Thread by @DrSimEvans

NEW

My customary deep dive on @IEA #WEO22

⏩Energy transition "turbo charged" by Russia's war
⛰️Fossil fuels to peak by 2027
❤️‍🔥Peak gas: "Golden age of gas" is over
🌄Solar outlook +20% vs last yr; wind +15%
🌡️Warming 2.5C (1.7C if pledges met)

1/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

The world is finally set to decouple GDP from fossil fuel use & CO2 emissions, after more than a century

The fossil fuel outlook has been transformed since Paris (grey-blue wedges in the chart)

Even since last yr the shift is dramatic (thanks Vlad)

2/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

The global energy crisis is having major impacts that will reverberate for decades, the IEA says

And it's clear that high fossil fuel prices triggered by Russia's war are the reason

European TTF MA gas price in Sep22 was 24x (!) higher than in Sep20

3/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

The IEA pours cold water on the idea that climate or net-zero are to blame for the energy crisis

📢"That is simply not true"
🛢️"Scant evidence" fossil fuel invst stifled by net-zero
📈Fossil fuels behind 90% of electricity price rises

4/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

IEA also gives a cold dose of reality to idea of a "coal comeback" thanks to energy crisis

⏱️"upside for coal is temporary"
📉coal in "structural decline" from mid-20s
🌄3/4 of extra $ in 2022 for clean energy
🏛️policy "fast-tracking…clean energy"

5/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

One of the most dramatic shifts in this year's IEA outlook is for gas

Where last year's outlook saw 20% growth in gas demand to 2050, this year there is none

That golden age of gas? It's over

(Chart: @CoalFreeDave @EmberClimate)

6/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

Russia is the big loser in all this, set to miss out on $1tn of energy export earnings to 2030

While Russia hopes to pivot to Asia, IEA says there are "considerable doubts" over China's need for further Russian gas beyond Power of Siberia pipeline

7/

https://twitter.com/TofMcGlade/status/1585591110147137537

And while Russia has "severed one of the main arteries of global energy trade", IEA cautions against a rush for new fossil fuel supplies

🕦avg 19yrs from licence to production
🌍new supplies a "clear risk" to 1.5C target

8/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

Solar and wind are once again growing faster than the IEA expected last year, thanks to stronger policy etc

Solar by 2050 is up 21% (!) vs last yr & 5x on pre-Paris

Pre-Paris outlook = 1,405GW
Last yr's outlook = 6,163GW
Latest outlook = 7,464GW

9/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

<kids dinner interlude…more later>

So back to the #WEO22…

Not only are wind and solar growing more quickly than expected last year (again), but today's growth rates are running ahead of the IEA STEPS

Translation: We can go faster

10/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

IEA looks at manufacturing needs for key clean energy supply chains

There's good news…

Enough capacity is built or planned for batteries, solar, electrolysers (tho not heat pumps, Li, Cu)

…but "enough" is to meet current pledges (not 1.5C)

11/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

All told, there's been huge progress since before Paris, the #WEO22 shows…

Pre-Paris = 3.5C
Now = 2.5C
If pledges are met = 1.7C

…but a huge "ambition" gap remains, even if countries bridge the "implementation gap & meet pledges

12/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

Pathway to 1.5C "remains narrow but achievable", but #WEO22 had to revise NZE to offset higher CO2 since last yr & new fossil inf that could emit 25GtCO2

Last yr = pale yellow
This yr = dark yellow

In short: steeper, deeper cuts needed

13/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

As an aside, this is basically a version of ski slope of missed opportunity – if I can call it that – which we've posting every year for a while

14/

carbonbrief.org/unep-meeting-g…

Getting onto that narrow 1.5C pathway means massively scaling up investment in clean energy, #WEO22 says, tripling today's $1.4tn by 2030…

…and doubling total energy investment (so we can't *just* shift $ from dirty to clean, we need more )

15/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

If we fail to scale up clean energy invst, we will face an unpalatable choice between an "energy-starved" world, or higher fossil fuel spending to meet demand, putting 1.5C in "jeopardy"

(This is the 2022 twist on "no new fossil fuels for 1.5C")

16/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

New fossil fuel invst not only puts 1.5C at risk, the IEA says, but would also be a commercial risk in case expected demand fails to materialise

Eg: New LNG inf is needed under current policies (STEPS), but won't be if we hit climate goals (APS)

17/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

These sorts of risks are very much front of mind in #WEO22, which sets out 10 principles for what IEA calls a "new energy security paradigm" (pic)

18/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

To conclude, the IEA #WEO22 doesn't quite spell it out, but it effectively says that the fabled "energy trilemma" is being solved by clean energy

🔐energy security? clean energy
💰cost-competitiveness? clean energy
🌍sustainability? clean energy

19/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

The alignment of security, economic & climate imperatives behind clean energy is why, in his #WEO22 foreword, @fbirol pushes back on the "mistaken" idea the energy crisis will be a setback for climate

"In fact, this can be a historic turning point"

20/

carbonbrief.org/in-depth-russi…

Finally, since I didn't even cover everything in my article, let alone in the 524-page #WEO22, here are a few very good threads with more details

/end

https://twitter.com/Caroline_Lee2/status/1585670317057400832

https://twitter.com/CoalFreeDave/status/1585489168251191297

https://twitter.com/fbirol/status/1585481511154892800

PS

ofc you shld at least read the #WEO22 summary yourself, I guarantee you will learn a lot – and the whole report is free!

iea.org/reports/world-…

PPS I'm sure @IEA knows this and it's simply tough to get such a mega report finished any more quickly, but…it would make journalists like me, who actually want to read the thing, very happy to have a longer embargo with the #WEO 🙏