Thread by @MoritzRudolf

When 🇩🇪 Chancellor Olaf #Scholz arrives in #China on Nov 4, he will be the first G-7 leader to visit 🇨🇳 since the beginning of the pandemic.

🇩🇪, 🇨🇳, and the world have fundamentally changed over the past 3 years.

Why is this visit so significant?

🧵 #ScholzChina

Since 🇨🇳and🇩🇪 established bilateral relations in 1972, four 🇩🇪 Chancellors have visited the PRC 22 times.
Visits traditionally served to open the door for 🇩🇪 businesses & foster cultural exchanges. They included cultural programs, joint venture tours, and a pinch of absurdity.

In 1975, then Chancellor Helmut Schmidt discussed international affairs and the state of the Soviet Union and with a visibly fragile Mao Zedong (for 3-Hrs). Schmidt also met with (then not yet rehabilitated) Deng Xiaoping, a fellow chain-smoker.

Deng’s reform and opening-up policy had (until very recently) dominated the perception of 🇨🇳 among the 🇩🇪 business community & government. As the 20th CCP Congress has shown: Xi is going after Deng’s legacy.

Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s 🇨🇳 visits (84, 87, 93, 95) helped to facilitate business deals (e.g., the expansion of VW & Siemens in China). In 1987, the PRC granted Kohl’s wish to visit Tibet. In 1988, the Goethe-Institute China opened as the first foreign cultural center in China.

4 years after Tiananmen, Kohl returned to 🇨🇳 (in 1993). When the 🇩🇪 Chancellor spontaneously broke protocol and insisted on going to Guangzhou’s famous Panxi Restaurant (where he wildly ordered off-menu), he accidentally inspired the chef to create a new dish (科尔牛柳).

Chancellor Gerhard Schröder also utilized his PRC visits (in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2004) to expand the 🇩🇪 edge over European competitors as 🇨🇳’s favorite economic partner.

During his 1999 visit, he initiated the 🇩🇪-🇨🇳 rule-of-law dialogue, aimed at having a long-term impact on the PRC’s political system (an addition to 'Wandel durch Handel' – (political) 'change through trade'). Neither succeeded. Now there is #XJP Thought on the Rule of Law.

During his 2004 visit, Schröder promised his 🇨🇳 counterpart to advocate EU-member states to get rid of the 🇪🇺 arms embargo on China (reportedly to generate 🇨🇳 support for a permanent 🇩🇪 seat at the UNSC).

Between 2006-2019 Angela Merkel, usually accompanied by large business delegations, visited 🇨🇳 12 times. In 2006 she called upon the PRC to assume more global responsibility. During her 2007 visit, Merkel met with #WenJiaobao, #HuJintao but also regime-critical journalists.

In 2010, Merkel discussed market reform with Wen Jiabao and visited the Terracotta army. The eurozone debt crisis dominated her 02/2012 trip. Merkel assured that 🇨🇳 companies had full access to German/European markets. Later that year, she met then-vice-president #XiJinping.

Merkel led a business delegation to Chengdu in 2014. One year later, she discussed economics relations with Xi in Beijing & met with human rights activists. In 2016, 🇨🇳-🇩🇪 government consultation took place in Beijing focusing on market access, reciprocity, and legal certainty.

After 2017, when Xi replaced the reform and opening-up mantra as the guiding principle of the CCP/PRC with XJP Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics, Merkel came to China in 2018 and 2019, where she called for reciprocity and advertised multilateralism.

While the primary focus remained on improving German-Chinese business ties, Merkel dealt with an increasingly self-confident and global China, and the apparent shift in the power dynamic between 🇩🇪 and 🇨🇳 underlined the necessity of more 🇪🇺 policy coordination on China.

Why is the Scholz trip to China so significant, even historic?

Scholz will be the first G-7-leader to visit 🇨🇳 since 2019. The world today is in a completely different state. 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 relations have deteriorated, and a further escalation of the conflict seems inevitable. 🇩🇪 is forced to balance economic and political interest.

It is also the first visit of a major political leader since the conclusion of the 20th National Congress of the CCP, which brought Xi a 3rd term, a loyal Standing Committee, and a CCP which has effectively turned into the Xi-party.

🇨🇳 faces weaker growth, the leadership believes in the inevitably of Western decline, and it is still caught in a quixotic effort to maintain its zero covid policy. Regarding the war in Ukraine, Beijing has shown that it is reluctant/unable to moderate the actions of Putin.

🇩🇪 is in the process of reinventing its foreign policy approach and recalibrating its relationship with the PRC (e.g., by writing a national security and a China strategy). How to develop the relationship with the PRC remains a contentious issue within the coalition government.

While the circumstances call for an in-person Scholz-Xi meeting, the timing is far from ideal: Right after the 20th National Congress of the CCP & 4 days before the 🇺🇸 Midterm elections – the outcome of which remains difficult to predict.

Most likely everyone will be disappointed: The PRC’s expectations are too high. They anticipate Merkel 2.0. It is unlikely that Scholz can deliver on substance for his domestic audience. Steps toward lifting 🇨🇳 sanctions on 🇪🇺 individuals and organizations would be a success.

Bad optics: It would have been wise to travel to China with @EmmanuelMacron and/or @vonderleyen. Now the trip looks like another example of European disunity. Regrettably, there have been no real attempts by the 🇩🇪 gov to control the narrative ahead of the 🇨🇳 trip.

A clear message by the Chancellor about the policy objectives of this trip could help to reduce uncertainty at home & among European, and transatlantic partners. It would also give the Chinese side realistic expectations of the visit.

With the COP 27 summit starting on 6 November in Egypt, climate policy remains a crucial area of 🇩🇪🇨🇳 cooperation. Efforts should also be undertaken to convince the Chinese leadership to approach Russia and deter Putin from further nuclear saber-rattling.

If Scholz wants to position Germany and Europe as strategic mediators in the emerging US-China conflict (instead of been worn down by it), he needs to inspire confidence in his CHN policy within Germany, Europe, and the G-7. There is still plenty of room for improvement.

Scholz should inform Xi about the necessity to operationalize new modi of coexistence & economic cooperation, which accommodate European interest and concerns. While this trip can serve as a first step in this process. It can only succeed with the rest of Europe on board.

/End