First, this part makes me physically uncomfortable because it goes against info I have from **all** of my sources, both Russian and Ukrainian, but it is hard to argue with the satellite images: This whole area east of Makiivka is a big question mark.
Ukraine posted a video destroying Russian equipment in this area, and the satellite images show it had to have happened after October 19th.
My primary discomfort with this news stems from the large number of reports I have from the past 72 hours where Ukraine was operating in and around Makiivka. It is possible they seized all of this gray area in the past 4 days. But I need more satellite images (and good weather).
I learned that Russia is attacking Bilohorivka from two angles, which explains Ukraine claiming to repell attacks near Zolotarivka.
Everything else is pretty much the same. Russia attacking all over the Bakhmut area without success.
Lots of fighting around Avdiivka and Donetsk.
BTW, Wargonzo stepped on a pedal mine and suffered a foot injury somewhere in this general area. They claim near "Vodyane", but it is more likely near Opytne. The western portion of Opytne and eastern portion of Vodyane practically touch each other.
Ukraine is continuing their pressure in the south, probing out of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv.
PETAL. its a PETAL mine. 🦋
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
It is insane to me that prop planes were never supplied to Ukraine. People have been so focused on the wrong assets. It has been clear since day 1 that prop planes would be one of the most significant military upgrades Ukraine could get, and if they were provided on Day 1 this war could be very different today. They could have been hunting and destroying recon drones this entire time, denying Russia the ability to plan their missile raids and correct their artillery fire and airstrikes. This would have crippled the Russian military. Instead, we put all of our money into defense, which could not be delivered in the time frames or in the quantities to actually defend ukraine. This failure to provide prop planes is completely infuriating to me.
And, even worse, the people who failed to understand how important the prop planes were back then are still in charge of making decisions today. That alone should worry everyone.
These people just don't understand how this war was going to be fought, is currently fought, or how it will be fought in the future. And yet, somehow, they make decisions on which gear should be invested in.
It is honestly interesting seeing multiple prominent Russian milbloggers talking about the hopelessness of a Russian victory. I think they are starting to realize they goofed.
Sentiments along the lines of “no matter how many resources we push in, the front line barely moves”. “ukrainian and european production is growing faster than ours”. “next year ukraine will have more resources than us”
Tack on the comments about how 152mm artillery is a dead end technology due to lack of investment and development from the 80s onwards. Even their latest models, which Russia cannot even produce due to lack of industrial power, is dramatically inferior to even cheap 155mm pieces
Compare what Ukraine does to help and rebuild after liberating from Russian occupation to what Russia does once they enter and you can see which country is on the right side of history.
“We opened a Resilience Center in Balakliya.
This step is part of the All-Ukrainian Mental Health Program "Are You Okay?", an initiative of Olena Zelenska.
The project was implemented jointly with the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine and the Coordination Center for Mental Health of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine, with the support of the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF).
Resilience Centers provide psychosocial support, including group and individual counseling, parenting skills training, social support, crisis intervention, conflict resolution, and support for veterans.
Additionally, the centers offer day care services for children with disabilities, tailored to the needs of each community.
It is also a space for community members to socialize and organize joint events, initiatives and training sessions.
The centers were launched with the financial support of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).”
Ukraine enters and begins to clear mines, restore electric power and water, repair heating systems, restore hospitals, rebuild schools.
Russia builds filtration camps, steals local land and businesses from the owners, turns schools into barracks, does book burnings, and begins logging the forests and stealing natural resources.
This is the 243 day of the Russian offensive, in this time they have almost 2900 armored vehicles + artillery destroyed plus 1100 more abandoned. Combined is just under 4000. This is actually an undercount as well, because we don't have enough money to buy all the high res sat images.
In the same time period, Ukraine has lost fewer than 900.
We are absolutely double counting vehicles. Its not intentional, its just inevitable. No matter how much we work to avoid it, it happens. But the vehicles we miss almost certainly dwarf the number of double counts. Like, we bought a high res image of an area where we learned we counted the same vehicle 4 times, but there were also like 40+ vehicles nobody anywhere knew were lost. And even still several dozen of those have never been spotted on any photo or video we can find.
I have an idea. Every time someone uses the total number of Russian mortar + 122 + 152 ammo production to 155mm production, they have to donate 1/4 of their salary to the Czech ammo purchase. Does that seem fair?
Compare 152 to 155, 122 to 105 and mortars to mortars or stfu and don't say anything at all.
Also, comparing the price of a mortar shell to a 155mm shell: are you stupid?
Remember that time Romanov posted a video where he shot a howitzer, and then cut to a shell hitting a house? And how the shell that hit that house killed a civilian? Now, I cannot tell you Romanov fired that exact shell, but he wanted you to think he did.