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Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
@AndrewPerpetua
Oct 23, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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I have a short update today because not very much changed on the ground. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
First, this part makes me physically uncomfortable because it goes against info I have from **all** of my sources, both Russian and Ukrainian, but it is hard to argue with the satellite images: This whole area east of Makiivka is a big question mark.
Ukraine posted a video destroying Russian equipment in this area, and the satellite images show it had to have happened after October 19th.
My primary discomfort with this news stems from the large number of reports I have from the past 72 hours where Ukraine was operating in and around Makiivka. It is possible they seized all of this gray area in the past 4 days. But I need more satellite images (and good weather).
I learned that Russia is attacking Bilohorivka from two angles, which explains Ukraine claiming to repell attacks near Zolotarivka.
Everything else is pretty much the same. Russia attacking all over the Bakhmut area without success.
Lots of fighting around Avdiivka and Donetsk.
BTW, Wargonzo stepped on a pedal mine and suffered a foot injury somewhere in this general area. They claim near "Vodyane", but it is more likely near Opytne. The western portion of Opytne and eastern portion of Vodyane practically touch each other.
Ukraine is continuing their pressure in the south, probing out of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv.
PETAL. its a PETAL mine. 🦋

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 11
Frankly I think the fastest way to end the war in Ukraine is not by sending tanks or by idiotic peace proposals. The fastest way is to set up factories across europe to produce 1000-2000 long range strike drones per day, and launch hundreds if not thousands of drones into Russia every single day until the country collapses. If they think sending 500 drones into Ukraine is a threat, see how they respond when 3000 drones fly into Russia.
With this many drones you can hammer every single factory, powerplant, substation, oil refinery, and mine in russia relentlessly.
Europe had a million drone program, to supply 1 million fpv drones. Fuck fpv drones. Have a 1 million drone program to supply 1 million strike drones. That's your million drones.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Dec 3
The "stupid westerners, sanctions do not work, we smuggle goods in illegally. muahaha, Russia unstoppable" people tickle me. Sanctions are not for stopping goods entirely, they are for increasing friction because the resources you spend smuggling are resources not spent growing
People fundamentally don't understand the purpose of a sanction. Sanctions are not to stop the war now, although they do damage Russia, the real goal of a sanction is long term economic damage to permanently shrink their economic growth on the timescale of decades.
The sanction is basically saying "okay, you're a threat to me today, and maybe I can't do much about it now, but I will shrink you and outgrow you so in 50-100 years you are no longer a threat to me at all". It is a long term play.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Nov 1
The Russians claim they shoot down Ukrainian aircraft the moment the missile leaves the tube, but we're supposed to believe they shot down two Black Hawks on Tuesday and only announced it after Ukraine leaked Black Hawk footage on Friday. These Black Hawks join the 650 F-16s and 450,000 M777s Russia has 'destroyed.'
GUYS. I AM GOING TO POST A VIDEO WHERE I WILL BLUR THE UNIT LOGOS TO SHIT SO NOBODY CAN TELL I STOLE THE VIDEOS FROM THE ARCHIVE AND THEN POST IT TO THE INTERNET SAYING I KILLED ALL THE SPECIAL FORCES
And then media outlets and super smart think tank people all over the world will believe me for some reason and then everyone will be like omg all the special forces died.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 18
Guys I took my division and charged them into combat and while we lost 50% of our armored vehicles and 45% of our infantry are dead, and several of our HQs were destroyed and most of our best officers are dead, we captured a village where 200 once lived so we’re winning the war.
Tomorrow we will send our next division to assault the next village. That one had a population of 1200. Its actually considered a huge city, when you think about it. If we can capture that, we will send our third division to capture the hamlet behind it.
Every day we advance. That means we’re winning.
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Aug 21
This is what Russia does. A country that only exports oil, gas, and war. This is the city of Marinka. Image
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Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Jul 26
I wrote 2 years ago about why I was worried about Molniya drones. They are long range and capable of very large warheads. For whatever reason they were oddly scarce for a while, but they have become very common items on the battlefield and exactly everything I feared.
They can destroy a house in a single hit. Even small concrete buildings. They can dive straight down into dugouts, fly along trenches and fly into bunkers. They are being used to target infantry now, too. Russia clearly has a lot of them and are using them to destroy things that used to require helicopters.
They cost around $1000 each, roughly 2x a base level drone or roughly the same price as a higher end fpv drone. But they can carry a 6-7kg bomb and can fly over 40km.
Read 6 tweets

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