Thread by @jmkorhonen

Let's talk a bit about the pessimistic "Dark Forest" hypothesis. Because it's entirely logical but nevertheless not a credible explanation for the Fermi Paradox, i.e., that we haven't seen alien civilizations. 1/

The "Dark Forest" is one of the potential answers to the famous Fermi Paradox listed by David Brin in 1983, and more recently the name of a book by Chinese sci-fi author Liu Cixin.

In short: space-faring civilization would see other intelligent life as an inevitable threat. 2/

Therefore, goes the hypothesis, any nascent life should be destroyed before it actually becomes a threat.

To a lot of people, this makes total sense. Life seems so brutish and violent. Perhaps alien civilizations wipe out everyone they detect.

But actually it doesn't. 3/

Let's start from the most obvious problem.

To any given species, what is always the most dangerous potential competitor?

Is it another species that has evolved on an entirely different environment?

Or is it a member of the _same species_? 4/

It's the latter. Members of the same species don't just compete for some of the same resources and similar ecological niches. They compete for the _exact same_ set of resources.

Homo homini lupus, as the Romans used to say.

5/

A civilization that fails to curb its internecine competition and paranoia enough is unlikely to survive even the transition to an interplanetary civilization, much less to interstellar one. The powers required for even interplanetary travel are extremely hazardous. 6/

But suppose that through a fluke a paranoid civilization manages to become an interstellar civilization, or a paranoid civilization takes over in one or more of star systems colonized by a non-paranoid civilization.

Again: who are now the most dangerous competitors? 7/

Is the most dangerous competitor a

1) faint signal from a distant star that may or may not tell of life or technologically advanced life, or

2) the neighboring cousins in the closest accessible star systems, who are not only close but compete for the exact same resources?
8/

By the logic of the Dark Forest hypothesis, a paranoid civilization should _definitely_ kill the nearest competition. If their cousins think likewise and/or manage to retaliate, there should be two possible outcomes:

1) everyone dies
2) one civilization lives.

9/

If 1), then the Dark Forest problem in a way solves itself in the best traditions of a self-licking ice cream cone.

If 2), we need to consider probabilities and distances. Because!

Why would a paranoid civilization permit even its members to colonize nearby star systems? 10/

After all, command and control over astronomical distances and timescales is difficult, to put it bluntly.

What would prevent the colonists from evolving into a threat to the parent civilization?

Except supernatural explanations, like interstellar telepathic hiveminds. 11/

Therefore, unless a paranoid civilization that sterilizes its surroundings arises close by, we should be safe.

And spacefaring civilizations don't seem to pop up in just about every star system.

Of course, we don't know if that's true. 12/

Fortunately there are EVEN MORE reasons to disbelieve the Dark Forest! (At least if the speed of light sets the speed limit for the universe.)

First, we can assume that nearby civilizations aren't paranoid enough to wipe out all signs of life. Otherwise we wouldn't be here. 13/

Earth's life signs have been detectable for billions of years now. So any civilization paranoid enough should've sterilized the planet by now.

But what if they wait until seeing signs of _intelligent_ life?

Worse for them. 14/

Let's say a paranoid civilization detects our early TV and radio transmissions. A warning light goes off in their command post: that little watery world may harbor potential competition.

Do they press the button-equivalent to launch a fleet of relativistic kill vehicles? 15/

First, their equivalent of an intelligence analyst needs to consider what the signals actually mean. What do they tell about the capabilities of the enemy?

Is that black and white image the best they can do, or just some ham radio hobbyist playing with their toys?
16/

Especially if the analyst serves a paranoid civilization, they need to consider seriously even more ominous possibility: that the signal is a deliberate ruse.

17/

Perhaps there is a powerful civilization nearby, trolling the galactic neighborhood to get potentially homicidal maniacs reveal themselves for orderly disposal.

How could the intelligence analyst tell this isn't the case? 18/

After all, they probably don't have that much experience about alien civilizations: killing off your nearest neighbors as soon as you have the chance isn't conducive to galactic-scale exploration.

19/

But let's assume that the paranoid civilization nevertheless decides those pesky Earthlings must go. The relativistic kill vehicles accelerate from their berths... and probably centuries elapse as they cross the interstellar void.
20/

Is the intelligence that led to the launch of the kill fleet still current by the time the fleet arrives?

Perhaps. But what if the target civilization is no longer dependent on the easy target, the planet(s) that can be easily sterilized? 21/

Perhaps the kill fleet nevertheless manages to kill them all. But that may be a difficult proposition. If even a seed survives, then the paranoid civilization will DEFINITELY have a competitor.

One that WILL retaliate, if given half a chance.
22/

(Again, note that the paranoid civilization would be very unwise to actually colonize the another system - for reasons outlined above. So an "occupation" of the star system by forces capable of independent action to make sure everyone dies may be difficult.) 23/

And then there's the funnier possibility.

The kill fleet arrives after centuries of travel.

Like the Spanish Armada proudly sailing into the New York harbor. Guns ready, with men in funny hats yelling they are going to kill all they see.

Drawing next to the USS Intrepid. 24/

BTW I did publish an article in the Acta Astronautica about this topic ages ago; here's the summary and links.

25/

jmkorhonen.net/2013/02/05/mad…

And if you like to see me write more stuff in English, here's a way to help make it happen.

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patreon.com/jmkorhonen

PS. This does have implications for us today, beyond the obvious #SETI and #METI ones.

I don't believe a civilization that fails to curb its competitive pressures can survive the transition to an interplanetary civilization. That's why I advocate for a fair sharing of wealth.