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contrarian 8888 Profile picture
@contrarian8888
Oct 23, 2022 • 7 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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#INDIA $IBN $INDA #NIFTYBANK. Wishing all my Indian friends a Happy Diwali. Thought it worth sharing some interesting charts on india. Firstly, for those bullish oil- India is extremely susceptible to oil prices. In addition, India equities relative to bonds are highly Image
Inferior today Image
Now interestingly, Foreigners remain super long financials (that is where the $ will come from) and $IBN, despite posting strong results yesterday, they have been sequentially flat for 2 qtrs. Image
Risk appetite remains super high (contrast that with the US where AAII bull bear are at record lows for some time). Image
And valns relative to MSCI asia usually are at a 29% premium (given better returns) but are now at a shocking 89%. Yes i get Asia and particularly China has issues and India looks attractive but tell me this is not way in the price. One of the noted bears @arabicatrader had a Image
Spaces event yesterday and i barely saw more than a handful of participants. Whereas some of the bullish spaces (on india) are jam packed.They don’t ring a bell at the top but this sure looks super frothy. In any case this is my words of wisdom (or stupidity) on this special day
Spaces event yesterday and I barely saw more than a handful of participants.Whereas some of the bullish spaces (on india) are jam packed.They don’t ring a bell at the top but this sure looks super frothy. In any case these are my words of wisdom (or stupidity) on this special day

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More from @contrarian8888

contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Mar 7, 2023
$PANR $PTHRF My silence yesterday on arguably disappointing news was so that I could process my own thoughts without the noise from social media. As a contrarian investor I've always mentioned that 1. pls do your own DD and 2. I dont get paid for this- i am just sharing what I am
doing with my own $. The nature of many of my many winning trades is taking ideas where consensus is extremely -ve (kweb march 2022 and Oct 22) or AR when gas looked like it was going to 0 in feb 20 or even recently $rig when some folks called me charlatans &
that it would be filing chapter any day. By the very nature of my investing you are going to get some ideas wrong. _and i have no problem saying im wrong eg $asps which i mentioned i got out at a small loss beg jan 23 if i felt that was the case here with $panr. Many of my big
Read 8 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Mar 5, 2023
$BTU. Interesting perspective from someone i definitely respect. My 2 cents and why I respectfully disagree on selling. At a shade above 1x ebitda , with 70% of the market cap at the end of the year in cash there isnt much residual value baked into the stock. @JohnPolomny argues
That coal will be impacted from falling gas prices. I’d argue that has already happened and if you read this months @Go_Rozen section on gas you will see that gas has significant structural reasons for a strong decade and the current abnormal weather and Freeport closure is not
A reason to get overly bearish gas (and as a result coal). Another argument by john is that capital returns is uncertain- id argue the discount you have today IS BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY- so why not wait a few months and then benefit as that cloud lifts. And finally John argues
Read 5 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Feb 23, 2023
$XLE $XLK As a keen observer of sentiment, I have have to say the continued rally in tech and sell off in energy is befuddling. Its not like i didnt realise that sentiment for tech was extremely weak- pretty close to the lows i did cover a lot of my $TSLA
short (
In addition around $130 i cut all my $snow as well. During late dec and early jan i was questioned why given it seemed dead certain that TSLA was going to $50 or less etc. That being said, I have to admit I probably reentered my shorts way too early- missing the fact that
Read 17 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Dec 4, 2022
Nothing like seeing the bulls thump their chests. Meanwhile on a score of other charts it sure looks like a reversal may be at hand. The loud bears have all been silenced and nothing like a rug pull in December to hurt the most folks….
Positioning bullish wise back to Aug levels
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
$XLE $KWEB Great article by @OpenSquareCap open.substack.com/pub/openinsigh…
The china opening will be 2 steps forward 1 step backwards. So i found it fascinating that the dumbest investors this past decade- the HF that have managed to underperform for over a decade have underperformed YTD as well. (US L/S down more than S&P ytd despite underperforming up
Markets every year for last 10! Guess QE is an excuse and QT is also an excuse lol. Anyway energy was the largest selling in 5 mos. So if the HF are over reacting to the china covid news and given their track record it makes total sense to listen to @OpenSquareCap and short
Read 4 tweets
contrarian 8888 Profile picture
Nov 15, 2022
$KWEB $INDA $IBN about a month ago i went on a long series of tweets about india vs china. Well although slightly early on china, I doubled down on the Hu cathartic event and china has come screaming back. Meanwhile India has been a massive dog (up just few % whilst many garbage
Us tech names have screamed higher (eg $SNOW etc). So i have top sliced my China posn (u dont go broke taking profits) and covered india- not because i dont think it will underperform but coz some of the US tech shorts are now starting to look more attractive. India did its job
Basically do nothing and preserve your short book and not blow u up with a massive CPI rally. However now its time to increase the beta of the short book as my HF peers- faced with Nov 15 redemption notices and a shitty year are degrossing and providing me an opportune time to
Read 4 tweets

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