1/ Once again I'm going into the Monday open with more leverage than I should have, playing for more #uranium upside. Pulling out the crystal ball, I see the dollar as the key to success or failure of what I'd now describe as a nascent rally, just taking off.
2/ There were plenty of signs last week that a rotation into #uranium has actually begun...but so far it's a fragile rally subject to the whims of the USD and broad markets.
3/ The evidence points to a broad market rally now, maybe through year-end. But commodities in general are facing serious recession fears....the actual signs for that are there, although the signals are not all fully aligned for that.
4/ A Fed pivot would make the markets go insane...but my best case for something like that would be the previously telegraphed 75 bps move, followed by some new dovish jawboning about the next raise, telegraphed at 50 bps....but possibly being reconsidered now.
5/ The dollar is at a critical place. If it continues down, especially if it breaks below 11.57 , #uranium looks good to me for more rally. If the dollar breaks up, this will probably take most u names down into what I expect would be a final bottom....a great buy zone.
6/ I will be watching closely tomorrow and depending on what the dollar does I might raise quite a bit of cash, and close some of my more speculative positions. Don't want to, but it might make sense.
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