Most #HurricanIan deaths were completely avoidable. How do I know? A basic fact: Ian’s death toll REVERSED a trend in US that had minimized most hurricane drowning deaths. Most “hurricane” related deaths were no longer from drowning. Until Ian. 1/
We have gotten pretty sophisticated in hurricane prep and response that many hurricane related deaths tended to occur after the storm from things like carbon monoxide, car accidents, denied medical services, etc. Response planning has pivoted to address these new concerns. 2/
Some background here about dying “in” vs “because of” a hurricane. I do appreciate some peoples criticisms about the term “stupid deaths.” The Haitians coined it based on their lived experience, not yours. 3/
Anyway, how do people die? It matters. Since Ian, I have been struck by one simple fact: most of its victims died from drowning. How can that be? Why did Ian reverse years of success in response and evacuation planning learned after Katrina? 4/
Most drowning deaths occurred in Lee County which had a negligent, confused response. It ignored its own plan, weather modeling, the actions of surrounding communities and tried and true methods of communication. 5/
There will be a tendency to say “oh well everything was so confusing and hard” but I’m not buying it. We plan for predictable disasters so that there isn’t confusion. Ian was a devastating storm but nothing about it was novel. Except how its victims died. 6/6
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THREAD ON IAN’S DEAD: Of the 119 deaths so far due to #HurricaneIan, most died during the hurricane and most were elderly. Others died due to car accidents or putting up tarp, incidental deaths that would not have happened but for Ian. And then there was this jarring line: 1/
I write about understanding how people die. It isn’t good enough to simply give a number. How this person as compared to that person perished is relevant to understanding what we might do to prevent it in the future. From @TheAtlantic 2/
And here is a book interview for THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS with @williams_paige for @NewYorker about what is commonly called “stupid deaths,” a term coined by the Haitians to describe those deaths that could be avoided. How people die matters. 3/
For years, the notion of "managed retreat" -- utilizing post-disaster funding as a motivation to build away from high(er) risk areas -- had received little attention. Now, an inventory of our efforts to focus the conversation. @YahooNews#managedretreat 1/ news.yahoo.com/is-it-a-mistak…
Learn more. This is my first article on it from 2016 when I thought there might be a different president, more receptive to the idea. We lost years. 2/ democracyjournal.org/magazine/39/sm…
Our documentary from 2019 about Paradise, CA, fire and retreat. "Build back better" becomes "build back smarter." @MyRadarWX 3/
As I said, #HurricaneIan efforts will get political fast, the familiar politics of destruction. But this is inartfully phrased by VP and should be clarified. It does not reflect the law, nor important achievements by the Biden WH for fairer distribution of disaster relief. 1/
The law, the Stafford Act, is clear. Section 308, 42 USC 5151 below. The last phrase, "economic status," has always been interpreted as a prohibition on means testing for assistance. Assistance is based on level of uninsured loss -- not race, gender or socioeconomic status. 2/
One can disagree, but it is the law and it has precedent, policy and practice supporting it. It will confuse things in the field to suggest standards are changing midstream. But, before you pounce on me, the VP was reflecting (inartfully) an important shift led by Biden WH. 3/
Soon, search and rescue efforts will end and recovery efforts will take lead. It can be a heart wrenching moment, an admission that those lost are not likely to survive, but it is necessary.* This next phase, recovery, also has its guidelines and priorities. #HurricaneIan@cnn
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Just b/c I find this interesting doesn't mean you do, but it might be helpful because all of it look so disorganized and ad hoc. It is less so than it appears. 40K power lineman don't just show up in FL; they are part of mutual aid for this next phase. 2/
The recovery efforts are always exceptionally political, and not just Dem v. GOP. Local entities will compete with the state. Locals will compete with each other for resources. The wealthy will get more than they should; poorer communities will get less than they need. 3/
"Managed retreat" is the use of disaster relief funding to incentive people to move from their homes to safer areas, permanently. In 2019, @milesobrien and I explored this pressing issue for a @MyRadarWX documentary after the fires in Paradise, CA. 1/
You will hear a lot about "managed retreat" in days to come. Our disaster management system was based on a premise that disasters were random and rare. That is no longer true, but we still pay people to return to where they were before. My take in 2016. 2/ democracyjournal.org/magazine/39/sm…
Our insurance system, and the stop gap of the publicly funded National Flood Insurance Program, are inadequate to protect homeowners and the underinsured are harmed in so many ways. And still, we do the same thing over and over. 3/ cnn.com/2022/09/30/bus…
Hurricane preparation is not to be taken lightly. It isn't simply to protect from the storm itself, though. In recent years, most people in the US who die "in" a hurricane actually perish after the storm passes. We call these "stupid deaths," or indirect deaths. #hurricaneian 1/
I write about how people die in THE DEVIL NEVER SLEEPS because knowing how can help prepare us for the next time. As Ian grows, a threat comes from carbon monoxide poisoning from emergency generators. 2020 Hurricane Laura had 0 fatalities; 28 still died from faulty generators. 2/
This is what years of hurricane preparedness have taught us. We get better. The storm passes, but the threat remains. Preparation isn't about water or wind, often, but about gasses. Knowing this can mitigate harm because we can focus on the correct threat, a different devil. 3/