Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022 14 tweets 5 min read Read on X
I am going to do a very brief update for October 13th. You could call this an update for October 11,12,13, and whatever other days I missed because not much has happened. #ukrdailyupdate
Near Kupyansk, Ukraine moved forward and appear to have liberated Pischane. I have no actual confirmation of this liberation, but Ukrainian troops are east of it and multiple Russian sources claims it is under Ukrainian control so whatever let's roll with it.
Russia has made a lot of blatantly false claims about retaking towns near Kreminna, but their claim today to have retaken Pischane (lol) and Chervonopopivka actually seem to be both reasonable and likely true. They claim to be attacking Terny, it's probably in the *direction of*.
Russians are moving around concrete blocks to build tan traps in Severodonetsk.
Russians are building a defensive line near Hirske. If you remember, Hirske was a town Russia could not break through and only fell when the entire rest of the line collapsed. So I guess Russia really, really does not want to have to fight for it a second time.
Some action in Kadiivka today. Ukrainian civilians spotted Russian artillery firing from this position to the northeast of the city. Ukraine destroyed hangars Russia used to repair broken vehicles on the missile marker.
In the Bakhmut area, Ukraine controls Ivanhrad and Opytne. I wrote about it here. People are saying Ukraine counter attacked in Opytne, this is not true. Russia never took or contested Opytne. Ukraine counter attacked Ivanhrad.
Otherwise you have your standard attacks in the Bakhmut area without notable change.
In the Donetsk area there is ongoing fighting in all the same areas as usual.
Ukraine is attacking south from both Orikhiv and Hulyaipole. Don't get excited and think this is some major offensive, it isn't.
Ukraine inflicted significant damage on Russian positions in Burchak, Tokmak, Kopani, Kinski Rozdory, and Berdyansk areas. (markers aren't exact). The Berdyansk hit reportedly destroyed four S-300 systems.
Ukraine had significant artillery strikes on the Antonovskyi Bridge, Nova Kakhovka, Kozatske, and Beryslav areas.
Russia had significant artillery strikes in the Pravdyne, Soldatske, Blahodatne, and more general M14 highway areas.
Ukraine attacked Ishchenka and Bruskynske, and Russia sent recon to Sukhyi Stavok.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets
Apr 15
I started the weekend with like 40 days of backlog. Ugh. I did 19 days. Meh. Here are the days. Image
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Read 19 tweets
Mar 19
Here are losses for February.

First, the total losses by category. You see significantly more losses for Russia than for Ukraine. This is the first month where Rubicon played a significant part of the Ukrainian losses. Image
Roughly 17% of Ukraine's losses in the month of February were from Rubicon (328 out of 1965). Primarily in Kursk.
Here you can see Tank, Infantry Fighting Vehicle, Armored Personnel Carrier, and MRAP losses by day through the month. Note that Russia uses few MRAPs. Image
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Read 7 tweets
Mar 6
While Trump’s team spreads defeatism and tries to blackmail Ukraine into surrender, Ukrainian soldiers on the battlefield remain unimpressed by the proclamations coming out of Washington Oblast.

Their actions speak louder than words.
In recent days, Ukraine has:

Recaptured Kotlyne
Liberated Pischane
Pushed into Shevchenko

These gains prove two critical points.
🔹 First: Ukraine still has the ability to seize the initiative.

Despite immense challenges, its military can concentrate forces, execute counterattacks, and maintain operational momentum—suggesting it retains significant reserves.

If the West falters, Ukraine can continue fighting until Russia collapses. Slowly trading land against Russian offensive potentials.

If the West finds its backbone, Ukraine can decisively defeat Russia and end the war on just terms.
Read 9 tweets
Feb 13
Europe could have invested 1-2 hundred billion dollars over the past 3 years, but instead they will have to invest 3-5 trillion over the next 20. I’ve talked about this many times in the past. The politicians made very unwise decisions because they were afraid.
Should have gone 100% all in on making Ukraine win from day 1. Full on everything. It would have fixed every problem. Countries still aren’t even doing this. Every single day you delay will cost you 100 or 1000 times more over the next few years.
You thought it cost too much to squeeze 20-30 billion dollars into your budget for 5 years. Imagine having to fit in 500 billion.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 7
There is absolutely no reason for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, at all, for any reason, in the year 2025. Any negotiations should start in mid 2026, when the Russian economy has imploded, their deficits are blasting off to the moon, and Russia can no longer fight.
Every country should be looking at the situation like this: we only have to get ukraine through the next 12-18 months. We need to throw in the money, weapons, and ammo available now to make this happen. This is not a forever war. There is 1 year left. We are 75% done.
Russia will have absolutely no ability to wage war in the year 2027. Zero ability. Bringing the war into 2027 should be the threat to Russia. If we supply Ukraine through to that time period, Russia risks absolute implosion.
Read 11 tweets

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