#ImranKhan’s political lack of acumen (he has cunning) has meant that he has managed to fall from positions of great strength. 1st VONC. Having been shuttled into power with vast popular support & Deep State support, he managed to fall out with allies, under perform & take 1/11
all kinds of unnecessary steps to entrench himself. Destabilised/made insecure too many & pulled himself down. Post VONC because of PDM divide/indecisions, his big jalsas, by-election victories & constant politicking he managed to resurrect himself. All he needed to do was 2/11
to wait out some months. Floods, inflation, fuel/electricity prices, lacklustre governance, Bajwa on way out, burden of his own govt’s legacy on economy etc means that PDM lame duck in coming elections. PTI also rules 2 provinces. But again his COAS appointment obsession. 3/11
Have past COAS choices worked for anyone? Mil on backseat due to his popularity & the anonymity social media provided PTI to castigate it. It very likely won’t interfere in election. IK would’ve kept any future COAS in check with big victory. But seemingly desperate he kept 4/11
blowing hot & cold. Negotiating and castigating. Dallying with Faiz. Went many steps too far. Created point of no return vis-a-vis Estab. And now a very uncertain situation with the #LongMarch. Does he physically occupy Isbd? If he is repelled then what? What if bloodshed 5/11
Will movement last if he/others jailed & others jump ship? Latter has started. So far I speak only of bad bad decisions that have brought him from positions of great success to first ouster from govt & now potential ouster from politics. Purely his fortunes. Haven’t dwelt on 6/11
what would’ve happened if he had stayed in power or now comes to power. He doesn’t talk issues but mouths controversies. He’s anti democratic & doesn’t care 2 hoots about parliament. He happily bends & abuses the law to persecute opponents. He craves sycophancy & assembles 7/11
the worst around himself. His governance hapless. His ego drives everything. He leaves no room for divergence, debate & dissent & would’ve again castigated all opposition/tried to suppress them. So in all likelihood his next stint would be worse than his 1st. In a way his 8/11
manufactured showdown bodes well for democracy as it pushes military back. But I don’t see him emerging intact. He even has benefit of various highly partisan judges/sections of media behind him. He also forgets the many skeletons in his closet that are now coming out & 9/11
catching up. The great lease/license he has been gifted. He repeats the corruption/conspiracy/looters mantra & Kamikaze fashion, glaze eyed & glum, leading his devotees down a highly uncertain path. As cult leaders do. With terrible outcomes. A highly charismatic but deeply 10/11
flawed, ego maniac. & when Pak faces tremendous challenges; hangs precariously in terms of eco, political & institutional survival. He has galvanised many. But given them no plan, norms, ethics, processes, systems. Nor younger leaders. May the day shine well for Pakistan 🇵🇰11/11
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