Here's the Treasury costings for the #MiniBudget
Around £45bn of tax cuts by 2026-27.
Abolition of additional rate of income tax already axed - reduction of £2bn from that total.
If there is a further tax cut U-turn today, what could go next?...
Around £45bn of tax cuts by 2026-27.
Abolition of additional rate of income tax already axed - reduction of £2bn from that total.
If there is a further tax cut U-turn today, what could go next?...
...speculation about corporation tax move reversal - would mean reduction of £18bn in cost of #miniBudget (blue)
But National Insurance cut has already gone through MPs this week, signalling £15bn (green) unlikely to be recouped...
But National Insurance cut has already gone through MPs this week, signalling £15bn (green) unlikely to be recouped...
...and bear in mind that @TheIFS has estimated the fiscal hole that needs to be filled by 2026-27 to get debt falling as a share of GDP at £62bn & stressed that even if the Chancellor now reversed *all* his #MiniBudget tax cuts it wouldn't be enough to fill it...
...now that IFS fiscal hole estimate were based on an extremely bleak UK GDP forecast with massive economic scarring for the economy over coming years - OBR might not be so pessimistic making the official projected fiscal hole smaller...
...but, nevertheles, these official and unofficial estimated numbers (and the fact that the NI reversal seems to irrevocable) suggests it's going to be *extremely* tough for the Chancellor to show debt falling as a share of GDP
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
