This started with a single location. Then a few. Now, it's sounding as if this is widespread and very serious.
Turnout is very heavy, very early in Maricopa. This is a real serious problem. No voter should ever have to leave their ballot in a box in the corner of the room and expect it to be handled properly at some point later.

It's a chain of custody nightmare and easily exploitable.
And please, I don't need the usual Mr. Rogers-like suspects to pretend this is not a big deal.

It is, and nobody is this naive, so drop the pretentious BS.

Maricopa was told along with other counties that turnout would be very heavy on #ElectionDay .

It needs to be fixed.
Due to the issues in Maricopa and Pinal during the primary, election officials were presented with a data-based argument making it very clear that they needed to be prepared for massive turnout on #ElectionDay .

They knew. This is totally unacceptable.

Great job, Carter Center.

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More from @Peoples_Pundit

Nov 6
VBMs in Clark County aside, what really matters will be the REP margin among INDs.

Dean Heller, the last non-Sandoval REP to carry the state (+1.2%), won INDs by 20pts in 2012, 53/33, lost Clark by 9pts.

Romney (-6.6%) only won INDs by 11pts, lost by Clark by 15pts.

In 2018...
In 2018, both Heller and Laxalt lost INDs by roughly 20pts.

In 2016, Trump won them by them 13pts, more than Romney and Clark was tighter (Clinton +10), but he still came up just shy.

The difference between that 13-15 to 20pt range for the IND margin really means everything.
Reason I said non-Sandoval REP is because the guy was an electoral phenom and not remotely normal to compare. He beat Bob Goodman (D) like a drum, won every county, with over 70% of the vote.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 6
I’ll tell everyone what it was right now, though it’s not the smartest fight for REPs to have before a midterm.

When Ron DeSantis is chatting with @kevinomccarthy and Team Paul Ryan behind the back of the man who made him the governor of Florida, it was bound to happen.

It’s called a shot across the bow and it’s in response to what Trump has been hearing is going on behind his back, which more than a half of dozen donors and scores of sitting congressman have told me is true.
They’ve targeted Ron DeSantis as the stool they believe is their best chance to foil another Trump Presidency and after enough hammering away at him and blowing up his head, there are indications that it is working.

But make no mistake, it is a DC establishment plan and is true.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 5
For @OnLocals: Using the Buckeye State Battleground Poll Test to Scrutinize Two Theories Ahead of Tuesday

We spoke with 731 Likely Voters and modeled two electorates. The results in the state of Ohio are fairly conclusive unless past is NOT prologue.…
FYI, the first electorate is weighted to be more favorable to Tim Ryan than 1) the likely voter model supports and 2) the electorate in 2018.

This race is NOT 2018. Tim Ryan is NOT Sherrod Brown (incumbent) and J.D. Vance is a far stronger candidate than Jim Renacci.

Even in the first scenario labeled "Ryan Favorable" that is more DEM favorable than the electorate in 2018, Vance still leads by a fairly solid margin.

In the normally modeled LV electorate, Vance's lead expands to 7 points, above 50% support, yet still has room to grow to 8-10.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 1
You and your garbage POLITICO poll are full of shit.

This is bothering me and I'm over it.

Your poll is the Bottom 10 Poll for three straight election cycles. You fake ass reporters obviously all got the memo to smear the "GOP outlier" polls that have outperformed you.

How dare anyone from @politico attack any polling firm, especially ones they brand as "rightwing" because they didn't make fools of themselves for three straight cycles.

Don't hate on anyone else because you're willing to bend over and take it from a political party.

Scum bags.
Do you know what the real difference is between garbage @politico @MorningConsult Polls and the supposedly "GOP outliers", aside from the latter being more accurate?

They bend over and get STUFFED!

We are too competitive to care about a party liking us.

That's the truth.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 28
This is a legitimate explanation. All of us who contract real-time election results from AP or DecisionDesk are currently testing their APIs.

The real concern is about media incompetence, because it's completely unacceptable to display test API data live as a result.

Sadly, Fox 10 Phoenix is not the first nor will they be the last to be so reckless and incompetent.

It does little to inspire confidence in them when they assure the public, the consumer and voter of the integrity of our elections, and smear those who dare to question them.
What Fox 10 Phoenix did is NOT the fault of the Associated Press. It is their fault. They fed test API data to the lower third graphics live.

Even YouTubers/Rumblers like us have "preview mode" and can see the test API data on the backend without making it live.

And BTW...
Read 4 tweets
Oct 24
DEM operatives citing the @CNN poll of "registered voters"—with a terrible track record of understating Republican support in the Midwest—exactly for the purpose you suspected.

It's so transparent and obvious, not sure who they think they're fooling anymore, save for themselves.
The Johnson +1 in Wisconsin was the tell. A Barnes +Anything would've been just too overt at this point.

This way, it's cover for the rest of them, and if and when he wins by 3-5 points, they'll just claim that the RV sample understated working class voters again.
In what looks suspiciously like a setup tweet right before CNN dropped, he's (laughably) arguing "GOP-aligned" polls are skewing averages.

Folks, the vast majority of polling firms in averages are not only leftist, but presented to you as non-partisan.
Read 5 tweets

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