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Simon Evans Profile picture
@DrSimEvans
Oct 31, 2022 • 24 tweets • 16 min read • Read on X
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NEW

My customary deep dive on @IEA #WEO22

⏩Energy transition "turbo charged" by Russia's war
⛰️Fossil fuels to peak by 2027
❤️‍🔥Peak gas: "Golden age of gas" is over
🌄Solar outlook +20% vs last yr; wind +15%
🌡️Warming 2.5C (1.7C if pledges met)

1/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The world is finally set to decouple GDP from fossil fuel use & CO2 emissions, after more than a century

The fossil fuel outlook has been transformed since Paris (grey-blue wedges in the chart)

Even since last yr the shift is dramatic (thanks Vlad)

2/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The global energy crisis is having major impacts that will reverberate for decades, the IEA says

And it's clear that high fossil fuel prices triggered by Russia's war are the reason

European TTF MA gas price in Sep22 was 24x (!) higher than in Sep20

3/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The IEA pours cold water on the idea that climate or net-zero are to blame for the energy crisis

📢"That is simply not true"
🛢️"Scant evidence" fossil fuel invst stifled by net-zero
📈Fossil fuels behind 90% of electricity price rises

4/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
IEA also gives a cold dose of reality to idea of a "coal comeback" thanks to energy crisis

⏱️"upside for coal is temporary"
📉coal in "structural decline" from mid-20s
🌄3/4 of extra $ in 2022 for clean energy
🏛️policy "fast-tracking…clean energy"

5/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
One of the most dramatic shifts in this year's IEA outlook is for gas

Where last year's outlook saw 20% growth in gas demand to 2050, this year there is none

That golden age of gas? It's over

(Chart: @CoalFreeDave @EmberClimate)

6/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Russia is the big loser in all this, set to miss out on $1tn of energy export earnings to 2030

While Russia hopes to pivot to Asia, IEA says there are "considerable doubts" over China's need for further Russian gas beyond Power of Siberia pipeline

7/
And while Russia has "severed one of the main arteries of global energy trade", IEA cautions against a rush for new fossil fuel supplies

🕦avg 19yrs from licence to production
🌍new supplies a "clear risk" to 1.5C target

8/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Solar and wind are once again growing faster than the IEA expected last year, thanks to stronger policy etc

Solar by 2050 is up 21% (!) vs last yr & 5x on pre-Paris

Pre-Paris outlook = 1,405GW
Last yr's outlook = 6,163GW
Latest outlook = 7,464GW

9/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
<kids dinner interlude…more later>
So back to the #WEO22…

Not only are wind and solar growing more quickly than expected last year (again), but today's growth rates are running ahead of the IEA STEPS

Translation: We can go faster

10/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
IEA looks at manufacturing needs for key clean energy supply chains

There's good news…

Enough capacity is built or planned for batteries, solar, electrolysers (tho not heat pumps, Li, Cu)

…but "enough" is to meet current pledges (not 1.5C)

11/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
All told, there's been huge progress since before Paris, the #WEO22 shows…

Pre-Paris = 3.5C
Now = 2.5C
If pledges are met = 1.7C

…but a huge "ambition" gap remains, even if countries bridge the "implementation gap & meet pledges

12/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Pathway to 1.5C "remains narrow but achievable", but #WEO22 had to revise NZE to offset higher CO2 since last yr & new fossil inf that could emit 25GtCO2

Last yr = pale yellow
This yr = dark yellow

In short: steeper, deeper cuts needed

13/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
As an aside, this is basically a version of ski slope of missed opportunity – if I can call it that – which we've posting every year for a while

14/
carbonbrief.org/unep-meeting-g… Image
Getting onto that narrow 1.5C pathway means massively scaling up investment in clean energy, #WEO22 says, tripling today's $1.4tn by 2030…

…and doubling total energy investment (so we can't *just* shift $ from dirty to clean, we need more )

15/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
If we fail to scale up clean energy invst, we will face an unpalatable choice between an "energy-starved" world, or higher fossil fuel spending to meet demand, putting 1.5C in "jeopardy"

(This is the 2022 twist on "no new fossil fuels for 1.5C")

16/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…
New fossil fuel invst not only puts 1.5C at risk, the IEA says, but would also be a commercial risk in case expected demand fails to materialise

Eg: New LNG inf is needed under current policies (STEPS), but won't be if we hit climate goals (APS)

17/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
These sorts of risks are very much front of mind in #WEO22, which sets out 10 principles for what IEA calls a "new energy security paradigm" (pic)

18/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
To conclude, the IEA #WEO22 doesn't quite spell it out, but it effectively says that the fabled "energy trilemma" is being solved by clean energy

🔐energy security? clean energy
💰cost-competitiveness? clean energy
🌍sustainability? clean energy

19/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
The alignment of security, economic & climate imperatives behind clean energy is why, in his #WEO22 foreword, @fbirol pushes back on the "mistaken" idea the energy crisis will be a setback for climate

"In fact, this can be a historic turning point"

20/
carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi… Image
Finally, since I didn't even cover everything in my article, let alone in the 524-page #WEO22, here are a few very good threads with more details

/end





PS

ofc you shld at least read the #WEO22 summary yourself, I guarantee you will learn a lot – and the whole report is free!

iea.org/reports/world-…
PPS I'm sure @IEA knows this and it's simply tough to get such a mega report finished any more quickly, but…it would make journalists like me, who actually want to read the thing, very happy to have a longer embargo with the #WEO 🙏

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More from @DrSimEvans

Simon Evans Profile picture
May 15
Could this be the biggest climate story of the year?

