OK, a quick 🧵 on #ToryLeadership permutations
This isn’t about what I want to happen, or what ethically should happen, but is about what could well actually happen - basically there are no value judgments in here
This isn’t about what I want to happen, or what ethically should happen, but is about what could well actually happen - basically there are no value judgments in here
The Q: which MPs that could stand will get 100 nominations?
Sunak - highly likely
Johnson - possible (he’s already at 41)
Mordaunt - probably
Wallace probably doesn’t want to run - and that’d be to Sunak’s advantage
Braverman, Badenoch: unlikely to get 100
Sunak - highly likely
Johnson - possible (he’s already at 41)
Mordaunt - probably
Wallace probably doesn’t want to run - and that’d be to Sunak’s advantage
Braverman, Badenoch: unlikely to get 100
So that leaves us with 2 or 3 candidates in the MP ballot
Johnson
Sunak
Mordaunt
- or -
Sunak
Mordaunt
- or -
Sunak
Johnson
(I cannot see how Sunak doesn’t get to 100)
Johnson
Sunak
Mordaunt
- or -
Sunak
Mordaunt
- or -
Sunak
Johnson
(I cannot see how Sunak doesn’t get to 100)
So what happens?
If Johnson is in there, he wins
If it is Sunak-Mordaunt it is hard to know. Sunak would probably prevail among MPs, but then Mordaunt would among members - we’d have a Liz Truss situation, but perhaps with Sunak being willing to support Mordaunt?
If Johnson is in there, he wins
If it is Sunak-Mordaunt it is hard to know. Sunak would probably prevail among MPs, but then Mordaunt would among members - we’d have a Liz Truss situation, but perhaps with Sunak being willing to support Mordaunt?
So - if I have read this right - even though Sunak is the most likely to win among MPs, he’s still got an uphill struggle among party members - even if he faces Mordaunt. If he faces Johnson, forget it
As the Germans say, “schlimmer geht immer” - it can always get worse. Johnson winning would *definitely* be worse. Mordaunt we don’t really know. And the one who’s likely the least bad - Sunak - is probably still not going to prevail
Oh and of course Johnson could win, and then a month later the Privileges Committee reports, and all the scandals about him misleading Parliament break out all over again…
There is of course beyond this short term “who will prevail” discussion, a wider one about who could even govern
There will be some Tory MPs who will cross the floor or resign the whip if Johnson wins - but enough to actually deny Johnson a majority? That’s hard to say
There will be some Tory MPs who will cross the floor or resign the whip if Johnson wins - but enough to actually deny Johnson a majority? That’s hard to say
It’s going to be one hell of a week, and UK politics is not out of the woods just yet...
/ends
/ends
P.S. If the final two is Mordaunt-Sunak, whoever is 2nd might drop out. If Johnson is the second of two there’s no way he drops out. Ego too big.
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