Thread by @MoriartyLab

The Oct 14 @COVID_19_Canada COVID Hazard Index and associated data are now live.

SEVERE: AB, BC, PEI
VERY HIGH: CAN, NS, ON
HIGH: MB, NB, NL, North, QC
ELEVATED: SK

Start wearing N95-type masks again.
Get your 4th vaccine dose ASAP.

covid19resources.ca/public-resourc…

@COVID_19_Canada Technical changes this week:

1. A bunch of data we use to calibrate global parameters for some index data were released this week (excess mortality from @StatCan_eng and seroprevalence from @COVIDimmunityTF). We do this monthly, but when we do there's some adjustment of numbers.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF 2. After analyzing the excess mortality released this week (to the end of July/22), it's clear that we saw considerable excess mortality in fast-reporting provinces this summer, coinciding with BA.5 overtaking BA.2, and a steady weekly increase in infections of people over 40.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF As a result, we've changed the colour and word scales for the Hazard Index.

The numbers themselves haven't changed, but we've shifted the thresholds we assign for different hazard levels to more clearly convey the true hazard.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF The slightly shifted scale also now aligns better with the words used by the @Ptbohealth Public Health Unit in their invaluable scale.

When their scale says risk is VERY HIGH, our score for Ontario will likely use the same words (most of the time--Peterborough isn't Ontario).

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth Main messages this week:

1. The COVID hazard for Canada is VERY HIGH

2. About 1 in every 36 people are infected (yikes)

WHAT TO DO:
1. Start/continue wearing high quality N95-type masks
2. Get your next COVID vaccine dose ASAP
3. Stay home if sick

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth Here are the number of new DAILY infections this week:

CAN 157K
AB 13K
BC 28K
MB 6K
NB 3K
North 150
NS 4K
ON 69K
PEI 1K
QC 31K
SK 1K

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth What are the consequences of these infections?

1. A LOT of people can't go to school or work because they're infected, OR because they are experiencing long-lasting symptoms making it hard to do daily life activities.

How many?

About 1 in every 32 people in Canada this week

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth What are the consequences of 157K new infections/day in Canada?

1. About 1 million people will be infected this week
2. About 5,800 people will be hospitalized.
3. About 260 will need intensive care.

How much will hospitalizations from infections this week cost?

$140 million

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth How will these hospitalizations affect the already staggering Canadian healthcare system?

On average, they will push hospitals across the country 9% over their safe operating capacity.

5,800 people who can't get hospital beds this week because they're in use for COVID patients.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth What are the consequences of 1 million new COVID infections in Canada this week?

At least 350 people will die from infections this week

That's about 5X more than weekly deaths than influenza.

Once again, COVID will be the number 3 cause of death in Canada this week.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth What are the consequences of 1 million new COVID infections in Canada this week?

About 3.5% of people infected may go on to experience symptoms lasting at least 4 weeks that are severe enough to limit daily life activities.

That's 35,000 people this week.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth Take care of yourself, your loved ones and your community.

Even if you're not worried for yourself, you can protect our healthcare system and save lives by avoiding getting infected and passing it on.

Please help protect healthcare by masking, testing, staying home when sick.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth If you have questions, you can always find us at a free bilingual Zoom session for people across the country.

Here's where to find us:
covid19resources.ca/discussions/

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth And for those who have been circulating our tables showing how COVID vaccines help prevent infections, hospitalizations, ICU admissions and deaths....

There's been an update from @UKHSA on waning of 3rd dose protection against severe outcomes.

I'll update the tables this week.

@COVID_19_Canada @StatCan_eng @COVIDimmunityTF @Ptbohealth @UKHSA Enjoy the rest of your weekend.

Take care of yourself and others.

You matter.

It's been so long since I've heard someone say this, but it's still true:

#TogetherWeCan

/fin