Is Minnesota in the early stages of another fall #COVID19 wave? We can only guess.
Last week we saw hospitalizations rise making me think it more likely we were in a wave.
But this week saw COVID hospitalizations fall again, leading me to a downward adjustment in probability.
Non-ICU COVID hospital bed use, which had been worryingly mirroring last fall's trends, broke away a little bit this week.
Meanwhile ICU COVID bed usage is a fraction of past levels with no signs of rising.
The ICU bed trend could reflect lots of things, including higher immunity levels among vulnerable adults, better treatments for serious COVID infections than we had in the past, and perhaps a changing share in the with/for dynamic for less serious non-ICU hospitalizations.
The brilliance of Tolkien is that The Shire feels so REAL even though a moment's thought reveals it to be both absurd and incoherent with the rest of his Middle Earth worldbuilding.
The biggest issue, of course, is economic (Tolkien's weakest area of worldbuilding). The sophistication and abundance of consumer goods in The Shire makes no sense for a largely rural, mostly autarkic society.
The reason for this incongruity, of course, is that while places like Rohan and Gondor were inspired by real pre-industrial societies that Tolkien knew intimately, The Shire was inspired by... the Late Victorian rural England that Tolkien knew intimately.
For this post I'm ignoring most of this to focus on one historical claim: "You must do as Lincoln did. He... issued an arrest warrant for SCOTUS Chief Justice Taney."
Now, Lincoln did not issue such a warrant. But he *maybe* drafted one — though the evidence is very sketchy.
Wikipedia has a page called "Taney Arrest Warrant," calling it a "conjectural controversy in Abraham Lincoln scholarship."
The sole source that Lincoln secretly drafted a warrant to arrest the chief justice is a later statement by Lincoln's friend & bodyguard Ward Hill Lamon.
Lamon might have been in a position to know. But no one else close to Lincoln at the time ever claimed such a thing, and most Lincoln scholars conclude "there never was any arrest warrant." en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taney_Arr…
It's election season here in the U.S., so let's talk '20s elections.
I mean 1820s, of course. It's a history thread! 🧵 1/
2/ These are the results from the 1824 elections for France's Chamber of Deputies.
As you can probably tell from the monochromatic nature of the map, the elections were something of a landslide. So-called "Ultraroyalist" candidates won *everywhere*.
3/ "Parties" were nascent and informal back then, but candidates who were Ultraroyalist of one stripe or another won a total of 416 seats, compared to just *34* for the left-wing Liberal Opposition.
WARNING: this thread is going to make you feel OLD.
Time's march inexorably buries all things, as surely as several feet of snow will bury a six-year-old wearing a puffy coat over a pirate costume.
That's right, it's a ❄️🎃❄️ HALLOWEEN BLIZZARD DATA THREAD ❄️🎃❄️ 1/
2/ If there's one quintessential thing about this time of year in Minnesota, it's longtime residents rhapsodizing about the 1991 Halloween Blizzard, and newer residents wishing they'd just shut up about it.
But me being me, this year I thought: how can I *quantify* this?
3/ Every year people move in and out of Minnesota, are born and die. EVENTUALLY the 1991 Halloween Blizzard will fade from memory to legend, as remote as the 1888 Schoolhouse Blizzard: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schoolhou…
We're not there yet. But I have data giving a sense of how far we are.