A quick 🧵on #DDR in #Tigray.
Over the course of my career, I have become very familiar with DDR programs on three different continents.
It is important that the UN and AU not throw the DDR concept under the bus to legitimize the charade in Pretoria.
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If they are going to continue to refer to this as DDR, it will be important for responsible peacebuilders to hold the program to some standard of "good practices" and recognize red flags.
This, for example. 🚩👇
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The Ethiopian DDR plan is internment. If it was real, there would be considerations about economic reintegration, protection of former fighters, particularly treatment of demobilized female combatants in the hands of forces credibly accused of crimes against humanity and SBV.
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If the Ethiopian DDR program is real, the proposal will be comprehensive, with an emphasis on both the social and economic reintegration of former fighters. This is where peace is often won or lost. I don't expect to see these elements; I don't think anyone else does either.
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There are volumes of research on DDR and examples of good programs, some outside-led, others almost entirely self-led.
Some have been successful; others have failed. Admittedly, there is no silver bullet for success, but there are early indicators of failure.
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I know that concepts like economic reintegration seem absurd while the Ethiopian government continues to crush the economy of Tigray.
Psycho-social support is also absurd while everyone involved in the peace process continues to ignore the trauma experienced by Tigrayans.
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As noted, the next episode of #Tigray Humanitarian Update will use a new system to track the humanitarian blockade. Below is a graphic from the program. This will be used to track some of the promises made today.
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Here is a chart that tries to give a visual representation of the blockade over the past 12 months. By my measure the siege lifted for almost everyone in Tigray, but for most of the year 90% to 100% of Tigrayans "in need" were deliberately blocked from receiving aid.
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I am still adjusting some of the variables, so the chart is preliminary for now. I need to bring in some help to better understand various factors. There is also a fear that UNOCHA & Food Security Cluster data will become less reliable. We will be on the lookout for that.
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I wish that I had something nice to say about the international mediators, but I don't. The AU, US, and UN all put humanitarian aid to innocent civilians on the negotiating table in #Tigray and kept it there all the way until the end.
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The world proved that they were not watching Tigray; but terrorists, tyrants, and autocrats were watching. They all saw the gap between US rhetoric about promoting human rights and the reality of our commitment. It will only get harder from here.
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Hundreds of thousands of innocent Tigrayan civilians paid for our weakness with their lives. More will starve tonight and die of easily treatable medical conditions until aid gets to them. But they aren't the only ones who will suffer.
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Trucks and Fuel. 🧵
The @UNOCHA has told the Ethiopian govt repeatedly that not enough fuel has been allowed into Tigray to distribute food AND ensure that trucks that enter are able to complete the roundtrip back to Afar.
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First, let's look at how much fuel @UNOCHA had in stock at the beginning of the year.
As of Jan 12, 2022 “…the UN said its food partners had less than 7,000 litres of fuel left in Tigray…”
/2 theguardian.com/global-develop…
Now I will refer to @UNOCHA's Northern Ethiopia Humanitarian Update Situation Reports (available at @reliefweb). I have put some of the words in CAPS because this has been a challenging concept for the Ethiopian regime and their supporters to grasp.
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I'm done with the UN. This post makes it seem like they have brought in enough food to feed 5.9m *per month* and that 5.9M people in Tigray received food.
This directly contradicts p.3 and p.12 of the update THE UN PUT OUT TWO DAYS AGO.
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Here is the update from last week, except they didn't bother to update the number of Tigrayans who received food. The last "6 wk" distribution cycle started in Oct/21. They have repeatedly said that there is no fuel to distribute food in Tigray
/2 reliefweb.int/attachments/78…
Also note in the update that the UN has decided to no longer publish a weekly update on their operations in Tigray but will now be folding all of Ethiopia into a single update every 2 weeks.
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I am absolutely gutted by the decision of @UNOCHA to discontinue the weekly updates. They were rarely on time, usually had some errors, but it was one publication that put a reality check on #disinformation about the #TigraySiege.
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Without this reality check, the Ethiopian regime’s disinformation goes unchallenged. Example. Last week an EU delegation was allowed to visit Tigray. They confirmed what we knew about fuel. The regime called this a MYTH.
/2 voanews.com/a/ethiopian-go…
This is from the final update. Since the gradual reopening of the route in April, they haven’t been able to transport enough fuel for a single month of distribution. It's not a myth. It's a genocidal siege.
/3 reports.unocha.org/en/country/eth…
Please take the time to do this. These bills make @StateDept use diplomatic measures to end the impunity for human rights violations and genocide in Ethiopia.
Our status quo of protecting authoritarian regimes over the basic human rights of the people must end./1
This needs to change, right now, before it is too late to stop the #TigrayGenocide. The peace process is proceeding at a glacial pace AND humanitarian aid is on the table because the @_AfricanUnion, @UN, and @StateDept have all stuck to appeasement.
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The US tolerance for genocide is a driver of genocide all over the world. Read "A Problem from Hell" by @PowerUSAID to see every case where those responsible for some of the worst atrocities of the past 50 years figured out that US backlash was not going to be an issue.
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