Thread by @fwildecricket

🇮🇳-🇵🇰 tactical thread. As with Aus-NZ yesterday this is a huge game that carries a massive qualification swing with it. If Pakistan win their SF probability goes from 39% to 59%; if India win their SF probability goes from 55% to 71%. #T20WorldCup

India v Pakistan has traditionally pitted India’s batting strength v Pakistan’s bowling might: this is as true today as it ever has been. Under Dravid India have become a more aggressive batting unit while Pakistan's bowling attack is arguably the best in the world. #T20WorldCup

Pakistan’s attack is the world's fastest & has superb role coverage but India’s batting order is incredibly strong against pace & bounce. However, Pakistan’s primary spinners both turn the ball from right-to-left which matches up very well with India’s right-handers. #T20WorldCup

India are very reliant on their batting Powerplay for their success (no WC team has a bigger difference between PP RpW when they win & lose than India). Shaheen’s new ball spell—as it was in Dubai—will once again be massive. Expect full lengths, pace & swing. #T20WorldCup

It’ll be fascinating to see how India, & in particular Rohit, plays Shaheen. Rohit has led from the front since becoming captain, increasing his Powerplay SR from 131 to 144 so he’ll want to take him on but against Shaheen’s pace & swing he’s playing with fire. #T20WorldCup

Pakistan’s spinners will play a big role against India’s RH heavy team. Suryakumar will play a key role in negating this threat: he’s superb in-to-out which helps him counter away spin. India may also promote LH Axar to attack spin & delay DK’s entry point. #T20WorldCup

Pakistan’s batting Powerplay will be a massive part of the game. Their entire batting strategy is predicated on the solidity & consistency of their openers; India’s bowling attack is slightly front-loaded with all their quicks except Harshal being new ball options. #T20WorldCup

As always with Pakistan, a key factor in the game will be how effectively they deploy their batters in different phases. Haider, Nawaz & Shadab should be the spin-hitters; Iftikhar, Asif the pace hitters. How Pakistan use Shan, if he plays, will be fascinating. #T20WorldCup

Shan provides Pakistan with a top-order LH which could protect the RHs from < spin but if Pakistan get off to a good start there’s an argument Shan should slide below the more aggressive spin hitters. Shan is best used as a firewall if they lose an early wicket. #T20WorldCup

India will be relieved to have won the toss & chasing. Since the start of 2018 they've shown a bigger preference for chasing in terms of results than any Full Member team. Pakistan marginally prefer chasing but not nearly to the same degree as India. #T20WorldCup

India picking Ashwin over Chahal is a significant selection. If they're preferring Ashwin for a match v Pakistan who are RH-dominant then Ashwin is likely to be their number one spinner. With Harshal not picked, Ashwin also lends batting depth. #T20WorldCup

By leaving out Harshal (& picking Ashwin over Chahal) India's bowling is very front-loaded - all six bowlers can operate in the Powerplay & only Arshdeep is a regular & effective death bowler in the IPL. #T20WorldCup

The front-loaded nature of India's attack places even greater emphasis on the first half of Pakistan's innings. If they can get to their classic territory of 70 for 1 after 10 they'll feel like they can kick on in the second half of the innings. #T20WorldCup

In T20 Powerplays since the 2016 World Cup, Babar averages 30 against in-swing and 85 against out swing while Rizwan averages 85 against in-swing and 62 against out swing. The in-swinger to Babar is the danger-ball here. #T20WorldCup

The inswinger it is. Outstanding delivery from Arshdeep, excellent start from India with Bhuvi also hitting good areas in the first over. This is exactly the situation where Shan has value to Pakistan as an early wicket firewall. #T20WorldCup

Pakistan simply have to find a way through this period & out the other side without more damage. It doesn't matter if it looks ugly but they have to navigate these choppy waters. Calmer seas await when the swing fades because India's bowling is very front-loaded. #T20WorldCup

What an incredible spell of new ball bowling from Arshdeep. Huge swing, immaculate control & then a surprise and well-directed bouncer. It might not be 140 kph but it's super skillful bowling. Rizwan averages 60 against bouncers; getting him out hooking is so rare. #T20WorldCup

Bouncers could continue to play a role. Since the start of 2018 only Zim & Ire average less v bouncers than Pakistan & they struggled against them v Ind recently. The large square boundaries also bring them into play. Hardik & Shami could use them through the middle. #T20WorldCup

India have found 1.81° of swing in the opening ten overs. That is the sixth most swing in the opening ten overs of a World Cup innings on record & the most since 2014. Conditions & some beautiful wrist positions combining to produce a perfect swing storm. #T20WorldCup

60-2 after 10 overs is obviously not ideal but it's also not as bad as it could've been. By only losing two wickets Pakistan still have the resources to kick on. They've got to take the spin on in these next few overs. Iftikhar's shown improving range v spin lately. #T20WorldCup

There's that spin range. Huge hitting from Iftikhar who looks so good when he comes down the track & then benefits from Axar dropping short. 21 off the over &—for the first time today—Pakistan are favourites to win this match at 53%. #T20WorldCup

Good decision from Pakistan to send Shadab here. He's a low value wicket & can continue to attack pace & spin through this middle phase. Nawaz is weaker v pace & would have seen Pakistan pair left-handers. #T20WorldCup

Hardik has been superb; Pakistan have lost 3 for 7 and the match has swung back towards India who are now 64% to win. Delaying Asif's entry point with Nawaz made sense but Rohit quickly pounced on the left-hand pairing & Ashwin has rushed through the final spin over. #T20WorldCup

Asif or bust for Pakistan now. India's lengths to him will be interesting. He thrives on fuller balls & the dimensions at the MCG should encourage them to go into the pitch. #T20WorldCup

There you go. Another brilliant short ball from Arshdeep. India's plans have been absolutely spot on today - particularly their use of the bouncer to a Pakistan side who have clear issues against them. #T20WorldCup

Pakistan's lower order hitting has really improved this year. This cameo from Shaheen is the difference between an under-par total and par one. These are crucial late runs. #T20WorldCup

https://twitter.com/fwildecricket/status/1575366565918294017

PitchViz par for this game is 166. You can knock a few off that to account for the large boundaries at the MCG. With 159 Pakistan are probably bang on par for the conditions & that's their gameplan. The batters have done their job. Now, over to the bowlers. #T20WorldCup

Unlike Ind who had four quicks, Pak only have three so rely on eight overs of spin. In the first inns pace went at 6.18 & spin at 11. Easy in hindsight but Wasim Jr for Haider would've suited conditions better; although SLA/leg spin matches up well v Ind RHs. #T20WorldCup

We wondered how Rohit would play against Shaheen - he's put his ego (& backlift!) away and is playing very carefully. Sensible from India's captain. With eight overs of spin, surviving the pace & capitalising v spin is India's best route to victory. #T20WorldCup

T20 does not get better than this. Two heavyweights trading blows. First, iceman Surya pulls Rauf off the front foot but Rauf is breathing fire & even Surya - who has more time against high pace than anyone - is rushed by the following ball. Stupidly good cricket. #T20WorldCup

Axar sent in at five is good from India. He's got decent numbers against left-arm spin & delays Hardik & DK's entry points. Axar has got issues against pace & bounce but Pakistan will have to reallocate their overs if they shuffle pace earlier. #T20WorldCup

This is why Axar's wicket was so important. He has superb numbers against left-arm spin. With Hardik & Virat now paired Nawaz will be able to operate more freely. #T20WorldCup