For the first time on record, China's emissions are falling due to clean energy growth, not slow power demand

Full analysis + outlook by Lauri Myllyvirta:


1/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
In Q1 of 2025, the clean-energy driven drop in power sector CO2 outweighed small increases in other sectors of China's economy, driving a 1.6% fall year-on-year overall


2/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
The fall in power sector emissions came despite surging electricity demand growth

This is the first time on record that clean energy growth has been sufficient to cut into coal power, without the help of weak power demand


3/7 carbonbrief.org/analysis-clean…Image
Read 7 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Apr 30
FACTCHECK: Almost all the headlines on Tony Blair / net-zero are *wildly* inaccurate

REALITY:

1️⃣Net-zero is *only way* to stop warming
2️⃣Blair calls for tech to "turbocharge our path to net-zero"
3️⃣He categorically *does not* say "net-zero is doomed to fail"

🧵
1/6 Image
Blair says a "strategy based on either 'phasing out' fossil fuels in the short term or limiting consumption is a strategy doomed to fail"

This is logically & categorically not the same as saying "net-zero is doomed to fail"

(If you can't see why, I can't help you)
2/6 Image
Nor does Blair say "current net-zero policies are doomed"

Because literally no govt in the world has a current net-zero policy to "phase out fossil fuels in the short term or limit consumption"

Instead, world's govts agreed at COP28 to "transition away from fossil fuels"
3/6 Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 26
NEW: Official advisers CCC say UK shld cut emissions 87% by 2040

⚖️Net cost of net-zero 73% less than thought
💷Total cost to 2050 = £108bn (~£4bn/yr, 0.2% GDP)
🏡🚗H’hold energy/fuel bills to fall £1,400
🔌Electrification is key

THREAD + charts



1/10 carbonbrief.org/ccc-reducing-e…Image
Just so we're clear, let's start with why bother

We're seeing record heat – 100% caused by our emissions – and extreme weather, from floods to droughts to heatwaves

IPCC says net-zero is only way to stop this getting worse



2/10 carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
There’s also the global energy crisis, which hit UK particularly hard due to reliance on imported gas, crushing household (and govt) finances

UK has spent £140bn on gas since the crisis began (!)

Shift to net-zero would massively reduce exposure to intl fossil fuel prices

3/10 Image
Read 17 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Feb 10
THREAD: New UK govt contract with Drax biomass power plant

* 4-yr contract 2027-2031
* £113/MWh (2012 prices – £155 in today's money)
* Output cap of 6TWh (<2% of UK supplies, cf recent yrs 12-15TWh)
* CfD cost ~£500m/yr
* 100% of fuel must be "sustainable", up from 70%
1/5 Image
UK govt says the contract helps security of electricity supplies, but gives Drax a "much more limited role than today" ie it's limited to run at roughly 25% of its max output

This means it's mainly going to be running when it isn't windy


2/5 questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem…Image
Drax has had issues with existing 70% sustainable sourcing rule, but as it'll need less than half the fuel it has been buying to date, the new 100% rule looks more achievable

Notably, new contract terms allow govt to reclaim subsidy if rule not met


3/5 bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…Image
Read 6 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Jan 2
+++NEW ANALYSIS+++

UK electricity was the cleanest ever in 2024, with emissions per unit falling by more than two-thirds in a decade

Highlights:
🏭end of coal power after 142yrs
🔥fossil fuels at record-low 29% share
🌄renewables at record-high 45%


1/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uks-e…Image
UK electricity generation from fossil fuels has more than halved in a decade, falling to 91TWh in 2024 – the lowest level since 1955 and making up the lowest ever share of the total, just 29%

Meanwhile, renewable output has more than doubled, up 122% since 2014 to 143TWh
2/9 Image
The UK has cut gas-fired electricity generation by 13% in a decade – even as it was phasing out coal power – thanks to rising renewable output (mainly wind), along with lower demand + higher imports

More on falling demand here:

3/9 carbonbrief.org/analysis-uk-el…Image
Read 9 tweets
Simon Evans Profile picture
Oct 30, 2024
Incredible stat:

A single container ship of solar panels can provide as much electricity as more than 50 large LNG tankers of gas – or 100 large coal ships

There's many more insights in IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2024 – here's a selection 🧵

1/7 Image
Fossil fuels account for 40% of global shipping trade by volume – but only 10% by value

2/7 Image
The world's solar industry employs as many people as gas

Solar + EVs + batteries + wind combined employ as many as oil
3/7 Image
Read 8 tweets

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