5 most Educated House Districts in Connecticut:

1. 141st (Darien, Norwalk, R-held)
2. 136th (Westport, D-held)
3. 42nd (New Canaan, Ridgefield, Wilton, D-held)
4. 151st (Greenwich, D-held)
5. 132nd (Fairfield, D-held) all of these have over 75% bachelors' degree attainment, and all five of these are in Fairfield County.

Amazing get

https://twitter.com/catargetbot/status/1653037325528748032

Kaplan is actually Jewish, not Jew-ish

Behold: the results of the recent 2022 Navajo presidential election, organized by Tribal Chapter.

Incumbent President Jonathan Nez was defeated by Buu Nygren, positioning himself as the candidate for change and as someone who could get the ball rolling on long-awaited projects. Nygren's 2022 victory stands in sharp contrast to the previous 2018 election when Nez won easily and defeated a ticket that included Nygren.

Evidently, the Navajo electorate was looking for change as Nez's support declined in virtually all the chapters.

college educated social conservatives as a demographic try too damn hard

Trump on the other hand, just shoots from the hip and the base eats it up

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1646313198088253440

college educated social conservatives consist of two sub-demographics:

1) lunatics stuck in cultural/ideological bubbles
2) people who are trying to cosplay as populist heroes

alright since i said i was gonna do this here is part 2 of the thorongil follower bracket

gotta get it done before the Idiot brings down the hammer

matchups below (1) food take haver @DrewSav

vs

(32) its in the name @pollsnthings

⏰⏰⏰
JARED POLIS IS LIKELY THE FIRST DEMOCRAT TO CARRY THE CITY OF COLORADO SPRINGS:

ESTIMATED TOTALS WITHIN COS PRECINCTS:

POLIS (D): 94,491 (50.6%)
GANAHL (R): 87,774 (47.0%)

Was 50-46 Trump in 2020

#copolitics The suburban CDP of Cimarron Hills also has likely voted blue for the first time

ESTIMATED TOTALS WITHIN CIMARRON HILLS PRECINCTS:

POLIS (D): 3,135 (49.7%)
GANAHL (R): 2,992 (47.5%)

Was 52-43 Trump in 2020

"Barnstable and Bristol have tons of socially conservative populists"

According to this, the solution to losing Massachusetts by 30 points for being too conservative, is to be "more" conservative.

Good luck - Keating ain't going anywhere

https://twitter.com/DeclanLeary/status/1607743960016986112

Massachusetts Rs are 0 and 130 or so for winning congressional elections, and it certainly isn't because every white guy with an Irish last name is a secret crypto-populist waiting to be pulled into voting GOP.

since I'm bored - like this for a subtweet you all seem like very nice people and im glad you like my stuff but we should talk more

GEORGIA 🧵

Between 2020 and 2022 the pool of Georgia voters that has actually cast ballots has gotten significantly whiter, especially in south Georgia (rural).

Interestingly, the heavily black suburbs south of ATL in Henry/Clayton/Rockdale have all gotten blacker. 20 on left, 22 on right

Weaker D black belt is obvious. Biden won GA because rural AAs didn't shift far from 2016/2018 baselines like in NC.

But for 2022 they did - Warnock's plurality in the first round is in spite of this and is a testament to his strength with whites.

Map thread here since the precinct results were out and this took me like 5 minutes to make.

Bill Keating as usual crushed it and won by 18, basically matching Biden's numbers here. Jesse Brown was one of the least problematic Rs on the ballot in the Bay State this year. Bristol County Sheriff race

The notorious right wing sheriff Tom Hodgson narrowly lost to Attleboro Mayor Paul Heroux, as the Dems actually gave a crap and tried to defeat an incumbent. Still, there were a ton of Healey/Hodgson voters and Heroux owes Fall River/New Bedford ftw.

If the non-in person number is that high - Frisch is absolutely still in this.

It depends on whether the mail is earlier (more D) or later (swing/narrow R).

Either way, buckle up because this seat is likely to be the 218th for either person.

https://twitter.com/annalynnfrey/status/1590723550973145088

Otero also has some votes up for grabs left - those will break R. But we don't really know how much.

Just want to commend Anna here for her amazing job - this ain't easy!

Currently, Frisch up by 64 votes.

I pulled the current numbers in each county of CO-03 and calculated the undervote. Using this we projected the *upper bound* of how many remaining cong. votes there are.

If they break at the current margin, Frisch gains a *max* of 393 votes. Assuming some attrition in Mesa/Pueblo (the two main sources), you get the second case. As an absolute upper bound (Frisch probably will not hit this), he gains 88.

I think there's a solid case that Frisch's net gain conf. interval will keep this in a double-digit vote margin.

Election day votes are happening but Rs already have a decent turnout advantage in Lake County EV for #IN01.

Hammond is an ouch, particularly because that is where Mrvan is from. Dems will need big turnout Gary/EC/these other bases today to win. That said, the EV data in LaPorte and Porter actually looks ok - Dem turnout advantages in Valparaiso (Center twp, Porter), Michigan City (LaPorte) mean that Mrvan is still very much in this.

#CO03 has been pointed out as a sleeper based on early vote data from @GalenMetzger1 (CO data hype man).

Looking at the reg data, do I agree?

Definitely maybe. Thread below Boebert is a shit candidate. The fact that this seat is competitive is 100% due to her being a shit candidate - Rs in a red year in the 3rd usually win by double digits, nearing 20 points. See: Tipton, Scott and McInnis, Scott

Plugging our final predictions from the @SplitTicket_ crew:

@lxeagle17 @HWLavelleMaps myself

We'll end up seeing who's right only tomorrow, but we've put together some very solid educated guesses on what could happen - so read the articles linked below!
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ House: 234-201 R from @HWLavelleMaps
split-ticket.org/2022/11/06/our…