About that #Hamburg port deal: From my perspective, not a national security problem per se, as #Cosco gets no controlling stake and there won’t be a sale of physical infrastructure or land, but only of company shares.
BUT
1/
BUT
1/
The dealmaking apparently was highly dubious. If a partner blackmails you with rerouting freight if you don’t sell him a stake, he’s maybe not such a desirable partner to begin with.
2/
2/
RECIPROCITY. There is NO WAY China would ever, ever allow a foreign entity to acquire a stake in one of its own ports, let alone the country’s most important one.
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3/
Commercially, the deal seems to make little sense for Cosco. Why buy a quarter of one out of four terminals for maybe around 65m$? That’s not even peanuts for Cosco, it’s negligible. So why the fuss?
4/
4/
Because it’s political. Cosco is an SOE, its leadership are high-ranking Communist Party members. China wants this deal, and they want it at this moment in time.
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5/
They want to show to the U.S. that they can still make inroads into Europe, especially into its economic powerhouse. Despite the position Beijing has taken vis-a-vis Russia’s war in Ukraine, the West is not nearly as united when it comes to China. That’s the signal.
6/
6/
To get the deal done NOW is the icing on the cake. Xi Jinping has just gotten his 3rd term. Scholz is coming to visit next week - and he’ll bring this lovely present along. Like a vassal in imperial times paying tribute. Chinese propaganda will LOVE it. So much face!
7/
7/
Scholz might think the blowback he gets is worth it because it will win him favor in Beijing and cement the special China-Germany relationship. Domestically, he wrests the initiative from the Greens, who have been driving the discussion about Germany’s new China strategy.
8/
8/
I see it as yet another foreign policy blunder by Scholz. These days, Germany is widely perceived to be on the wrong side of every debate. What Scholz might see as a short term win really undermines Germany’s position among the liberal democracies, AND that whole camp.
/end
/end
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