Political #1: nuclear deterrence facilitates Putin's war against 🇺🇦. So far, 🇷🇺 & NATO are 'safe' behind their arsenals. All other NNWS are not. Waltz called that concept "nuclear peace". We call it Nuclear Injustice.
Political #2: nuclear nonproliferation contributed to 🇺🇦 fate. The NPT allows the P5 to have nuclear weapons. All others (except 3) committed not to pursue nukes. 🇺🇦 even gave up Soviet nukes under NPT + then became victim to one of the NPT depository states - Nuclear Injustice!
Political #3: nuclear disarmament is stuck since years. Even worse, while NPT has compliance mechanisms in place for the nonpro pillar, the NWS get a free pass because there is no mechanism in place in case of Art. VI disarmament non-compliance = Nuclear Injustice.
Temporal #1: already in the past, ethnic minorities, mostly from the Global South, had to bear the consequences of nuclear testing. See e.g. the works from @seb6philippe on 🇨🇵 nuke tests. These victims are still waiting for compensations. Nuclear Injustice.
Temporal #2: today, 🇺🇦 suffers from the unjust nuclear order and for the first time the humanitarian consequences of the stability-instability-paradox play out full scale in the very heart of Europe with millions of refugees and IDPs. Nuclear Injustice.
Temporal #3: future generations will have to live with the consequences of today's injustices, in the worst case of large-scale deterrence failure with the consequences of global nuclear fallout and winter. Nuclear Injustice basically outsources these costs to future generations.
Our article is a call to researchers, particularly NextGen, to adopt the Nuclear Injustice lense in order to expose the non-viability of the current order. Right now, the future looks like a mere repetition of the past. Let's change that!
@franziskastaerk and I will be at the @carnegienpp Nuclear Policy Conference starting tomorrow. Just get in touch and tell us your opinion about Nuclear Injustice.
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We need to talk about the threat of inadvertent escalation (IE) btw Russia and NATO in an ongoing Russian invasion into Ukraine proper and/or after an illegal occupation. We need to think about possible contexts that could lead to IE and how to diminish the risk of IE. Short🧵
1: full-fledged Russian war against Ukraine will see an early employment of 🇷🇺 airforce. Fighting could see inadvertent incursions into NATO airspace (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania) and immediate NATO escorting efforts that could be misread by 🇷🇺 pilots already under duress.
2: Certain NATO countries' possible efforts to continue sending further mil. equipment to Ukraine, perhaps via the Romanian border, could be met with direct 🇷🇺 mil. strikes at the border or perhaps even on NATO territory very close to the border.
1/n I start from the premise that in order to preserve @NATO unity min response to #Russia, the alliance should focus on three topical areas, i.e., deterrence and assurance, resilience, and risk reduction. My recommendations are as follows:
2/n Ensuring trip wire is pulled in a conflict, US should deploy a US Army battalion, split equally among the 3 EFP deployments in the Baltics; task: continuously patrolling/monitoring borders with Russia. NATO should avoid additional large-scale force deployments to the Baltics.