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Oct 18 • 13 tweets • 5 min read
Some Tuesday election updates.

Let's begin with an encouraging, record setting 1st day #earlyvote in GA. Just jawdropping turnout, intensity. 1/

Most governors are popular. Not an anti-incumbent, throw the bums out election. 2/

morningconsult.com/2022/10/11/whi…
Dem House and Senate candidate fundraising advantage a big deal, could be the difference in the home stretch.

Remember candidates get lower rates than outside groups - means you get more for your dollar. Ds likely to close w/more ads than Rs. 3/

New @MorningConsult poll:

- Dems lead 48-45, unchanged from last week
- Biden approval 46%, highest in 2022
- Dems have growing enthusiasm edge, improving scores on the economy 4/

morningconsult.com/2022-midterm-e…
Know there was a tough NYT poll for Dems but two GOP polls taken on the same days have Dem leads:

Fox 44-41
Public Opinion Strat 45-43

A third for Federalist showed it tied, w/Ds gaining.

Majority of polls taken last week had Dem leads. 5/

There an unprecedented number of prominent Republicans crossing over to support Dem candidates all over US.

This is a much bigger story than is understood. 6/

washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/…
New WaPo Hispanic poll best had best Dem numbers of the year.

D+27 is 6 pts higher than 2020 D+21 (via Pew).

Encouraging, but more work to do. 7/

Rs more like Wizard of Oz than Ukrainian Army. Should not fear them. 8/

With new polls showing R incumbents in IA, OK in the mid 40s, we are reminded that most Rs in competitive races are under 50, suggesting that that the GOP ceiling may be lower than they need to win the midterms. 9/

"Dems Hold Enthusiasm Edge: For the fifth week in a row, D voters are more likely than Rs to say they are “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic about voting in the midterm elections, 63% to 58%. The 5-point gap is the largest Dem advantage Morning Consult has recorded in 2022" 10/
Gas prices coming down despite efforts by Putin and Saudis to raise them just before our election: 11/
And if you somehow believed that R extremism was limited to abortion, Putin adoration, climate and our democracy and not bread and butter economic issues you would be wrong. 12/
People are voting in big numbers! So exciting!

Make sure you #voteearly. Helps us increase Dem turnout and our elections run more smoothly. It matters. 13/

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 19
Wed morning election update:
- majority of tracks have D leads, no movement to Rs (see below):
- Biden approval up 9-10 pts
- D candidates w/big cash advantage
- Another big #EarlyVote day in GA
- R crossing over to support Ds across US

It's a close election - keep working hard!
Here's @JoyAnnReid and I talking about this close, competitive election on @MSNBC last night.

Was a good conversation. Check it out.

Media friends,

if you suggest that higher gas prices are benefiting Republicans, it is incumbent upon you to complete the thought - this will once again put the GOP leadership in debt to hostile foreign powers, one of which is committing genocide on European soil.

Thank you.
Read 9 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 17
Been talking to reporters about politics for 30 years. Some reminders about the GOP pols spinning the election:

- they lost the last 2 elections by 6.5 pts
- many of their chosen primary candidates lost
- their candidates are being outraised by Ds
- they blew 2 House specials
- almost every prediction about they made about this "red wave" year has been wrong, and their candidates are underperforming across US
- they don't understand the abortion issue
- their party has been taken over by extremists
- their foundational project is lying about elections
In other words their simply isn't any reason to believe anything they are telling you about the election.

Entire party lives everyday in a land of MAGA make believe.

Media folks need to work a little harder.
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 15
After three kids and all sorts of travel/recreational sports experience it has become my firm belief that states need to start regulating youth sports, and work to cut down on the psychological and physical abuse that is so common and the corruption/graft. washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/10…
This new Yates report should kick off a national conversation on how to improve youth sports of all kinds, particularly for women.

We need to come up with a “lite” regulatory model that creates a higher floor and protects our kids.

theguardian.com/football/2022/…
Things my own family has seen:

- Exec of travel program stealing money, fall season collapsing

- drunk/hungover coach putting injured 10 year olds back into a game

- lack of field maintenance causing serious injury

- promised travel teams disappearing after season begins
Read 8 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 14
Dems up 63-36 (+27) with Hispanics in this @washingtonpost poll. This is the best Hispanic poll so far this year for Dems.

The others:
NBC/Telemundo +21
NYT +24
Pew +25

In 2020 Pew had Dems +21 w/Hispanics, Catalist +28. So here Dems at/above 2020 numbers. 1/
This Ds at/above 2020 w/Hispanics tracks what we're seeing in states with heavily Hispanic populations (outside FL).

In 2022 statewide races Dems at/above recent elections in AZ, CA, CO, NV, TX. NM gov may not match 2018 but still way ahead. 2/

In recent years Rs have suffered significant erosion in heavily Mexican-American AZ/CA/CO/NM/NV/TX.

If they can't keep making gains w/Hispanics here they will keep falling further behind as population grows.

These margins are huge problem for Rs here. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 12
From my conversations with people on campaigns in recent days a few observations:
- intensity over ending Roe is very real, may be most powerful force in the election right now
- Rs endorsing Ds to fight MAGA happening everywhere (below), is unprecedented 1/
- Dems candidate COH advantage significant; more money in hands of people closer to the ground, lowest unit rate means Rs have to spend much more to match Ds
- It's hard for quick and dirty polls to poll places with lots of young people and Spanish speakers (Nevada for example).
National party committees should be helping their campaigns make a few videos like this a week. Rs explaining why they have crossed over to support Ds. These are very powerful, speak to the moment.

Important innovation by @BetoORourke campaign.

Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
Oct 8
So have conducted a few really interesting interviews in recent days.

First spoke to @djrothkopf about Russia, and the nature of the conflict we now find ourselves in.

David is a brilliant guy, always learn so much from him.

ndn.org/david-rothkopf…
Spoke to @taraemcg, a pioneering digital strategist and founder of @CourierNewsroom.

This was a great conversation about countering the MAGA noise machine. It's clear we have a lot of to do.

Tara is so smart, so insightful. Do watch.

ndn.org/tara-mcgowan-c…
@taraemcg @CourierNewsroom Sat down with noted economist @robshapiro to talk about his new @monthly article, "Yes, Americans Are Better Off Under Biden."

We covered Rob's compelling data but broadened out into a discussion about Dems need to close the gap w/GOP on the economy.

ndn.org/americans-are-…
Read 7 tweets

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