Thread by @KeyserSozeBro1

Final Georgia EV update:

Exclamation point on Friday: +244K
EV total = nominally over 2.5mm

Context: Warnock campaign aspired to a 2.1mm EV cycle target. Anything >2.3mm = terrific, anything >2.4mm = almost unthinkable.

And then 2.5mm happened.

Gender spread? Women +10 !!!!

Context most favorable to Walker: Old Dixiecrats (white men & women >50yrs) showed up huge. Older white voters, both wealthy suburban & rural, are the largest % participation rate strata by a large measure.

Walker campaign did everything it needed to do to feed the MAGA beast…

That as given, GOP has a numbers problem along the Old Dixie I-95 corridor in VA, NC & in GA.

The pluses: older white voters are a group that has ardently showed up at rates >80% of RVs & is now breaking ~85% GOP straight ticket. It’s also a cluster growing on a nominal basis.

But, the Old Dixie + MAGA cluster is a declining market. On a percentage basis, the attribution of younger, non-white RVs is rising. Their % participation rates are anemic versus older white voters, however they are growing faster on BOTH notional & a participation rate basis.

Election eye candy: Older whites rock out huge RV participation rates & breaks huge GOP (85/15 breaks in rural Congressional districts, Arkansas statewide goes 70/30, etc.)

But +6 women RVs add w/ +9 or +10 EV gender gap, +8 youth RVs add w/ +12 EV participation rate? That’s 🧨

At bottom you can’t raise the roof.

There isn’t much excess capacity in the MAGA/Dixiecrats block.

There’s a lot of excess capacity in the market for younger/non-white & politically centrist women.

Excess capacity will partially fill out in 2022 & capturing that matters most.

Last point:

If just 1 race matters most, it’s #VA02 Luria v Kiggans.

A wildly diverse district: lots of active & ex-military, large non-white block in Norfolk proper, age population demographic trending younger.

And it’s 2 women on the ballot: a moderate D vs. an ultra MAGA.

There’s purportedly 3 tossups in VA (#VA02 #VA07 #VA10) but in reality it’s just #VA02.

#VA02 & #VA10 are NoVa districts & GOP basically ran brain dead MAGA campaigns replete with Brother Glenn’s Traveling Salvation Show playing all the old race bait hits.

#VA02 is the one.

#VA07 typo above.

The 2 hype races that aren’t going to be competitive are #VA07 goes Spanberger & #VA10 goes Wexton. Those aren’t going to be close.

All the action at the table in the Commonwealth of Virginia Tuesday is in #VA02. That one has huge national trend implications.