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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Oct 31, 2022 • 24 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
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NEW

My customary deep dive on @IEA #WEO22

⏩Energy transition "turbo charged" by Russia's war
⛰️Fossil fuels to peak by 2027
❤️‍🔥Peak gas: "Golden age of gas" is over
🌄Solar outlook +20% vs last yr; wind +15%
🌡️Warming 2.5C (1.7C if pledges met)

1/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The world is finally set to decouple GDP from fossil fuel use & CO2 emissions, after more than a century

The fossil fuel outlook has been transformed since Paris (grey-blue wedges in the chart)

Even since last yr the shift is dramatic (thanks Vlad)

2/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The global energy crisis is having major impacts that will reverberate for decades, the IEA says

And it's clear that high fossil fuel prices triggered by Russia's war are the reason

European TTF MA gas price in Sep22 was 24x (!) higher than in Sep20

3/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The IEA pours cold water on the idea that climate or net-zero are to blame for the energy crisis

📢"That is simply not true"
🛢️"Scant evidence" fossil fuel invst stifled by net-zero
📈Fossil fuels behind 90% of electricity price rises

4/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
IEA also gives a cold dose of reality to idea of a "coal comeback" thanks to energy crisis

⏱️"upside for coal is temporary"
📉coal in "structural decline" from mid-20s
🌄3/4 of extra $ in 2022 for clean energy
🏛️policy "fast-tracking…clean energy"

5/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
One of the most dramatic shifts in this year's IEA outlook is for gas

Where last year's outlook saw 20% growth in gas demand to 2050, this year there is none

That golden age of gas? It's over

(Chart: @CoalFreeDave @EmberClimate)

6/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Russia is the big loser in all this, set to miss out on $1tn of energy export earnings to 2030

While Russia hopes to pivot to Asia, IEA says there are "considerable doubts" over China's need for further Russian gas beyond Power of Siberia pipeline

7/
And while Russia has "severed one of the main arteries of global energy trade", IEA cautions against a rush for new fossil fuel supplies

🕦avg 19yrs from licence to production
🌍new supplies a "clear risk" to 1.5C target

8/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Solar and wind are once again growing faster than the IEA expected last year, thanks to stronger policy etc

Solar by 2050 is up 21% (!) vs last yr & 5x on pre-Paris

Pre-Paris outlook = 1,405GW
Last yr's outlook = 6,163GW
Latest outlook = 7,464GW

9/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
<kids dinner interlude…more later>
So back to the #WEO22…

Not only are wind and solar growing more quickly than expected last year (again), but today's growth rates are running ahead of the IEA STEPS

Translation: We can go faster

10/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
IEA looks at manufacturing needs for key clean energy supply chains

There's good news…

Enough capacity is built or planned for batteries, solar, electrolysers (tho not heat pumps, Li, Cu)

…but "enough" is to meet current pledges (not 1.5C)

11/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
All told, there's been huge progress since before Paris, the #WEO22 shows…

Pre-Paris = 3.5C
Now = 2.5C
If pledges are met = 1.7C

…but a huge "ambition" gap remains, even if countries bridge the "implementation gap & meet pledges

12/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Pathway to 1.5C "remains narrow but achievable", but #WEO22 had to revise NZE to offset higher CO2 since last yr & new fossil inf that could emit 25GtCO2

Last yr = pale yellow
This yr = dark yellow

In short: steeper, deeper cuts needed

13/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
As an aside, this is basically a version of ski slope of missed opportunity – if I can call it that – which we've posting every year for a while

14/
carbonbrief.org/unep-meeting-g… Image
Getting onto that narrow 1.5C pathway means massively scaling up investment in clean energy, #WEO22 says, tripling today's $1.4tn by 2030…

…and doubling total energy investment (so we can't *just* shift $ from dirty to clean, we need more )

15/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
If we fail to scale up clean energy invst, we will face an unpalatable choice between an "energy-starved" world, or higher fossil fuel spending to meet demand, putting 1.5C in "jeopardy"

(This is the 2022 twist on "no new fossil fuels for 1.5C")

16/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…
New fossil fuel invst not only puts 1.5C at risk, the IEA says, but would also be a commercial risk in case expected demand fails to materialise

Eg: New LNG inf is needed under current policies (STEPS), but won't be if we hit climate goals (APS)

17/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
These sorts of risks are very much front of mind in #WEO22, which sets out 10 principles for what IEA calls a "new energy security paradigm" (pic)

18/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
To conclude, the IEA #WEO22 doesn't quite spell it out, but it effectively says that the fabled "energy trilemma" is being solved by clean energy

🔐energy security? clean energy
💰cost-competitiveness? clean energy
🌍sustainability? clean energy

19/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The alignment of security, economic & climate imperatives behind clean energy is why, in his #WEO22 foreword, @fbirol pushes back on the "mistaken" idea the energy crisis will be a setback for climate

"In fact, this can be a historic turning point"

