No final decisions yet taken but #Newsnight understands it will likely...
- Target debt falling as share of GDP in 5 years' time (not 3 years, as per existing rule)...
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- Cuts to departmental spending likely to be pencilled in for *after* the current Spending Review period ends in 2024/25 - though no compensation for departments for higher inflation *in* Spending Review period so de facto real terms cuts...
...
- Despite backdating of spending cuts, will still be significant fiscal consolidation in next 2 years aswell
- Real terms cuts to benefits not ruled out, ditto suspension of triple lock
- Capital spending cuts (infrastructure) still in play...
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- Overseas aid will stay at 0.5% of GDP, not rise to 0.7%
"I don’t think we’re talking about austerity in the way we had it in 2010" said the new chancellor Jeremy Hunt this morning.
Is this right?
Brief thread 🧵1/
...Well, we obviously don't yet know what the fiscal hole projected by the @OBR_UK will be.
And we don't know if there will be *more* tax U-turns or *other* tax rises.
But if we take the @TheIFS estimates of the fiscal hole of around £60bn...2/
...subtract the roughly £20bn of tax cut reversals so far (and assume no further tax u-turns) and that implies a remaining hole of £40bn that would have to be filled by spending cuts, or around 1.5% of GDP...3/
Abolition of additional rate of income tax already axed - reduction of £2bn from that total.
If there is a further tax cut U-turn today, what could go next?...
...speculation about corporation tax move reversal - would mean reduction of £18bn in cost of #miniBudget (blue)
But National Insurance cut has already gone through MPs this week, signalling £15bn (green) unlikely to be recouped...
...and bear in mind that @TheIFS has estimated the fiscal hole that needs to be filled by 2026-27 to get debt falling as a share of GDP at £62bn & stressed that even if the Chancellor now reversed *all* his #MiniBudget tax cuts it wouldn't be enough to fill it...
"It would be a tragedy if this ends up in further cuts," Mohamed El-Erian tells #Newsnight ...
...UK has "an incredibly incoherent" economic policy says El-Erian, citing government pushing liquidity into the economy and the Bank trying to take it out...
...El-Erian "What we need is for the tax reductions to be withdrawn, we need the Bank of England to act on interest rates...& protect the most vulnerable"...
Idea the UK bond market crash since last Friday is due to size of energy support package is difficult to square with the fact the UK wholesale gas price is now 321p per therm - lower than the 410p it was on 8 September when the plan was confirmed...
...the UK gas futures curve has also shifted down - which implies the cost of the package could turn out to be substantially *cheaper* than initially feared, as explained here...
...so somewhat implausible that it would be this part of the package on Friday which has spooked markets.
Also woth noting that even on the *higher* projections of the cost of the energy support package (£150bn - yellow bars below) it's a *temporary* cause of higher borrowing...