I am going to do a very brief update for October 13th. You could call this an update for October 11,12,13, and whatever other days I missed because not much has happened. #ukrdailyupdate
Near Kupyansk, Ukraine moved forward and appear to have liberated Pischane. I have no actual confirmation of this liberation, but Ukrainian troops are east of it and multiple Russian sources claims it is under Ukrainian control so whatever let's roll with it.
Russia has made a lot of blatantly false claims about retaking towns near Kreminna, but their claim today to have retaken Pischane (lol) and Chervonopopivka actually seem to be both reasonable and likely true. They claim to be attacking Terny, it's probably in the *direction of*.
Russians are moving around concrete blocks to build tan traps in Severodonetsk.
Russians are building a defensive line near Hirske. If you remember, Hirske was a town Russia could not break through and only fell when the entire rest of the line collapsed. So I guess Russia really, really does not want to have to fight for it a second time.
Some action in Kadiivka today. Ukrainian civilians spotted Russian artillery firing from this position to the northeast of the city. Ukraine destroyed hangars Russia used to repair broken vehicles on the missile marker.
In the Bakhmut area, Ukraine controls Ivanhrad and Opytne. I wrote about it here. People are saying Ukraine counter attacked in Opytne, this is not true. Russia never took or contested Opytne. Ukraine counter attacked Ivanhrad.
Otherwise you have your standard attacks in the Bakhmut area without notable change.
In the Donetsk area there is ongoing fighting in all the same areas as usual.
Ukraine is attacking south from both Orikhiv and Hulyaipole. Don't get excited and think this is some major offensive, it isn't.
Ukraine inflicted significant damage on Russian positions in Burchak, Tokmak, Kopani, Kinski Rozdory, and Berdyansk areas. (markers aren't exact). The Berdyansk hit reportedly destroyed four S-300 systems.
Ukraine had significant artillery strikes on the Antonovskyi Bridge, Nova Kakhovka, Kozatske, and Beryslav areas.
Russia had significant artillery strikes in the Pravdyne, Soldatske, Blahodatne, and more general M14 highway areas.
Ukraine attacked Ishchenka and Bruskynske, and Russia sent recon to Sukhyi Stavok.
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Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.
One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.
With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.
Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.
Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.
Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:
1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.