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Oct 29 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
All councillor counts are now final except:

Burnie
Central Coast
Clarence
Devonport
Glenorchy
Hobart
Launceston
Meander Valley
West Tamar

Data entry til 10:30 tonight so should get a few more today and from 7:30 am Monday

#lgtas
Correction: Kingborough also still to come.
Kingborough, Burnie, Meander Valley all done now so seven to go. Surprising that Central Coast is one of them since that was at 50% on Wednesday and is quite small.
(Though it has since occurred to me that 27 candidates for Central Coast is probably not helping things along there),

West Tamar done now and a very close final seat result with Peter Kearney losing seat to Julie Sladden by 3.59 votes
Elected councillor Mike Wilson (Huon Valley) who was on then off Council in the previous term has posted on Facebook that he has resigned. Assuming that's indeed the case, will be a recount for his seat only shortly (see Huon Valley section kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/10/2022-t…)

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More from @kevinbonham

Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Oct 30
#Newspoll 55-45 to ALP
#Newspoll ALP 38 L-NP 35 Green 11 ON 6 UAP 1 others 9
#Newspoll

Albanese net +26 (59-33)
Dutton net -7 (39-46)
Better PM (skews to incumbents) Albanese leads 54-27
Read 6 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Oct 30
["Poll"] If there is a #Newspoll tonight what will be the Labor 2PP? (most recently 57)
"Poll"] If there is a #Newspoll tonight what will be Anthony Albanese's net satisfaction (most recently +32)
["Poll"] If there is a #Newspoll tonight what will be Peter Dutton's net satisfaction (most recently -8)
Read 7 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Oct 29
UTAS Move Elector Poll (final)

YES 7797 (25.62)
NO 22631 (74.38)

#politas #lgtas
(They were going to finish Hobart Deputy Mayor first but evidently the plan changed somewhere perhaps because the LM and DM counts were taking so long.)
This was not an opinion poll - an opinion poll is a small sample of a much greater whole that may be subject to weighting errors and random sample noise. This was a compulsory vote in which 84% of enrolled Hobart voters voted with only 5% of those declining to express a view.
Read 9 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Oct 28
Exclusion order interesting here though I highly doubt anyone catches Burnet. Also, Briscoe is currently provisionally losing his councillor seat (though I think still some chance to retain, albeit difficult) #lgtas
And it can remain interesting for tonight at least (awaiting word on counting tomorrow) because that is all for Friday.
Dutta gained on Briscoe but not enough and is out now. Briscoe needs to gain 2.53% on Behrakis off Dutta's 20.53%; that seems highly unlikely to me.
Read 5 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Sep 21
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue. #springst
"In the lead-up to the 2010 state election, public polls gave the then-Labor government a similarly commanding majority, but Labor ended up losing in a surprise twist."

Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Results can be as all over the place as they like but if that poll occurred the Coalition would be looking at a loss of about 11 seats and the only question would be how many went to Labor and how many went to indies.
Read 8 tweets
Kevin Bonham Profile picture
Sep 20
#ResolvePM (federal) ALP 39 Lib 32 Green 10 ON 6 UAP* 2 IND 8 (may be exaggerated) others 3

My 2PP estimate 57-43 to Labor. Previous poll which came out at over 61 was an outlier.

* polls may still include them in spite of deregistration as have said they intend to run again
Report on #ResolvePM republic polling here which has 54-46 against at this rather meaningless time for polling the issue. However the question published appears to be the follow-up for initially undecided voters; what was the primary question?

theage.com.au/politics/feder…
In the previous Resolve republic poll the primary question was "Are you personally in favour or against Australia becoming a republic independent of the UK?" (The problem with that question being that Australia already is independent of the UK.)
Read 4 tweets

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