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Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
@AndrewPerpetua
Oct 27, 2022 • 16 tweets • 5 min read • Read on X
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An update for October 26th. #ukrdailyupdate

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
In the Kupyansk area, Ukraine is attacking Kuzemivka (1). However, to my knowledge, their attacks to date have failed.
However, Ukraine has “advanced to” Dzherelne (2). I am not entirely sure what this means. Maybe Ukraine is actively attacking, possibly the town is contested, or perhaps it is liberated. Regardless, Russia seems rather upset about Ukraine being near this town.
The Kreminna area needs to be clarified. Russia claims to attack to the west, and perhaps they are, but Ukraine also appears to be advancing east, especially in the direction of Chervonopopivka.
Russia is attacking all over the Bakhmut area without success.
North of Bakhmut, they are attacking Bilohorivka (3), Soledar (4), and Bakhmutske (5).
They are attacking Bakhmut itself (6,7).
South of Bakhmut, they are attacking Ivanhrad and Opytne (8), Andriivka (9), and Kurdyumivka (10).
Russia is actively attacking in several directions in the general Donetsk area.
East of Avdiivka, they are attacking Kamyanka (11).
Around Pisky, they are attacking Vodyane (12), Pervomaiske (13), and Nevelske (14). I do not have anything to say about these attacks today, but I hope to say more tomorrow.
To the west of Donetsk, Russia is attacking Krasnohorivka (15), Marinka (16), and Novomykhailivka (17).

Due to the terrain, Russia cannot launch a strong attack on Krasnohorivka until they capture Pervomaiske and Nevelske.
Marinka is practically impossible to attack at this point due to 8 years of heavy shelling.

They have had little to no success attacking Novomykhailivka over the past several months.
Earlier today, I made a thread about Russian soldiers seizing houses and school buildings around Zaporizhzhia and Luhansk.
Here is an example of what happens when you don't maintain your artillery barrel.
And here is a thread about the situation around Svatove.

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More from @AndrewPerpetua

Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
May 23
Ukraine does not have an adequate air force, but it can create the effects of an air force using other methods and tools. For example, long-range drones can be deployed in a series of nested concentric circles to mine and harass supply roads, effectively cutting them off.

One layer of drones could strike targets 100 km out, the next at 80 km, then 60 km, 40 km, and finally, the remaining drones could dominate the last 20–30 km leading to the front.

With sufficient drone coverage density, the impact on enemy logistics can closely mirror that of a conventional air force—cutting off supplies and limiting troop movements.

Furthermore, the development of heavier strike drones, with payloads between 100 and 500 kg, can replicate the effects of traditional airstrikes. In conjunction with attack drones, this combination becomes a deadly one-two punch: attack drones locate and relay target positions, and heavier strike drones follow up with rapid and destructive precision.

Once the enemy's rear positions are degraded to this extent, the front becomes unsustainable. The opposing force will be forced to withdraw, regardless of intent.

Ukraine does not need large offensive pushes to defeat Russia. It needs extremely high-density drone coverage to deny Russian sustainment. Land can be taken back piece by piece, without committing to large and costly ground assaults.
All but the heavy strike drones can be done with the technology that Ukraine has available today, right now. The strike drones could be developed in short order. This is a realistic path to victory using the tools and resources available. And one which Europe could help using financing alone.
Europe could also provide longer range weapons for Ukraine’s existing aircraft, which is frankly a much more unrealistic path forward. Albeit possible. And Europe doesn’t really have the weapons available to give, so would require making them first.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
May 10
After Trump put Fedex guys in charge of USPS, the democrats should issue an official warning that any aspect of USPS that might get “privatized” under trump will be immediately seized, without compensation, by the following administration and congress.
There should be an open air understanding that any aspect of the government privatized by Trump will be seized back without compensation. We will eminent domain your ass, and change any law (or court makeup) to make it legal.
The property of the people isn’t for sale. That’s the message.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
May 3
The US saw Russia using nothing but golf carts and ladas in Ukraine and said fuck it, we're going on all in. We're cancelling all armor procurement. Battle golf carts are the future. Who needs firepower when you have bags of meat strapped to a go-cart?
Many Americans will die, and that is a sacrifice the Army is willing to make. Drive the golf cart full steam into a drone swarm. The guys in the back will have tons of ability to shoot back before they die, since there will be no walls or doors to get in the way.
All paths will be heavily mined, which is why we got rid of mraps. The mraps would just get disabled anyway, and then you'd be wishing you had a golf cart to ride. So, instead of wasting our time with armor, lets cut to the chase and deploy you on a golf cart from the start.
Read 5 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
May 1
Interesting uptick in Russian dive bomber drones recently. I've wondered why they were developed then suddenly disappeared. They always seemed the most effective type of drone.
Russians are using dive bombers to destroy vehicles. Much more efficient than suiciding the drone and deals the same damage.
Magyar used to use dive bombers to destroy tanks, but stopped for some reason.
Read 8 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Apr 26
Sitting here listening to a news report from the 1970s where the police broke into the wrong house in a police raid, where every American was... normal. They were outraged, they wanted immediate accountability and changes to the law. And then congress... changed the law. Apparently the US had a functional society at some point.
Literally in 4 days there will be a major supreme court case in the US about this. That law from the 70s, the federal government has basically declared the law doesn't count. On Tuesday, four days from now, there is a Supreme Court case where the courts will decide whether that law written by congress is going to be followed or whether the judiciary gets to invent their own laws and ignore congress.
And nobody is talking about this, for some reason. Even after literally yesterday where Trump literally signed an executive order THAT ALLOWS FEDERAL AGENTS TO SEARCH YOUR HOUSE WITHOUT A WARRANT.
Read 6 tweets
Andrew Perpetua Profile picture
Apr 18
I see several things happening in Ukraine right now:

1: Ukraine has pivoted to a drone based defense. Most of the gains you see Russia making right now are coming as a result of one of two things. A: Inferior Ukrainian drone units or B: Overwhelming Numerical Superiority.
When I say an inferior drone unit, I do not mean the pilots are bad, or even necessarily that their construction is bad. It could be as simple as not having access to enough drones, or not having enough pilots. I simply mean the unit isn’t strong enough for the task.
Where we see the strongest drone units, we see Russia struggling to advance, Usually only advancing with extreme numerical superiority and enormous casualties.
Read 15 tweets

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