Thread by @ittaanaa_haftee

1/17 We now have the signed version of the Tigray-Ethiopia 'Agreement for Lasting Peace' released to the public, and it's time to reflect on it. While wishing peace to the country and the Horn of Africa (HoA) region, it's incumbent on us, the analysts, to call out flaws that

2/17 threaten the agreement's success. Here are key points of my take:
(1) While art. 3/5 imposes 'to restore the presence of federal authority' in Tigray's capital city, Mekelle, provisions under art 6 forcefully empower the #ENDF and rule terms of DDR for the #TDF.

3/17 These provisions are only short of unconditional surrender for the government of Tigray. (2) Art. 7--titled 'confidence building measures-- forcefully builds on art. 6 by requiring the government of Tigray to abide by the FDRE constitution, disabling its capacity to

4/17 recruit, train and mobilize soldiers, but there isn't even a mention of whether or not the constitution of Tigray will be functional and respected by Addis Ababa. Some may say the latter has been recognized by default as the agreement makes respect for the FDRE constitution

5/17 its guiding principle, but it has explicitly recognized Addis Ababa's needs which are obviously ruled in the constitution. (3) Art. 8 rules that 'the ENDF, the Federal Police, and other security organs' will be in charge of the international boundaries--an implicit reference

6/17 to the border with Eritrea and Sudan--'...the federal facilities...airports and highways [in Tigray]'. On what basis is the ENDF, which committed crimes against humanity, waged a war of genocidal proportion, enabled ethnic cleansing in western Tigray, and allied itself with

7/17 Eritrean invaders, be entrusted with the lives and security of millions of Tigrayans? Will the young Tigrayans who joined the TDF because of the ENDF atrocities buy and accept this arrangement? Things are fragile here.

8/17 (4) Art. 10 forcefully proposes certain 'transitional measures' and rules for the immediate establishment of 'an Inclusive Interim Regional Administration' (IIRG). No one knows what the IIRG will mean in practice, but its creation, especially when combined with provisions

9/17 in arts. 6&7 and the emboldened presence of foes on all sides, suggest that the current elected government of Tigray is declared null and void. This would amount to a temporary or long-term suspension of Tigray's autonomy provided in the FDRE constitution

10/17 —the very status Tigray fought to maintain over the last several decades. A dangerous position. (5) Although art. 11 lists specific mechanisms of 'monitoring, verification, and compliance' of the agreement, there isn't a single method of enforcing the terms

11/17 or restoring them in case of a breach. (6) Equally important are underlying issues that the agreement is not willing to say, especially how Eritrea and its allies in the Amhara region & Addis Ababa will honor the agreement. The agreement referred to the explosive issue of

12/17 Western Tigray only indirectly when it is stated in art. 10/4 that they will be handled according to the FDRE constitutional provisions. So flawed. (7) There are 2 dangerous precedents of global significance that the agreement has set in motion: (a) that Abiy Ahmed & his

13/17 allies deliberately used mass starvation and blockade to achieve political goals are approved legitimate and acceptable war games; (b) as the agreement refers to multiple elements of genocide, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity only lightly suggests that Eritrea,

14/17 Abiy Ahmed's ENDF and Amhara paramilitary forces can go away with all of these. Such dangerous precedents. (8) Overall, the glaring illustration of the agreement's flaws and profound ignorance is that it adopts the idea of respect for the FDRE constitution as its

15/17 vital principle of cessation of hostilities. The wars in Tigray and Oromia, as well as multiple forms of conflicts and bloody violence now haunting Ethiopia began because there is a well-organized, well-armed and well-funded force bent on destroying the FDRE constitutional

16/17 provisions through violence to declare it null and void when it emerges victorious--Abiy Ahmed's regime in Addis Ababa. You are not in a position

17/17 to broker peace with Ethiopia until you can understand the underpinnings of its society, economy and politics that caused the wars and enabled Abiy Ahmed and his allies.