Hedging is a key skill that every trader needs to learn.

The ins and out of hedging are not widely talked about on #fintwit.

Here are a few insights into what products I like to use for hedging my fixed-income portfolio 👇
1. First I need to ask myself what type of bonds I need to hedge? EUR denominated or USD denominated?

In this case I will talk about USD debt:

- Investment grade
- High Yield
- Emerging Markets
- AT1/Hybrid/Perpetuals

I use different products for each type of bonds.
Investment grade bonds

We have two options here:

-Rates hedging by using the US Treasuries futures - $ZB_F $ZF_F $TN_F $UB_F or similar products
-Same sector ETF hedging - $LQD or the $IBIG futures which are a proxy of $LQD.
High Yield bonds

We don't have many options here:

- Using a same sector ETF like $HYG or $JNK, but one should be careful, lower rated High Yield bonds should not be hedged with $HYG as they have idiosyncratic risk. Appropriate to hedge BB+,BB or BB- bonds
- IBHY futures
Emerging Markets

- If rated BBB+ or above could be rates hedged, at least for a short-period of time - Depending on the maturity, you can use $ZF_F $TN_F $UB_F, etc.
- $EMB - Most popular EM $ debt ETF. I use it again to hedge higher rated EM bonds , anything from BBB and above.
AT1/Perpetuals

Not appropriate to rates hedge them with futures as they are not as responsive as Investment Grade bonds.

Most popular ETFs to hedge with:
- $FPE - Mix of Yankee bank USD and US perps
- $VRP - USD perpetuals only.
Let me know if you find this type of insights useful. I will do another thread next Tuesday covering the ins and outs of hedging my IG bond exposure with futures and why I prefer doing so to hedging with cash treasury bonds.

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More from @HeardFloor

Nov 9
Almost all trading strategies are built around a simple concept and could be put in one of those 4 categories:

1. Mean reversion
2. Momentum
3. Volatility based
4. Event driven

While tons of words could be written about each of those, I will provide an example of #4

🧵
Yesterday It became clear that the recent selling in $TSLA is due Elon Musk unloading shares.

Those type of insider dealings could be seen on EDGAR, as each company is due to file them under the tab "Ownership disclosures".

sec.gov/edgar/browse/?…

👉This is our EVENT. 👈
One can easily look when and how much he has been selling. He started doing so on Nov 4 and continued on Nov 7 and 8.

Judging by today's PA in $TSLA, he is selling again. There is a stark divergence between $SPY and $TSLA in terms of severity of selling, even if we vol adjust.
Read 7 tweets
Nov 9
Over the past 16 years I have had numerous break through moments in my trading career.

Each moment came after overcoming a tough period.

Read about the 4 lessons that had a profound growth effect on my career as a trader.
Early career lessons:

1. I didn't realize quickly enough that trading edges come and go. I thought I will make money with my favorite strategy forever but I was wrong. BIG MISTAKE!!!
2. Not realizing that market dynamics change which means some strategies stop working overnight while other strategies become profitable. You can't do breakouts in a bear market, ask anyone doing it if they are happy with their 2022 performance.
Read 9 tweets
Nov 8
The psychology behind stock market bubbles has always been the same and the process is happening again. The anatomy of Bubbles can be divided in 5 stages. Here is what you need to look for during each one of them 👇
1. Displacement ✨
Investors get enamored by a new paradigm, such as an innovative new technology. Could be crypto, space, AI, etc
2. Boom 💥
Prices rise slowly at first, following a displacement, but then gain momentum as more and more participants enter the market (retail traders), setting the stage for the boom phase.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 6
I am a firm believer of using futures contracts to hedge my corporate bond exposure. Here is a list of the most popular 🇪🇺 futures contracts appropriate for hedging EUR denominated corporate bond exposure:
🇩🇪 bond futures

FGBS (Schatz) - 2 year German bond

FGBM (Bobl) - 5 year German bond

FGBL (Bund) - 10 year German bond

FBGX (Buxl) - 30 year German bond

FEHY - Euro High Yield

FECX - Euro Corporate SRI

FGGI - Euro Green bond
🇮🇹 bond futures:

FBTS - 2-3 year Italian bond futures

FBTM - 5 year Italian bond futures

FBTP - 10 year Italian bond futures

🇫🇷 bond futures:

FOAM - 5 year French bond futures

FOAT - 10 year French bond futures

🇪🇸 bond futures

FBON - 9 year Spanish bond futures
Read 4 tweets
Nov 5
In last week’s credit and equity reviews we were BULLISH for the week. We laid out our arguments supporting that view.

$SPY ($SPX) finished the week down, Bonds finished the week down.

But what happened to our positions?
First let me start with the bullish arguments for our fixed income picks:

1. Change in tone from FED members - How wrong was I about that!
2. Lack of fear in iTraxx Crossover, CDX High Yield and OAS spreads
3. MOVE index refusing to make new highs and closing lower for the week
Second, let me lay out the equity markets bullish arguments:

1. DXY - easing off the highs
2. Strong seasonality
3. Stocks going up despite poor earnings from tech companies
Read 6 tweets
Nov 2
I have been trading for 16 years . I've traded through the GFC , FLASH CRASH, EURO CRISIS, KNIGHT CAPITAL BUST, VOLMAGEDDON and COVID.

Here are the top 3 mistakes I wish I avoided earlier in my journey:
1/ NOT learning about how to trade options earlier in my career. I was able to increase my position sizing 5x as soon as I realized how to control my risk better and estimate my position size via options. It is like trading on steroids.
2/ DID NOT realize earlier what a big difference proper risk management (RM) had on my trading career. I always knew I could come back from big losses but I underestimated the effect on my psychological state. My position sizing was significantly smaller....
Read 9 tweets

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