Thread by @fwildecricket

🇦🇺- 🇳🇿 tactics thread. With 80% chance of rain forecast both sides should consider XIs for a shortened game with a frontline bowler for an all rounder the obvious move with five proper bowlers more important than batting depth as the game gets shorter. #T20WorldCup

Australia’s XI is more settled than NZ’s who have lots of decisions around their middle order, team & bowling balance. Sodhi & Santner match up nicely v Australia’s RHs so Bracewell may miss out despite good form but could play ahead of Chapman. #T20WorldCup

Warner is, as he will often be, the key wicket to protect Australia’s RHs from right-to-left spin & mess with NZ spin overs. Boult & Southee will seek inwards movement v Finch’s front pad early on. Maxwell & David v Lockie’s high pace will be interesting match-ups. #T20WorldCup

Allen is a changing of the guard at the top for NZ & will be their most attacking opener since McCullum. Starc will fight fire with fire early but is carrying poor PP form into the comp. Allen’s aggression could alleviate pressure on Conway & Kane’s slower starts. #T20WorldCup

Like Warner for Oz, Conway shields NZ’s top order RHs from < spin but Australia shouldn’t be dissuaded from using Zampa. Without Mitchell NZ’s middle order is enforceable with high pace & bounce. Cummins—who much prefers LHs—should enjoy NZ’s LH-heavy middle order. #T20WorldCup

Countering the ‘fifth bowler’ allocation will be key in this game. For NZ that means targeting Stoinis, Marsh & Maxwell. For Australia that means Warner’s role in countering Sodhi & Santner & forcing NZ to bowl more of Neesham. #T20WorldCup

Both teams have gone with their “base XI”. NZ resist the temptation to pick Bracewell despite his form: his bowling isn’t as valuable v RH-heavy Australia & with Sodhi & Santner matching up well there’s no need for Milne. Australia are as expected. #T20WorldCup

Ridiculous start from NZ & Allen. The first over was always going to be explosive: Starc was going full & Finn was gunna take him on. Both batters used their feet really nicely v Hazlewood & Cummins - hitting them off their lengths. Zampa will be introduced soon. #T20WorldCup

This has been a breathless start to the Super 12s. Heavyweight T20 cricket. New Zealand won the early rounds on the back of Allen's extreme aggression & power but that's a seriously gutsy ball from Hazlewood to land Australia their first punch of the contest. #T20WorldCup

New Zealand have to be careful of sleepwalking through these early middle overs. They've got an opportunity to post a huge total but pairing Williamson & Conway could see a lull. They need to keep their foot on the gas - particularly against the fifth bowler. #T20WorldCup

The partnership between Allen & Conway brought 56 runs off 25 balls (RR 13.44); Conway & Williamson's partnership scored 69 runs off 53 balls (RR 7.80). The start was so good that NZ are still in a great position but that partnership might hurt them in two hours. #T20WorldCup

With left-handers paired Australia might have considered bowling Maxwell one over instead of completing Stoinis' quota - although Conway is strong v away spin. The two left-handers should bring Australia's cutters into play at the death - especially from Cummins. #T20WorldCup

Conway's value v spin in this New Zealand side was on full display today: he scored 32 off Zampa's 17 balls which played a big role in him being able to keep NZ's head above water while he was paired with Williamson: Conway scored 46 off 30 in that partnership. #T20WorldCup

That's a huge score from NZ. Allen & Conway were outstanding. Our PitchViz model forecasts that 173 is par - you can add around 10 for irregular dimensions but that still leaves NZ a healthy 20 above par. Slower balls went at 6 runs per over; pace on went at 12.60. #T20WorldCup

It's hard to overstate the importance of that wicket. Not only is Warner a brilliant player but with Australia's lone top order left-hander gone Sodhi & Santner can now operate freely against the right-handers, who largely struggle against away spin. #T20WorldCup

Australia's probability of qualifying for the SFs will go from 55% before today to 34% if they lose & that's not even factoring in the potential NRR hit. As discussed in this thread last night: this is a brutal tournament format. #T20WorldCup

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