-Rates hedging by using the US Treasuries futures - $ZB_F $ZF_F $TN_F $UB_F or similar products
-Same sector ETF hedging - $LQD or the $IBIG futures which are a proxy of $LQD.
High Yield bonds
We don't have many options here:
- Using a same sector ETF like $HYG or $JNK, but one should be careful, lower rated High Yield bonds should not be hedged with $HYG as they have idiosyncratic risk. Appropriate to hedge BB+,BB or BB- bonds
- IBHY futures
Emerging Markets
- If rated BBB+ or above could be rates hedged, at least for a short-period of time - Depending on the maturity, you can use $ZF_F $TN_F $UB_F, etc.
- $EMB - Most popular EM $ debt ETF. I use it again to hedge higher rated EM bonds , anything from BBB and above.
AT1/Perpetuals
Not appropriate to rates hedge them with futures as they are not as responsive as Investment Grade bonds.
Most popular ETFs to hedge with:
- $FPE - Mix of Yankee bank USD and US perps
- $VRP - USD perpetuals only.
Let me know if you find this type of insights useful. I will do another thread next Tuesday covering the ins and outs of hedging my IG bond exposure with futures and why I prefer doing so to hedging with cash treasury bonds.
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One can easily look when and how much he has been selling. He started doing so on Nov 4 and continued on Nov 7 and 8.
Judging by today's PA in $TSLA, he is selling again. There is a stark divergence between $SPY and $TSLA in terms of severity of selling, even if we vol adjust.
Over the past 16 years I have had numerous break through moments in my trading career.
Each moment came after overcoming a tough period.
Read about the 4 lessons that had a profound growth effect on my career as a trader.
Early career lessons:
1. I didn't realize quickly enough that trading edges come and go. I thought I will make money with my favorite strategy forever but I was wrong. BIG MISTAKE!!!
2. Not realizing that market dynamics change which means some strategies stop working overnight while other strategies become profitable. You can't do breakouts in a bear market, ask anyone doing it if they are happy with their 2022 performance.
The psychology behind stock market bubbles has always been the same and the process is happening again. The anatomy of Bubbles can be divided in 5 stages. Here is what you need to look for during each one of them 👇
1. Displacement ✨
Investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology. Could be crypto, space, AI, etc
2. Boom 💥
Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market (retail traders), setting the stage for the boom phase.
I am a firm believer of using futures contracts to hedge my corporate bond exposure. Here is a list of the most popular 🇪🇺 futures contracts appropriate for hedging EUR denominated corporate bond exposure:
In last week’s credit and equity reviews we were BULLISH for the week. We laid out our arguments supporting that view.
$SPY ($SPX) finished the week down, Bonds finished the week down.
But what happened to our positions?
First let me start with the bullish arguments for our fixed income picks:
1. Change in tone from FED members - How wrong was I about that! 2. Lack of fear in iTraxx Crossover, CDX High Yield and OAS spreads 3. MOVE index refusing to make new highs and closing lower for the week
Second, let me lay out the equity markets bullish arguments:
1. DXY - easing off the highs 2. Strong seasonality 3. Stocks going up despite poor earnings from tech companies
I have been trading for 16 years . I've traded through the GFC , FLASH CRASH, EURO CRISIS, KNIGHT CAPITAL BUST, VOLMAGEDDON and COVID.
Here are the top 3 mistakes I wish I avoided earlier in my journey:
1/ NOT learning about how to trade options earlier in my career. I was able to increase my position sizing 5x as soon as I realized how to control my risk better and estimate my position size via options. It is like trading on steroids.
2/ DID NOT realize earlier what a big difference proper risk management (RM) had on my trading career. I always knew I could come back from big losses but I underestimated the effect on my psychological state. My position sizing was significantly smaller....