Antoine FLAHAULT Profile picture
Oct 19 5 tweets 4 min read
1/5 - “#BQ11 est un sous-lignage #BQ1, lui-même sous-lignage de #BA5, lui-même sous-variant d’Omicron. […] La France semble faire la course en tête en Europe avec ce nouveau sous-variant #BQ11.”
actu.fr/societe/covid-…
2/5 - “#BQ11 pourrait bien venir contrecarrer la décrue épidémique qui s’amorce aujourd’hui avec le reflux de la 8e vague pandémique due au sous-variant #BA5 d’Omicron.”
3/5 - “#BQ11 représentait, mi-octobre, près de 40% des coronavirus séquencés, avec une augmentation très rapide : de quelques pourcents en septembre et de moins de 15% début octobre seulement. Il y a fort à parier qu’il sera dominant dans toute l’Europe avant la fin de l’année.”
4/5 - “Pour l’Agence de protection et de promotion de la santé de l’Ontario, province du Canada, le risque que présente actuellement #BQ11 (et #BQ1) en matière de transmissibilité, de réinfection et d’infection est élevé, relevant toutefois un degré d’incertitude élevé.”
5/5 - “Pour Santé Publique France, pour le moment, il est « encore trop tôt pour évaluer les caractéristiques de ce sous-lignage et son potentiel impact » et « à ce jour, aucun signal épidémiologique ou clinique n’a été associé à #BQ11, un sous-lignage de #BA5.”

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More from @FLAHAULT

Oct 21
1/4 – France (R-eff=0.96) is plateauing in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with medium mortality.
45,546 reported cases and 86 deaths/day by Oct 27, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 21 to 24:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 – Twelve mainland Régions are increasing/plateauing in their #COVID19 epid activ,low [medium-high] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.0)];
[Bg-Fr-C=0.96];
Brt=1.06;
[Ctre-V-L=1.06];
[Gd-E=1.02];
[Hts-de-Fr=1.01];
[IdF=1.03];
Nor=1.01;
[Nv-Aq=1.02];
Occ=1.05;
[P-de-L=1.04];
PACA=1.05. Image
3/4 –One mainland Région is still rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with very low mortality:
Corse (R-eff=1.11). Image
Read 6 tweets
Oct 20
1/4 - “On aimerait que la veille sanitaire ne repose pas que sur les tests parce que si les gens ne se font pas tester, les chiffres ne reflètent pas la réalité. L’Etat pourrait envisager d’autres mesures complémentaires comme l’étude des eaux usées.”
humanite.fr/societe/covid-…
2/4 - “On a les mêmes inquiétudes pour les patients immuno-déprimés pour lesquels la mortalité reste élevée,notamment parce qu’ils ne répondent pas suffisamment aux vaccins. Pour eux, porter un masque FFP2 peut ne pas être suffisant pour se protéger dans des transports bondés.”
3/4 - “L’accès aux antiviraux et aux anticorps monoclonaux reste très insuffisant et inégalitaire selon les territoires et les hôpitaux. Sur ce plan-là, rien n’a bougé.”
Read 4 tweets
Oct 20
1/4 – France (R-eff=0.98) has reached a peak in its #COVID19 cases, while still increasing in mortality.
48,990 cases and 88 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 26, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 20 to 23:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImageImage
2/4 – Twelve mainland Régions are increasing/plateauing in their #COVID19 epid activ,low [medium-high] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.06)];
[Bg-Fr-C=0.99];
Brt=1.06;
[Ctre-V-L=1.06];
[Gd-E=1.04];
[Hts-de-Fr=1.03];
[IdF=1.04];
Nor=1.03;
[Nv-Aq=1.04];
Occ=1.06;
[P-de-L=1.05];
PACA=1.06.
3/4 –One mainland Région is rising in its #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low mortality:
Corse (R-eff=1.14).
Read 6 tweets
Oct 19
1/9 - “[Except] during the 1918 influenza pandemic, World War II and the HIV crisis, life expectancy in the U.S. has had gradual upward trajectory over the past century. But that progress has steeply reversed in the past two years.” #COVID19
scientificamerican.com/article/the-u-…
2/9 - “U.S. life expectancy fell by a total of 2.7 years between 2019 and 2021 to 76.1 years—the lowest it has been since 1996, according to provisional data recently released by the US-CDC. The drop was 3.1 years for male individuals and 2.3 years for female ones.”
3/9 - “Native peoples saw the biggest decline—a staggering 6.6 yrs. But every racial and ethnic group suffered: life expectancy decreased by 4.2 yrs in the Hispanic population, by 4 yrs in the Black pop, by 2.4 yrs in the other White pop and by 2.1 yrs in the Asian pop.”
Read 9 tweets
Oct 19
1/9 – Oct 19 to Oct 25 –
"Around the #COVID19 World in 80 Seconds"!
Daily epidemic 7-day forecasting for 300+ countries/ territories on our dashboard:tinyurl.com/COVIDdashb
Data source: coronavirus.jhu.edu & ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Powered by @ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience ImageImage
2/9 – Western Europe
The #COVID19 epidemic activity is:
- Surging/rising in FL (R-eff=1.32)/ LUX=1.10;
- Increasing in CH=1.09; DE=1.07; ICL=1.06;
- Plateauing/slow landing in: GR=1.04; FR=1.02; SP=1.01; IT=1.0; UK=1.0; DK=1.0; IRL=0.98/BE=0.94; NL=0.93; AU=0.93. ImageImageImageImage
3/9 – East-Central Europe
- Landing towards its #COVID19 safety zone in Slovakia (R-eff=0.89); Slovenia=0.88; Serbia=0.86; Lithuania=0.85; Latvia=0.83; CZ=0.80; Ukraine=0.78; Russia=0.71;
- Plateauing in Bulgaria=1.01; Croatia=0.95; Hungary=0.95. Image
Read 11 tweets
Oct 18
1/4 – France (R-eff=1.06) is reaching a plateau in its #COVID19 epidemic activ, increase in mortality.
61,975 cases and 83 deaths/day to be reported by Oct 24, if at same pace.
Regional forecast for Oct 18 to 21:
tinyurl.com/COVIDfrance
Powered by:@ISG_UNIGE & @SDSCdatascience
2/4 – Eleven mainland Régions are increasing/plateauing in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [or medium] mortality:
[AURA (R-eff=1.08)];
[Bg-Fr-C=1.05];
[Bret=1.06];
[Ctre-V-L=1.09];
Hts-de-Fr=1.02.
[IdF=1.05];
Norm=1.02;
Nouv-Aq=1.07;
Occit=1.07;
P-de-L=1.04;
PACA=1.08.
3/4 –Two mainland Région are surging [or rising] in their #COVID19 epidemic activity, with low [or medium] mortality:
Corse (R-eff=1.20);
[Grand-Est=1.10].
Read 6 tweets

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