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Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
@AndrewPerpetua
Oct 23, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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I have a short update today because not very much changed on the ground. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
First, this part makes me physically uncomfortable because it goes against info I have from **all** of my sources, both Russian and Ukrainian, but it is hard to argue with the satellite images: This whole area east of Makiivka is a big question mark.
Ukraine posted a video destroying Russian equipment in this area, and the satellite images show it had to have happened after October 19th.
My primary discomfort with this news stems from the large number of reports I have from the past 72 hours where Ukraine was operating in and around Makiivka. It is possible they seized all of this gray area in the past 4 days. But I need more satellite images (and good weather).
I learned that Russia is attacking Bilohorivka from two angles, which explains Ukraine claiming to repell attacks near Zolotarivka.
Everything else is pretty much the same. Russia attacking all over the Bakhmut area without success.
Lots of fighting around Avdiivka and Donetsk.
BTW, Wargonzo stepped on a pedal mine and suffered a foot injury somewhere in this general area. They claim near "Vodyane", but it is more likely near Opytne. The western portion of Opytne and eastern portion of Vodyane practically touch each other.
Ukraine is continuing their pressure in the south, probing out of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv.
PETAL. its a PETAL mine. 🦋

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 28
The war in Ukraine took a turn in June of 2023 when Ukraine launched a counter-offensive south in an attempt to break through toward Tokmak. This decision has influenced every event that has followed, leading to disastrous consequences for Ukraine. I will not go into depth about the offensive south, but in short, Ukraine burned through its ammo stockpile and 12 of its best brigades. The offensive badly weakened these brigades and eliminated Ukraine's already limited flexibility regarding rotating troops and responding to threats.

Immediately upon the conclusion of this offensive, Russia launched a large offensive on Avdiivka and Novomykhailivka. Avdiivka is a small suburb northwest of Donetsk city, and Novomykhailivka is a small village south of Donetsk. Russia's ultimate goal was to break through to the city of Kurakhove, which is a small city west of Donetsk and is the westernmost significant defensive position constructed by Ukraine on the Donetsk front. In essence, Russia's goal was to break through the Donetsk defensive line and force Ukraine to defend weakly defended territory.
Ukraine's Donetsk defensive line was well-constructed and relatively strong. As such, it required fewer soldiers to successfully defend and more soldiers to successfully assault. This created a defensive advantage for Ukraine, which helped ease its relative manpower limitations compared to Russia. Once Ukraine is removed from these strong defensive lines, it requires more men to defend the same amount of area and also fewer men to successfully assault, which gives Russia the advantage due to its superior manpower.

To succeed, Russia would have to create a large manpower advantage in a localized area to break through the hardened defensive lines. Once broken, Russia could then splinter its manpower into many smaller attacks and attack many places simultaneously.
I could review the timeline and list the settlements attacked, and my initial draft of this post included this information. But instead, I will cut to the chase. After capturing Aviivka, Russia simultaneously attacked many locations along the entire eastern front. At first, Ukraine could withstand the attacks, but with each lost position, Ukraine became increasingly weaker. Finally, the fall of Ocheretyne, the next railway stop northwest of Avdiivka, fell. This loss opened the floodgates that allowed Russia to flow across the Donbas and capture many settlements in a short time.

Ukraine has now reached a point where it has insufficient manpower to mount a proper defense. Even after shortening the length of its defensive line to increase the density of its troops, it still lacks the strength to stop the Russian advance.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 27
Russians have effectively broken through the line of defense that was behind Vuhledar by getting into the middle of Bohoyavlenka. This defense line I was hoping could last at least 2-3 months, but was lost in 1. Largely due to extremely heavy bombing and horribly insufficient preparation by ukriane.
In essence, Ukraine spent 2 years defending their forward positions to buy time, and used that time doing nothing to prepare the next line of defense.
There really is no excuse Ukraine has for this failure. You have to point the finger at Zelensky. He is personally responsible for this. It was his job to defend Ukraine. You cannot blame "western partners" for failing to make the most basic defenses in your most critical areas.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 22
Yesterday a bunch of Russian trolls were trying to tell me Russia doesn’t strike schools, so here is an example of such a thing. It is the most memorable strike to me, the videos of wounded educators being pulled out of the destroyed school is etched into my memory.
t.me/dsns_telegram/…
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Oct 6
Russia attacked a bus in Sumy with a drone.

"According to the investigation, on October 5, 2024, at around 3:30 p.m., using methods of warfare prohibited by international law, the enemy drone attacked a bus traveling through the territory of the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district.

As a result of the attack of the occupiers, three passengers were injured - a 65-year-old man and 54-year-old and 63-year-old women."Image
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t.me/prokuraturasum…
"‼️Today, the enemy once again committed a war crime against the civilian population of Sumy Oblast.

⚫️ In the Rychkiv community of the Sumy district, Russians dropped an explosive device from a UAV on the Sumy-Richki shuttle bus.

✔️As a result of the explosion, three civilians were injured and a shuttle bus was damaged.

☝️ We ask the residents of the Sumy region to be as attentive and careful as possible, to observe air warning signals and safety rules.

📍The security and defense forces of Ukraine will not forgive these crimes and all war criminals of the terrorist country will be punished."Image
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Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Sep 6
I am not convinced Russians actually control the area west of the canal in Chasiv Yar. We’ve been geolocating Russians there for a while, if you scroll back through our map you can see the geolocations and you can see the videos. You can see what the area looks like.
That area is not conducive to being controlled by anyone, Ukraine has thick drone coverage, and anyone who passes through the area has a very high chance of dying. Furthermore, the structures are completely destroyed and there arent many suitable places for defense.
I doubt anyone controls this area. I doubt anyone could control the area no matter how much they wanted to or how many resources they put into it.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Sep 1
Russia is currently bombing Kurakhove into nothingness. They are systematically bombing the entire place into dust. Dropping every weapon they have on it. Glide bombs, tactical cruise missiles, artillery, rockets. They are trying to turn it to dust, to completely erase it.
Kurakhove is the anchor to the Ukrainian defensive strategy, it links their eastern line to their southern line. You can think of two concentric circles. There is the outer circle, that is Kurakhove. And the inner circle, that is Kurakhivka. Together they form this anchor.
Between the two is a giant reservoir. Russia is attacking Kurakhivka from the north. They are moving closer and closer to it. And now they are turning Kurakhove to dust.
Read 12 tweets

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