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Thorongil Profile picture
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Nov 8 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Election day votes are happening but Rs already have a decent turnout advantage in Lake County EV for #IN01.

Hammond is an ouch, particularly because that is where Mrvan is from. Dems will need big turnout Gary/EC/these other bases today to win.
That said, the EV data in LaPorte and Porter actually looks ok - Dem turnout advantages in Valparaiso (Center twp, Porter), Michigan City (LaPorte) mean that Mrvan is still very much in this.
For those of you who are interested - full ballot return stats for the 3 counties in #IN01. A bunch of these townships in LaPorte are in the 2nd CD just as a forewarning.
This will be my only EV analysis before polls close.

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More from @Thorongil16

Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 10
Currently, Frisch up by 64 votes.

I pulled the current numbers in each county of CO-03 and calculated the undervote. Using this we projected the *upper bound* of how many remaining cong. votes there are.

If they break at the current margin, Frisch gains a *max* of 393 votes. Image
Assuming some attrition in Mesa/Pueblo (the two main sources), you get the second case. As an absolute upper bound (Frisch probably will not hit this), he gains 88.

I think there's a solid case that Frisch's net gain conf. interval will keep this in a double-digit vote margin.
In other words - too early to call. Way too early to call. This is not going to be called now.
Read 5 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 8
#CO03 has been pointed out as a sleeper based on early vote data from @GalenMetzger1 (CO data hype man).

Looking at the reg data, do I agree?

Definitely maybe. Thread below
Boebert is a shit candidate. The fact that this seat is competitive is 100% due to her being a shit candidate - Rs in a red year in the 3rd usually win by double digits, nearing 20 points. See: Tipton, Scott and McInnis, Scott
Looking at returned ballots, and using a 15% split in Eagle County (the portion of the county in CD3), there's a roughly 13k firewall for registered Rs - in 2020 this number was 32k and it was roughly similar in 2018.
Read 10 tweets
Thorongil Profile picture
Nov 7
Plugging our final predictions from the @SplitTicket_ crew:

@lxeagle17 @HWLavelleMaps myself

We'll end up seeing who's right only tomorrow, but we've put together some very solid educated guesses on what could happen - so read the articles linked below!
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
House: 234-201 R from @HWLavelleMaps
split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our…
Senate: 50-49 R with Georgia runoff deciding control of the Senate, from @lxeagle17
split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our…
Read 4 tweets

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