Thread by @YossiGestetner

Thread: I live in #NY17. I have worked on winning and losing campaigns here and elsewhere that have a large number of voters who are Orthodox Jewish.

FIRST: POTUS Biden called the Grand Rabbis of Kaser, New Square asking for support for @spmaloney. Dunno yet about @KathyHochul.

2/ I don't do political campaigns in recent years due to my work with OJPAC. But from what I follow up close, @lawler4ny won his seat in the NY Assembly in 2020 by a margin of a few thousand votes in an election year where 18,000 voters who are Orthodox Jewish turnout countywide.

3/ The 18,000-strong vote in 2020 in #NY17 was almost exclusively for Trump and this includes 3K or so votes in New Square and 3,500 or so in Kaser (and their affiliated members in surrounding areas).

Now that the seat is a toss up, a move by leadership in either place is key!

The 18,000-strong vote in 2020 was the highest ever turnout in this community; surpassing the 16K'ish in the County Executive race of 2017.

How many will vote this year and how will they vote?

If it's below 12K or above 16K I will be surprised. I lean to an upper end surprise.

5/ People are very animated about the #NYGov election due to crime and also the attack by NY state on Yeshivas. Similarly, being a GOP-leaning community on national politics, people are excited about the prospect of changing a seat to the @HouseGOP through @lawler4ny.

6/ But... There is a major caveat here: Leading Rabbis and communal leaders have major sway on how people vote and many voters put their personal opinion or perspective on politics aside to follow the vote recommendation. But a huge portion of the 18K+ voters are unaffiliated.

7/ A caveat on the caveat in #NY17: Endorsements alone don't generate the 18,000 votes. It depends more on regular GOTV. The more that campaigns pit in, the more show up, but due to the nature of life here (many community events, etc), these things happen on a wholesale basis.

8/ So all in all, voters who are Orthodox Jewish will by a large margin vote for @lawler4ny (so will I) in #NY17, but a few sections will vote for @spmaloney if Grand Rabbis endorse him but some of their pro-Lawler followers may sit it out not to go against the recommendation.

9/ Here are election 2020 numbers from New Square in #NY17:

3,040 votes; up from 2,306 in 2018 midterms.

3,011 Trump
8 Biden

2,572 Dem House Member Jones 306 Others

2,547 Dem State Sen candidate
309 GOP

2,902 GOP @lawler4ny Assembly
28 Dem Jaffee (incumbent)

House Minority Whip @SteveScalise is now in #NY17 at a round table for @lawler4ny with people in the Orthodox Jewish community.