First, this part makes me physically uncomfortable because it goes against info I have from **all** of my sources, both Russian and Ukrainian, but it is hard to argue with the satellite images: This whole area east of Makiivka is a big question mark.
Ukraine posted a video destroying Russian equipment in this area, and the satellite images show it had to have happened after October 19th.
My primary discomfort with this news stems from the large number of reports I have from the past 72 hours where Ukraine was operating in and around Makiivka. It is possible they seized all of this gray area in the past 4 days. But I need more satellite images (and good weather).
I learned that Russia is attacking Bilohorivka from two angles, which explains Ukraine claiming to repell attacks near Zolotarivka.
Everything else is pretty much the same. Russia attacking all over the Bakhmut area without success.
Lots of fighting around Avdiivka and Donetsk.
BTW, Wargonzo stepped on a pedal mine and suffered a foot injury somewhere in this general area. They claim near "Vodyane", but it is more likely near Opytne. The western portion of Opytne and eastern portion of Vodyane practically touch each other.
Ukraine is continuing their pressure in the south, probing out of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv.
PETAL. its a PETAL mine. 🦋
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Near Kupyansk, Ukraine is applying pressure east toward Svatove. In particular, over the past few days, Ukraine attacked Kuzemivka with ground forces and aviation (1). Russia is shelling the area around the town from Svatove, which is around 15km southeast.
In the Lyman area, Ukraine is attacking east toward the P66 highway between Svatove and Kreminna (2,3,4,5). Yesterday Ukraine secured Karmazynivka (2) and Nevske (4). Locals report heavy fighting near the town of Chervonopopivka (5). Civilians are leaving Kreminna (A).
The Russians want people to believe the situation in Bakhmut is hopeless for Ukraine, or that everything is falling apart and the city is on the verge of falling. This is all propaganda.
The reality is that, yes, the situation is difficult. The fighting is tough. There are many casualties. There are artillery strikes, missile strikes, aviation, etc. But the defense is holding. Supplies are going in and out. The wounded get evacuated, etc.
Russia attacks Bakhmut, but Ukraine counter attacks. Take note that Russia now claims they *lost* ground in the southeast of Bakhmut. Look at Soledar, the counter attack was so successful it drove Russia almost entirely out of the town.
When you say something that is soul shatteringly true, the propagandists are forced to attack the statement in a transparently desperate attempt to make their "followers" (almost all bots btw) think that attacking the statement is somehow logical. When they do this, you won.
It really is funny how these clowns come out of the woodworks when you dunk on them so hard they cant run away and hide from it.
And the thing here, obviously, and I cannot stress how transparent this is, Russia is trying to hide THEIR ABJECT FAILURES ON THE BATTLEFIELD behind a story that they completely fabricated hoping that gullible people fall for an appeal to emotion so they stop using logic.
Here is an update for the military situation on October 20th. I will not write about any possible future attacks from the territory of Belarus and will focus on Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.
Russia is hitting the border towns of Kharkiv with artillery, rockets, mortars, tanks, and aviation. In addition, they have launched several small attacks on the border town of Ohirtseve (1).
At some point I learned the Russians had crossed the railroad tracks near Krasnohorivka (with video showing it was true). On the map I labeled it (1).
At some point Russia was attacking Oleksandropil (2), and I have seen many people claim they took control over the town or at least the area around the town. I never saw proof of that.
Then I heard Ukraine pushed Russia out of Novoselivka (3).
Although I don't know which direction they came from. Was it a counter attack from Oleksandropil? Did it come from Yurivka? No idea! But Russia was pushed back to the bridge, where they maintained a small bridgehead but no control over the town. I've heard no update since.