The German nuclear debate re-revisited - check out my latest for @BulletinAtomic

A quick 🧵

thebulletin.org/2024/03/german… Again, Germans are debating nuclear deterrence. Some still argue for a Eurobomb, others suggest financing the 🇫🇷 deterrent, a few imply a 🇩🇪 bomb. Nothing new - right? I argue we should take note because some things have changed in 🇩🇪 in recent years.

What is "Strategic Stability?" Is it still relevant, and what are its most serious challenges in the 21st century?

I had the honor of guest-editing a new special issue of @J_NuclearDisarm which explores these questions. A short 🧵:

https://t.co/yg8IDgqHrqtandfonline.com/toc/rpnd20/6/1
In my intro, I argue that strategic stability is not only conceptually fuzzy but nuclear multipolarity, novel technologies, an exacerbating crisis in arms control, and a growing acceptance of “softer” norms are all taking a toll. At the same time,

tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

Largely unnoticed, in the shadow of the current nuclear crisis with 🇷🇺, the crisis in conventional arms control in Europe has reached a new low. What happened? In early March, Russia decided not to provide national information about its armed forces for 2023 as required by Chapter 1 of the @OSCE Vienna Document (VD) 2011. The VD is a classical confidence and security-building measure (CSBM) - some would call it a risk-reduction measure.

The global nuclear order—built on policies of nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, and disarmament—is unjust. In our latest for @BulletinAtomic @franziskastaerk & I examine Nuclear Injustice along two axes: political & temporal. A 🧵 thebulletin.org/2022/10/nuclea… via @BulletinAtomic Political #1: nuclear deterrence facilitates Putin's war against 🇺🇦. So far, 🇷🇺 & NATO are 'safe' behind their arsenals. All other NNWS are not. Waltz called that concept "nuclear peace". We call it Nuclear Injustice.

We need to talk about the threat of inadvertent escalation (IE) btw Russia and NATO in an ongoing Russian invasion into Ukraine proper and/or after an illegal occupation. We need to think about possible contexts that could lead to IE and how to diminish the risk of IE. Short🧵

https://twitter.com/scharap/status/1495768262491185158

1: full-fledged Russian war against Ukraine will see an early employment of 🇷🇺 airforce. Fighting could see inadvertent incursions into NATO airspace (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania) and immediate NATO escorting efforts that could be misread by 🇷🇺 pilots already under duress.

A quick thread outlining the main takeaways of my @CarnegieEndow report on "Preventing Escalation in the Baltics. A NATO Playbook" carnegieendowment.org/2018/03/28/pre… @carnegienpp @james_acton32 1/n I start from the premise that in order to preserve @NATO unity min response to #Russia, the alliance should focus on three topical areas, i.e., deterrence and assurance, resilience, and risk reduction. My recommendations are as follows: