Thread by @Scot126126

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 Yes, I have. I'd firstly refer you to the Canaccord and WH Ireland analysts' risked/unrisked models. Canaccord has a risked NPV of 300p and WH Ireland is c.180p (from memory?). Unrisked NPVs get you to 800p-1400p per share. 1/
$panr $pthrf #panr

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 The question you pose illustrates exactly the dilemma which $panr presents to the market. Using the traditional risked/unrisked E&P valuation methodology, the sheer scale of $panr's OIP and Technically Recoverable Resource means that even if a low risk of success..2/
#panr $pthrf

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...is attached to the project's potential value, a number is delivered which is at least double that of the current SP. Removing the risked calculation altogether leads to telephone numbers of NPV.
In the scenario where Alkaid-2 delivers a commercial flow, I contend...3/
$panr

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...the analysts will have no choice but to increase the Chance of Success which will, in turn, lead to fairly hefty and dramatic upgrades to their fair value target price for $panr's equity. For example, you could easily see an upgrade from 300p to 500p on the Alkaid-2 LTPT. 4/

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 How does the market react to that? Does it remain happy for such a discount to fair value remaining despite the mounting evidence of the project's commercial viability? My answer is that there will be a tipping point. Whether it's in the days/weeks following a positive...5/
$panr

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...flow rate from Alkaid-2 or whether it arrives during the upcoming winter season, I don't know. But I *do* know that the market will be compelled to reassess its current scepticism if/when the supporting data continues to arrive.
My personal model? 6/
$panr #panr $pthrf

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 Based on the 2022 webinars, discussion of *potential* upgrades to the OIP and recoverable resource figures, an upgrade to RF using secondary and tertiary techniques, using $90 oil....I can comfortably get to a SP in excess of 2000p. What IRR might an acquiror demand...7/
$panr

@David37655174 @chmok @contrarian8888 ...I dunno? But this is the *potential* upside this investment case *could* deliver to shareholders. Which is why I fully understand those who declare that the risk/reward calculation, for investors looking currently at $panr under 100p, has never looked better. DYOR. /end
#panr