20/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Finally, since I didn't even cover everything in my article, let alone in the 524-page #WEO22, here are a few very good threads with more details

/end





PS

ofc you shld at least read the #WEO22 summary yourself, I guarantee you will learn a lot – and the whole report is free!

iea.org/reports/world-…
PPS I'm sure @IEA knows this and it's simply tough to get such a mega report finished any more quickly, but…it would make journalists like me, who actually want to read the thing, very happy to have a longer embargo with the #WEO 🙏

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
Oct 30
Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Image
Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7 Image
The world's solar industry employs as many people as gas

Solar + EVs + batteries + wind combined employ as many as oil
3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Sep 27
NEW: How the UK became the first G7 country to phase out coal power 🧵

Four key ingredients in UK's success:

❌🏭Stopping new coal
❤️‍🔥☢️🌄Building alternatives
💷Making polluters pay
📢Clear political signals

But there's much more to say…

1/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
UK opened the world's first coal power plant in 1882 on London's Holborn Viaduct (pic)

⛰️ Since then, UK coal plants have burned 4.6bn tonnes of coal, emitting 10.4GtCO2
🌍 That's more CO2 than most countries have ever emitted, from all sources (!)

2/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…
Image
But the UK was the world's first "coal-fired economy" – and that started long before coal-fired power

🥤Coal fuelled pumps to drain mines to get more coal
📈And as steam engines got more efficient, it got cheaper to use and extract ever more of the fuel, inspiring "Jevons paradox"

3/n
interactive.carbonbrief.org/coal-phaseout-…Image
Read 10 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Aug 6
Oh dear oh dear, Andrew likes to pose as an energy expert, but *everything* he adds here is wrong

💷His biggest omission is that higher power imports means lower bills for consumers💷

Shall we count the other ways he's wrong?

Yes, let's, with added GIFs and some MATHS🧵
Let's begin with the facts. Andrew doesn't say so, but I am going to assume he is (correctly) quoting data from Montel Analytics, showing that UK electricity imports were 18.9TWh in H1 2024, up 82% from H2 2023

Here's some news coverage of the data:

current-news.co.uk/spike-british-…
Let's pause for a moment to congratulate Andrew for successfully quoting a report (albeit without attribution)

This is the only thing he did right.
Read 15 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jun 18
NEW ANALYSIS: Cutting the 'green crap' has added £22bn to UK energy bills since 2015

🏘️Insulation rates down 98%
🏚️>1.6m new homes built to low stds
🌄Onshore wind/solar growth crashed

A decade of rollbacks has left the UK more reliant on gas imports – and exposed to high gas prices

carbonbrief.org/analysis-cutti…Image
Just over a decade ago, then-PM David Cameron was infamously reported to have told aides to "get rid of the green crap" as a "solution to soaring energy prices"… Image
After Cameron's "get rid of the green crap" frontpage, a series of UK climate rollbacks followed

First, policy changes and funding cuts for home insulation improvements, with annual loft+cavity wall installations now 98% below previous levels Image
Read 8 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
May 9
Fossil-fueled chemicals boss Sir Jim Ratcliffe has an anti-EV tirade in today’s Daily Telegraph, littered with outright falsehoods, half-truths and selective facts

Exhibit 1: Far from "coming to a halt", EV demand grew by 25% in Q1 of this year

Let’s take a look shall we?

1/ Image
Exhibit 2: Ratcliffe cherrypicks Germany – where EV subsidies recently ended – to argue that demand is drying up

As already mentioned, global EV sales grew 25% in Q1 of this year, according to the IEA

2/ Image
How about China, Jim? Ah yes, EV sales are up 35% so far this year. But I guess that didn't fit your narrative.

Nor does the UK, I guess, given sales are up 11% in 2024ytd (31% for plug-in hybrids, on which more later)

3/
Image
Image
Read 11 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 4
It seems @mattwridley thinks @Telegraph readers are idiots

Let's run the numbers:

244,000km2 = area of the UK
5-10% = share of UK Matt says would need to be covered with solar to meet electricity demand in June

40MW = solar capacity per km2
500-1,000GW = solar capacity, if covering 5-10% of UK
300% = share of total UK electricity demand that would be generated by 1,000GW of UK solar
650GW = current solar capacity of China, roughly half the global total
<30GW = actual UK summer peak demand

15GW = current solar capacity of UK, of which ~10GW ground mounted
0.1% = current solar land take
70GW = UK govt solar target, because no one thinks we can run the country on solar alone
<1% = future land take

>20% = reduction in UK gas imports if govt solar target is met

Zero = credibility of Matt's articleImage
Image
Sources:

Land requirement for UK solar 40MW per km2 = 6 acres per MW, based on current solar farms; as noted in the article, govt says future farms would need 2-3x less land

carbonbrief.org/factcheck-is-s…
Summer peak demand is 28GW says NGESO

nationalgrideso.com/research-and-p…
Read 8 tweets

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