How much solar power will the world install eventually? 10 terawatts? 64? Or maybe something astounding like petawatts once our Dyson sphere gets moving.
In the shorter term though - the Solar Overton Window is widening - and a terawatt per year of capacity in nigh.
I wrote a short article on this widening window, and it feels hopeful.
To start the conversation we really should look at many histories (which I didn’t cover) - American, German, Japanese, and Chinese - and how these four countries have done so much to pull the technology forward.
Recently history though should pat China thoroughly on the back.
“pilot production line for perovskite-based PV cells is expected to be operational at the factory by late 2024, with a view to producing commercially viable Perovskite cells by 2026”
Last fall, @Qcells_EU along with @HZBde launched a 'four-year project is partly funded by Horizon Europe, to a total of €14.5 million...with a key objective to demonstrate 26%-efficient modules or higher on industrial scale'
Commercial paybacks modeled in the 6.0 to 7.9 across the utilities and solar through solar+storage. No label on whether this is new or old model.
I'd argue that this shouldn't be purely structured on "rational returns on investment" but instead of those which consider that we've yet to truly tax carbon.
We don't want rational, we paranoia, we want action taken to counteract the decades of global information warfare.
As of November, @BloombergNEF's public number was that the world may install 211 GW of solar power. This is the middle range, and very well could end up being higher.
I think @solar_chase said 2021's number ended up being 183 GW.
@IHSMarkit projects 20% growth on 2021's ~180 GW of solar power deployed, meaning about 216 GWdc of capacity to be installed.