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Nov 2 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Was asked what #miltwitter thinks of Taiwan yesterday. Simple questions that I haven't seen asked yet. (1) Did anyone address SARS-CoV-2 dynamics and progression in the U.S. & worldwide? (2) Ending zero COVID/清零 policy paved the way for defeat. Anyone modeling how to return it?
I'll link to the fun new German video in the next tweet but first you need to understand these dynamics (if you haven't come across them elsewhere or on my timeline)
Fun new German video, trolling score 10/10 😂
Supergeil, but again, back to the big questions that decide where we're heading.
Do 35-83% of SARS-CoV-2 survivors develop AIDS (lymphozytopenia) 10 ± X years later? If not, what's the real data? - The timeline matches invasion plans. These look like VERY simple questions for your teams. Some people should probably get to work on this.

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More from @_ppmv

Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 3
哭笑不得. Summary: (1) COVID is airborne and causes AIDS. (2) We have no viral load test, no resistance panel, not awareness. (3) China uses zero COVID and ART; the west is decerebrating itself (SAND). (5) We can stop transmission today (WHO IHR 2005) but actively choose failure. Image
(6) You need to teach people the real medical terms (=HIV medicine) to access care fast enough. Otherwise we will see the progression from "so surprising" "mysterious" to "oh shit now it's too late".

Literally anyone can understand this, as @dbdugger says
@dbdugger (7) Science, technology & system dynamics are fascinating. As institutions and practices, they are (a) our best hope to address the problems they (b) generated themselves. (@ElizKolbert Under a White Sky) This makes SARS-CoV-2 a high-order systems problem.
Read 13 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 3
Great observations. I'll add: we "have the tools" in form of international law. It's as common sense to systems thinkers (and counterintuitive to others) as you'd expect for high-order nonlinear feedbacks.

Real political capital will be needed to see us through this bottleneck.
The early tern catches the worm, as the saying goes,
Things took a dark turn when western institutions from science to the state to human rights NGOs failed to apply systems thinking to what was the preeminent global systems problem of our age. 1000 days later most people still live their delusions. Surreal.
Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 2
New German COVID Kita study. (1) Misleading frame by @Karl_Lauterbach. Omicron was not mild, but more severe in 0-4 yo than 35-59 yo. (2) No viral load test. No resistance panel. No elimination plan. SARS-CoV-2 is in the pre-ART era - like AIDS in the 1980s. Society is in denial. Image
We are in the first weeks of this graph and don’t know it’s shape yet. The HIV example won’t apply 1:1; some effects are faster, some slower, some N/A. Based on 20 years of SARS/MERS research it’s a solvable governance problem. DM if you want to work on this. We need good people. Image
Let’s link the pinnacle of alarmist memes in a thread of (pediatric) COVID-19, expected to cause lymphocytopenia in 35-83% of SARS-CoV-2 survivors, because delay and denial on this question will prove fatal. Children deserve better than this. 🥰 Image
Read 4 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 2
We’re at a dangerous moment. Millions will soon miss a critical time window. Antiretroviral therapy should start within one year of estimated date of seroconversion (ESD) if the HIV homology bears out. - Given how many millions will be touched, it’s stunning that “we” are so few. Image
Why scale matters: in international politics, abstraction is too high for "common sense". Thus, IR & foreign policy experts worldwide need to understand the details; MDs - much less virologists - can't help much. @TOClimates discusses the same for climate.
@TOClimates SARS-CoV-2 differs from climate because we have time-delayed feedbacks of days to years in the pandemic, making learning possible.

I'm rather optimistic on our prospects, if admittedly from a lower basis than perhaps most. The key is to learn fast.
Read 5 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 2
The SARS-CoV-2 origins are so easy to communicate, why has it taken three years? View the scenarios "Vaccine; Bioweapon; Freak Zoonosis No One Found ANY Evidence For Despite Looking Hard" with 80/20/0% expected probability. I'm curious why all this is so slow to take off. 1/4
Xi Jinping + Li Keqiang addressed the WIV biosafety 11 Nov 2019 - Even if you know nothing else about SARS research, China, or anything here, and your worldview is as innocent as a toddler eating ice cream it should have been a pretty strong tell guys. 2/

oops we forgot to mention the biosafety research reporting directly to Xi Jinping. 3/
Read 7 tweets
Paul Maidowski Profile picture
Nov 1
I propose we work on solutions. To walk the talk, to me it means changing pace. Let’s see if we can start some meaningful projects and answer the most burning questions. No worry - I’ll still respond to people & ideas. It’s just that no one can volunteer time indefinitely. 1/4 🙏
Today’s anecdote—I stole a package of milk rice that I’d damaged, put it into my pocket & forgotten to declare (€1?) in @REWE_Supermarkt, a large Berlin supermarket. Was charged €100 (stupid me 🤦🏻‍♀️😂).

The security guy told me that 10% of customers mask. He’s twice infected. 2/ Image
I was annoyed - €100 and a two-year house ban for €1? - so I nodded along. “Yes I research COVID so I’m alarmed,” I said. “Please be safe.” All colleagues in the supermarket were unmasked. 🤨

Didn’t correct his fantasy of having a “strong immune system” that’ll protect him. 3/ ImageImage
Read 11 tweets

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