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Nov 5 β€’ 6 tweets β€’ 4 min read
NEW RRH Polls of 3 districts:

#VA07
πŸ”΄ @yestoyesli (R) 47%
πŸ”΅ @RepSpanberger (D) 47%

#OR04
πŸ”΄ @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
πŸ”΅ @ValHoyle (D) 45%

#OH13
πŸ”΄ @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
πŸ”΅ @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%

rrhelections.com/?p=104100
In #VA07 we found Youngkin very popular (+17) and Biden not (-11). Spanberger leads with those who have already voted; Vega will be relying on strong Election Day turnout. Spanberger leads in Stafford County, Vega in Spotsylvania.
In #OR04, Biden is underwater (-9) despite carrying our sample 50-41 in 2020. Undecideds lean young, blue collar, and rural in this tied race. Hoyle does not have as large a lead in Lane County (Eugene) as one may expect.
In #OH13, our sample went for Biden in 2020 by 6--more friendly to him than actual 2020 voters (D+3)--but they now disapprove of him (-10). Tim Ryan (D) leads 50-42 for #OHSen here. This is a winnable district for Republicans if a redder electorate shows up Tuesday.
Full results, crosstabs, and much more here: rrhelections.com/index.php/2022…
If you are curious about our polling track record you can see our full polling history hereπŸ‘‡
rrhelections.com/index.php/rrh-…

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More from @RRHElections

RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 20
Just sitting here thinking about where Joe Pinion could be in the polls right now if he could have raised Amy McGrath kind of money for his long shot run against a Senate Majority Leader.
It will be interesting to see if Pinion can do better in 2020 run against a Senate Majority Leader than McGrath did in 2018. This poll indicates that he could. So far Pinion has raised $96 million less than Amy McGrath did.
As of the last campaign finance filing Joe Pinion (R) has raised $400,875 for his #NYSen campaign vs. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D).
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 12
A week late, but let's do a thread on the Alabama VRA case and what it might mean for redistricting in 2024. The Supreme Court is expected to reinterpret the VRA--one way or another--next spring, and the Court's new guidelines will change the way states approach redistricting. 1/
Earlier this year, a lower court ordered Alabama to redraw its map (left), which has had one Black-majority district since 1992. Plaintiffs convinced the court that the VRA required Alabama to draw two Black-majority seats (right, for one example). 2/ ImageImage
SCOTUS has long had a 3-factor test (the "Gingles factors") to determine when a VRA district is required:

1. A compact district can be drawn that is at least 50%+1 of a min. group
2. The minority is politically cohesive
3. Whites bloc vote to defeat minorities' candidates

3/
Read 21 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 12
Here's a supercut of #WISen candidate Mandela Barnes (D) bragging about how he & #WIGov Tony Evers (D) worked to cut Wisconsin's prison population in half by releasing convicted felons back onto the streets of Wisconsin. 1/6
To meet their political goal of cutting Wisconsin prison population in half Evers & Barnes released murderers & rapist back onto the streets of Wisconsin. In 1st half of 2022 they were averaging granting early release to 2 murderers & rapist per weekπŸ‘‡ 2/
wisconsinrightnow.com/2022/10/11/eve…
#WIGov Tony Evers (D) appointees granted early release to a stranger who grabbed a UW-Eau Claire college student off the street & raped her and to a man who hacked a gas station clerk to death with a hatchet and blamed it on a fictional black suspects. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Oct 4
It's amazing how some of the most damaging op-research against John Fetterman are just contemporaneous news reports about all the shady/possibly illegal stuff John Fetterman did while serving as Mayor of Braddock.
From 2010:
From 2013:
Read 5 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
Jun 10
NY's Assembly maps which are the basis for all of NY's election districts have been ruled unconstitutional & will need to be redrawn for 2024. 1/4
By separating the Assembly lawsuit from the Congressional & state Senate lawsuit the petitioners were able to get a re-draw for those 2 maps this year as opposed to having to operate this election cycle on the legislature's illegal gerrymandered map. 2/4
If NY's Assembly maps were ruled illegal when the House & state Senate maps were tossed the difficulty of redrawing all of NY's election districts in time could have prevented the court from ordering a re-draw this year & allowed the Legislature's gerrymander to stand for 2022.
Read 4 tweets
RRH Elections Profile picture
May 21
Quick hits on the new NY Congressional map: this will realistically swing between 16D-10R and 20D-6R, with each party having a couple other longer-shot targets. The key changes from Monday are a safer Malliotakis seat and splitting Suffolk by North/South Shore instead of E/W.
After being tantalized with the possibility of a compact South Brooklyn seat, the court's final map is somehow even worse for the Orthodox Jewish community than the first draft. Boro Park is split precisely down the middle, eliminating its influence.
With the huge exception of South Brooklyn, everything else south of I-84 is about as clean and no-nonsense as you could ask for. But the Upstate lines are still a mess, as Cervas's attempt to draw a "competitive" #NY19 creates a seat that runs from Watertown to Niagara.
Read 4 tweets

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