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Matt Warder Profile picture
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Nov 1 • 3 tweets • 2 min read
Was going to post this earlier but ran out of time...

ARA (EU-delivered) thermal #coal prices rolling down to $215 today, putting the curve back into contango for the next six months.

Shoulder season rug pull over.
The #Newcastle thermal #coal curve has decidedly not endured a consolidation/correction/cleansing aking to API2...and let me be clear that it may not at all.

LNG/High CV coal market dynamics in Asia Pac region still markedly different from temporarily high gas/coal storage in EU
*akin*

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More from @mfwarder

Matt Warder Profile picture
Sep 8
OK, talked about this a little last month, and outlined some thoughts on a Spaces last night, but it's time to revisit the "China will save commodities" thesis.

I'll use the #steel & #coal space because that's what I know best, but there are analogs to other industries too...1/x
For better or worse, I've always relied on China credit impulse to give me a sense of where we are in the #steel cycle...3 out of the past four cycles, prices peaked 12-24 months after a peak in credit.

Except for 2013/14...2/x Image
The reason? China was dumping steel into the export market. That happened to be the year I moved from the coal team to steel at WoodMac, and it was just about all clients were talking about...so it kind of left an imprint.

Well guess what? Exports at highest level since then 3/x Image
Read 14 tweets
Matt Warder Profile picture
Aug 22
Coking #coal prices back to ~$250 for spot, and over $300 for peak restocking season.
ARA (EU-delivered) thermal #coal back over $400/t after nearly hitting $300 back at the beginning of the month.

Both of those coal bottoms within a day or two of a short term bottom in oil prices.

PSA: coal isn't oil.
You know what's NOT doing so great (but still crazy good relative to history) is low-rank Indonesian thermal #coal, down more than 30% off of Mar/Apr peak.

Now who could have ever foreseen such a thing?

🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
Read 5 tweets
Matt Warder Profile picture
Aug 1
Important tidbit from Joe Craft on today's $ARLP call - "Today, utilities are acknowledging that they're dispatching uneconomic gas over coal."
That's because coal stockpiles haven't really improved much since I tweeted this out.
Sub-bituminous #coal stockpiles - which saved western rate payers last year - are down 13 Mst YoY, with only about 10 Mst between May 31 levels and last year's Aug-Sept lows (during which natgas rose 66%).
Bituminous #coal stockpile situation is even worse, with levels at all time lows, and only 1.7 Mst away from last year's lows.

During that period last year, coal plants basically shut down to rebuild stockpiles while utilities burned uneconomic natgas...just like today.
Read 5 tweets
Matt Warder Profile picture
Jul 20
OK, so $AHQ.AX filed a strategic review…sucks for met #coal beta chasers.

But I’ve commented on several Spaces before that New Elk’s resurgence typically signals the end of a cycle, and even just given the ramp up costs and productivity concerns, it was never guaranteed. 1/x
The issues at hand for New Elk are obvious…far far far from both domestic and export markets on an unfriendly railroad to Met coal.

But more importantly it has very little mining history, which renders operational risk management almost impossible.

Both were problems. 2/x
The question I had six months ago was: sure, it works at high prices, but will prices stay high enough for long enough to make the asset profitable.

Well 6 months in and now we know the answer is “no”. 3/x
Read 6 tweets
Matt Warder Profile picture
Apr 23
So @Twitter’s algorithm slapped a sensitive content warning on a tweet in which I complained about it slapping a sensitive content warning on a tweet that contained no sensitive content.

And now I’m interested to see how far their terrible algorithm will go.

Game on. 😂
This game is apparently the sensitive content algorithm version of the movie Inception™.

And I am losing.
OK so I wonder if this sensitive content warning was because I mentioned copyrighted IP?

Let’s see…
Read 7 tweets
Matt Warder Profile picture
Apr 22
I'm a liberal and a registered Democrat who happens to have worked as a coal markets analyst for close to a decade for a major global institutional research and consultancy firm.

So "coal nerd" in this case indicates I am professionally qualified to evaluate others' analysis 1/X
While I understand it's pretty splashy to pump articles with titles like: "Aussie coal boom is ‘over’: new report co-authored by (politician's kid) says".



It's important to investigate the claims being made. 2/X
Let's start with the conclusion: "“Our findings are clear; Beijing’s plans for rapid decarbonisation and energy security signal the end for Australia’s current coal export boon,” Dr Gosens said"

It first might be good to see if there was, in fact, an "export boom"? 3/X
Read 14 tweets

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