Thread by @benraue

For today's blog post I'm analysing how three-cornered contests between ALP, Greens and Coalition play out with different preference flows between the parties. This chart shows who would win with a given 3CP based on different preference scenarios #VicVotes #springst

For this chart I looked at how preferences from the Liberal Party flowed at the 2018 election and plotted out a bunch of Greens contests from 2014 and 2018. You can see how an increased Greens vote could still see them lose if it also involves the Liberal Party dropping into 3rd.

And for this one, I looked at Greens contests from federal and QLD elections. Liberal preferences flowed more strongly to the ALP at the 2022 federal election.

But this isn't always the case! The LNP preferenced the Greens in South Brisbane in 2020, and ~63% of LNP voters followed that advice. Likewise about 78% of Liberal voters preferenced Adam Bandt in 2010, which led to the Libs changing policy for the last decade.

But there are now reports that the Liberals may preference Greens over Labor which would shift the graph to look more like this, and would mean a dropping Liberal vote would help the Greens, not harm them.

Here's the blog post: tallyroom.com.au/50310