…
Important preamble: Aramco's accounts are the biggest secret in the world energy industry, hence the excitement about this prospectus. Most figures out there were previously just very good guesswork.
The figure I knew of before this was the one in BP's Statistical Review, a sort of handbook/bible for the energy industry: 283 trillion cubic feet.

For comparison, Exxon Mobil has iirc the biggest gas reserves among independent oil companies, at about 51 trillion cu ft.
Read 20 tweets
1/#IMO2020 is the most significant change to the global refining complex in my lifetime (..however I'm a millennial..sort of) #OOTT
2/#IMO2020 is all about getting rid of ~3.0mln bbls/d of #oil demand and creating ~3.0mln bbls/d of new supply #OOTT
3/#IMO2020 is a play on how confident shippers are (or not) using this new 0.5% blend of marine fuel #oil. Its more of a problem when there is no consensus on what will be gonig into the 0.5% blend. #OOTT
Read 8 tweets
For the 82nd Month in a row, Australian Oil import coverage stocks are well below the 90 day IEA minimum, despite increasing by 3 days and stable daily imports for December 2018. Australian #energysecurity remains vulnerable #OOTT #energypolicy #oil #auspol
Australian Net Oil Imports have increased by ~12% vs December 2017. Australia remains vulnerable to international oil supply disruptions while stocks remain >40% below the IEA 90 day minimum. #OOTT #energypolicy #energysecurity #oil #auspol #energytwitter
Australian Domestic Refinery Inputs only contribute 16% of Indigenous supply for local consumption. With production having declined consistently over the last 10 years, import dependency remains a strategic concern. #EnergyPolicy #EnergySecurity #OOTT #OIL #auspol
Read 23 tweets
#GrowthSlowing #inflation
In the 12 months through January, the CPI rose 1.6 percent, the smallest gain since June 2017. The CPI increased 1.9 percent on a year-on-year basis in December.…
#GrowthSlowing #fundflows
Money market funds recorded $21.38 billion in inflows to $3.040 trillion in the week ended Feb. 12. That was the highest level since the week of March 9, 2010, when assets totaled $3.067 trillion, according to data firm iMoneyNet.…
Read 26 tweets
$USD #liquidity
1/ While the US Dollar has pulled back in January it was not unexpected looking at net issuance by the US Treasury and the rate of change in excess reserves. Using a 3 month adv. on net issuance and excess reserves their may be further upside to the US Dollar.
$USD #liquidity
2/ There was a small uptick in global liquidity in December 2018 in rate of change terms. This has supported many markets that were oversold. However, there has been no sizeable change in trend. Will know more once January data is released.
#equities #liquidity
3/ If we have a closer look at the rate of change in the major central bank balance sheets we can see the contraction throughout 2018. The rate of change in the MSCI All World Index tracks it closely. Again notice the slight uptick in December 2018.
Read 40 tweets
Jan2019 M.PMI APAC so far

• JP 50.3 29M L
• AU 52.5 3M H
• CN NBR 𝟰𝟵.𝟱 up
• CN Cai 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 35M L
• IN 53.9 up
• ID 𝟰𝟵.𝟵 12M L
• SK 𝟰𝟴.𝟯 6M L
• TW 𝟰𝟳.𝟱 40M L
• PH 52.3 4M L
• TH 50.2
• VN 51.9 4M L
Jan2019 M.PMI Eurozone

• EA 50.5 50L
• DE 𝟰𝟵.𝟳 50L !
• FR 51.2 4H
• IT 𝟰𝟳.𝟴 85L !
• ES 52.4 up
• NL 55.1 28L
• AT 52.7 28L
• GR 53.7 3L
• IR 52.6 27L

#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Jan2019 M.PMI ex-EZ EMEA

• GB 52.8 3L
• CH 54.3 28L
• SE 51.5 29L
• NO 58.3 5H
• RU 50.9 4L
• HU 54.0
• PL 𝟰𝟴.𝟮 up
• CZ 𝟰𝟵.𝟬 72L
• TU 𝟰𝟰.𝟮 =
• ZA 50.5

#OGMT #GlobalSlowDown
Read 5 tweets


• ESI 106.2 26M low
• Manuf 26M low
• Services 28M low
• Retail 47M low



• ESI 108.5 22M low
• Manuf 24M low
• Services 7M low
• Consumer 6M low
• Retail 47M low
• Constr 4M low



• ESI 101.01 2M high
• Manuf 26M low
• Services 4M high
• Consumer 3M high
• Retail 27M low
• Constr 3M low

Read 12 tweets
#inflation #bonds $TLT
Charts from last night Australian time. Not updated for most recent ISM number.
YoY% for average gasoline prices falling with the US 10 year yield YoY% and CPI YoY% following.
#USA #growthslowing
US leading economic index YoY%, GS US financial conditions, and the St. @stlouisfed financial stress index all pointing to lower real gdp numbers for the US economy.
#USA #growthslowing
If we advance GS financial conditions forward by 3 months it is likely that real GDP growth and leading economic indicators continue to track lower.
Read 12 tweets
🇨🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇳 🇮🇷 #Canada arrests #Huawei’s global chief financial officer in Vancouver – The Globe and Mail…
A gauge of #technology shares on the MSCI #Asia Pacific Index slid as much as 3 percent before paring some losses - Bloomberg
🇺🇸 #SPX ⬇ as much as 1.9% from Tuesday’s close, before paring some losses. Selling pressure early in the session was so intense that it forced CME Group to intermittently pause trading, according to a spokesperson for the exchange - Bloomberg
Read 736 tweets

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