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Ben Raue Profile picture
Ben Raue
@benraue
A guy with a blog
Jun 14 • 21 tweets • 4 min read
The redistribution committee has proposed that the independent seat of North Sydney be abolished, with about 12.8% of NSW voters moving to a different seat. We have no further details. I'll be liveblogging here: tallyroom.com.au/55829
Jun 2 • 13 tweets • 3 min read
Okay so a quick thread about Kooyong and preselections. Firstly, the idea that Kooyong is suddenly far more competitive for the Liberals is nuts. It is difficult to calculate a "notional" 2CP for Monique Ryan in an area where no equivalent independent ran, but I estimate that Labor polled 47.8% of the 2PP in the transferred area. Image
Mar 17 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
I've got a fresh blog post up looking at the trends in the Brisbane City election - preference flows, Labor vs Greens polarisation, and the way that the electoral system impacted the results. I'll have another post later about the close races, but there's a lot of votes to count Image You can read the blog post here: tallyroom.com.au/55316
Jan 26 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
The AEC announced this week that the enrolment projections for the Vic and WA federal redistributions were incorrect and new numbers would be needed. I've got a blog post analysing what this means for the Victorian redistribution (with WA to come) #auspoltallyroom.com.au/54520 The enrolment projections are crucial because seats must be drawn within 3.5% of the average enrolment 3.5 years after the redistribution (March-April 2028), and these numbers are the estimate we have.
Apr 3, 2023 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
Today's blog post is looking at the effect of retirements on the variation in swing at the NSW state election. tallyroom.com.au/51344 There were some wide variation in swings, with Labor gaining bigger swings where Liberal MPs had retired in Parramatta, South Coast and Ryde amongst others, while swings were kept small in Goulburn and East Hills.
Apr 1, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Follow my Aston liveblog here tallyroom.com.au/51315 You would want to be Labor at this point. The third 2PP booth to report has a 10% swing to Labor, and overall the 2PP swing is on 5%.
Mar 22, 2023 • 26 tweets • 5 min read
Okay putting aside my personal opinions about CPV and OPV, and who benefits, for another time, I think it's probably time to run through the history of changing the NSW voting system, and when you do or don't need a referendum I'm not a constitutional lawyer - I'm an elections expert who's spent a lot of time reading up on election history recently, and there's a few spots here where I'm not sure what the legal implications are - I'm just describing what we know.
Mar 13, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Today's blog post analyses preference data that could shed light into which way crossbenchers could jump if they find themselves in a kingmaker role in a hung parliament. #nswpol tallyroom.com.au/51212 Most of this data is based on the full ballot paper dataset. I don't know when this dataset will be available for 2023 but the 2019 data might still shed some light.
Mar 8, 2023 • 14 tweets • 1 min read
At the ballot draw for the NSW Legislative Council. Fred Nile just turned up. 21 groups and 11 ungrouped candidates.
Nov 29, 2022 • 8 tweets • 2 min read
My blog post today analyses why there was a significant swing against Labor but basically no change in the seat count. Labor suffered a swing of about 3% on 2PP, and a primary vote swing of about 6% (Coalition primary was steady). The pendulum suggested such a swing would cost them 7 seats to the Coalition yet at the moment they’ve lost one to the Greens and are even against the Coalition.
Nov 6, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
For today's blog post I'm analysing how three-cornered contests between ALP, Greens and Coalition play out with different preference flows between the parties. This chart shows who would win with a given 3CP based on different preference scenarios #VicVotes #springst Image For this chart I looked at how preferences from the Liberal Party flowed at the 2018 election and plotted out a bunch of Greens contests from 2014 and 2018. You can see how an increased Greens vote could still see them lose if it also involves the Liberal Party dropping into 3rd. Image
Jul 14, 2022 • 16 tweets • 3 min read
I’m not an expert on whether the CPRS was good policy but I know a bit about politics and the theory that the Greens voting against the CPRS led to “a decade of climate action” is just fantasy based on a specific alternative history. A fantasy where the “climate wars” were ended in 2009 and Labor’s govt lasted in majority much longer than it did. All lost because of one Senate vote in 2009.