Impact of Budget on economy Good 29 Bad 29 (usually positive)
Impact on own position Better off 12 Worse off 47 (usually negative but not this much)
Would opposition have done better? Yes 34 No 48
I have that as about the 6th worst rating on personal impact and the 7th worst on impact on the economy (since late 80s) but above average in terms of the opposition not doing better.
Double-digit drops in a PM's Better PM lead are unusual but the time gap between #Newspolls is so large lately that past poll to poll change records are pretty meaningless.
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Kingborough, Burnie, Meander Valley all done now so seven to go. Surprising that Central Coast is one of them since that was at 50% on Wednesday and is quite small.
(They were going to finish Hobart Deputy Mayor first but evidently the plan changed somewhere perhaps because the LM and DM counts were taking so long.)
This was not an opinion poll - an opinion poll is a small sample of a much greater whole that may be subject to weighting errors and random sample noise. This was a compulsory vote in which 84% of enrolled Hobart voters voted with only 5% of those declining to express a view.
Exclusion order interesting here though I highly doubt anyone catches Burnet. Also, Briscoe is currently provisionally losing his councillor seat (though I think still some chance to retain, albeit difficult) #lgtas
#ResolvePM Vic (state) ALP 42 L-NP 28 Green 12 IND 12 (likely to be inflated) Others 6. My 2PP estimate if that happened on election day 61-39 to Labor but that is conservative; it could be even higher given IND issue. #springst
"In the lead-up to the 2010 state election, public polls gave the then-Labor government a similarly commanding majority, but Labor ended up losing in a surprise twist."
Not really. The 60-40 poll linked to was 20 months out from the election not 2. 2 months out it was 52-48.
Results can be as all over the place as they like but if that poll occurred the Coalition would be looking at a loss of about 11 seats and the only question would be how many went to Labor and how many went to indies.
#ResolvePM (federal) ALP 39 Lib 32 Green 10 ON 6 UAP* 2 IND 8 (may be exaggerated) others 3
My 2PP estimate 57-43 to Labor. Previous poll which came out at over 61 was an outlier.
* polls may still include them in spite of deregistration as have said they intend to run again
Report on #ResolvePM republic polling here which has 54-46 against at this rather meaningless time for polling the issue. However the question published appears to be the follow-up for initially undecided voters; what was the primary question?
In the previous Resolve republic poll the primary question was "Are you personally in favour or against Australia becoming a republic independent of the UK?" (The problem with that question being that Australia already is independent of the UK.)