Thread by @fwildecricket

🇦🇺-🇱🇰 tactical thread. Australia’s huge loss v New Zealand has their Semi Final hopes hanging by a thread. If they lose to Sri Lanka today we give them just a 5% chance of progressing. If they win they move from 25% to 37%. Sri Lanka move from 41% to 63% with a win. #T20WorldCup

Australia's bowling & the venue (Perth is fast & bouncy) matches up nicely against Sri Lanka's batting which can struggle v pace & bounce. However, Theekshana & Hasaranga match-up very nicely with Australia who struggle v spin, although conditions may neuter them. #T20WorldCup

Warner is—as he so often is—critical to Australia's spin match-ups, particularly against Hasaranga. Warner has scored 60 for 1 off 37 balls v the leg spinner while Finch & Maxwell combined have scored 88 for 8 (4 dismissals each) off 54 balls in their H2H. #T20WorldCup

Starc has only taken five PP wickets in T20Is since the start of last year & Australia are recognising his decreased effectiveness: he has not taken the first over twice in their last four T20Is having done so for 35 consecutive T20Is before then (back to 2014). #T20WorldCup

Sri Lanka have clear issues against bounce—since the start of 2018 only Ireland & Zimbabwe average less against balls bouncing above the stumps—& that is likely to be a big challenge on a bouncy Perth pitch & against a fast & tall Aussie attack. #T20WorldCup

Sri Lanka didn't quite get their batting deployment right today. They'd have wanted their lefties, Asalanka & Rajaspaksa to face as much of SLA Agar as possible but he bowled 19 of his 24 balls to righties with Nissanka & Dhanajaya batting deep. #T20WorldCup

PitchViz par for this game is 171 - making it the third best batting track of the competition so far. 157 means Sri Lanka are under-par but they have at least got something to defend. If they get Warner early they've got a chance. #T20WorldCup

Spin was always going to be the big test for Australia in this chase & it breaks through with the very first ball. Warner's dismissal now exposes Australia's right-handers to Hasaranga through the middle overs. Game on. #T20WorldCup

Hasaranga has dismissed Finch four times in T20 cricket. His googly is the danger-ball for Australia's captain who averages just 7 runs per wicket against all googlies since 2016 (9 wickets) & Hasaranga averages 8 runs per wicket with the delivery v RHs (38 wickets). #T20WorldCup

With Binura injured SL are going to need to get through three overs from their 'sixth' bowler (probably Dhananjaya). By bowling him now (& backloading Hasaranga) SL are asking Australia to take early risks against the sixth bowler or allow them to be bowled cheaply. #T20WorldCup

Of Dhananjaya's first 10 balls, Australia attacked seven of them, hit one for six, Marsh was dropped once and now they've lost one wicket. Dhananjaya's overs are being taken on. It's the right strategy from Australia but it's creating opportunities. #T20WorldCup

Bold, aggressive batting from Maxwell. He's always looked to take Hasaranga on in their H2H & he's cashed in on Hasaranga's over-pitched lengths, hitting two of his fullest four balls for six towards the short straight boundary. #T20WorldCup

Stoinis is starting like a runaway train this year, striking at 186 in his first 9 balls compared to 122 in his T20I career before today. Huge striking from the get go. #T20WorldCup