Thread by @jonworth

My diagrams are back!

Not sure if this is 🎉 or 😢 or 😡 but hey ho, this Tory leadership contest only lasts a week

And we all want to know: who is going to win! #Toryleadership

So here’s my effort to work that out…

Explanations in the 🧵

All versions of these diagrams, calculations will be available at:
jonworth.eu/nextprimeminis…

Version 1.0.0, headline figures
Sunak - 4️⃣3️⃣% chance
Johnson - 3️⃣4️⃣% chance
Mordaunt - 1️⃣3️⃣% chance
Someone else - 2️⃣% chance
Chaos as procedure rendered invalid - 7️⃣% chance

This diagram is rather different to the ones in the past, for there are three inputs - assessing whether each of the 3 candidates who are favourites will indeed run, and then if they will actually get to the ballot of Tory members

The crux is this:
- if Johnson runs (currently .5-.5), he likely gets the 100 MP nominations, and then wins
- Sunak will almost certainly run (currently .9-.1), will get the 100 nominations, but would lose to Johnson

- Mordaunt’s chances increase markedly if Johnson does not run, but she will struggle to beat Sunak among MPs, but might fare marginally better among members

There are a few assumptions
- Regardless of what happens among MPs, Johnson will not stand aside if he makes the final two, Sunak likely won’t have to as he will win among MPs, but Mordaunt might stand aside

- No other candidate currently (Wallace, Braverman, Badenoch) is currently in with a chance - this can only really change if 1 or 2 of the frontrunners choose not to stand

- There is a chance online voting failure blows the whole thing off course

And the limitations
- This only goes as far as 28th October, and not beyond - so that Johnson wins and then is PM but has to resign due to the conclusions of the Privileges Committee is not on the diagram, but that part explains why it is currently 50-50 that he runs

- We have scant little data to work with, so this is all based on a lot of educated guess work. It is however based on the assumption that Tory MPs still maintain the idea in their heads that Boris Johnson is an electoral asset, even if actual evidence for this does not exist

As ever I will update these diagrams as the race progresses

Feedback is most welcome - but *please* don’t just go “you’re wrong” - that is not very handy! Please tell me what arrows are missing, or probabilities are wrong - then we all get a better outcome!

/ends

If you put chances of Johnson running at 1 (rather than the current .5/.5) his chance of becoming the next PM then becomes 7️⃣0️⃣%

If he runs, he’s likely to win…

New version already out!

https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1583471077602525184