Thread by @BenJ_Rosenblatt

Polls close in 5 minutes in NY. Some races I'm watching:
-#NYGov (obviously)
-Congress: #NY01, #NY02, #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY18, #NY19, #NY22
-Senate Districts: 1, 7, 9, 23, 37-44, 48, & 50
-Statewide Ballot Prop 1
-3 NYC Ballot Props

Reminder: in New York, absentee ballots received prior to election day are pre-processed and included in unofficial election night tallies!

Those absentees and early voting are likely the first results we're seeing.

BTW I will not be live-tweeting results as they come in. If you want to follow along with results statewide, go to nyenr.elections.ny.gov.

You can also get results quicker and often more reliably from individual county Boards of Elections' websites (depending on the county)

One more major thing I'll be watching: the % and # of votes cast for Hochul/Delgado on the Working Families Party line.

They need 130,000 gubernatorial votes or 2% of the total gubernatorial vote, whichever is higher, to retain their ballot line.

The WFP will drastically overperform in some districts. For example, Assemblyman @Bobby4Brooklyn is currently taking in about 27% of the total vote on the WFP line in NY AD 44!

@Bobby4Brooklyn I know I said I wouldn't be live-tweeting, but we just passed 130,000 votes cast for Hochul/Delgado on the Working Families Party line in #NYGov.

So long as they stay above 2% as more results come in, they've retained their ballot line.

@Bobby4Brooklyn On a similar note, Zeldin/Esposito currently have about 86,000 votes on the Conservative Party line in #NYGov -- about 3.8%, but remember, they have to get 130,000 votes or 2% of the gubernatorial vote, whichever is *higher*

A note I want to add, with a lot of focus on Long Island for statewide, congressional, and state legislative races:

Suffolk County, NY is likely to be slow to report results tonight. The county government was seriously hacked a few weeks ago. (more in next tweet)

As a result, their normal county website is completely down. Tonight, Suffolk precincts will be collecting the results on their machine memory drives, delivering them to the Suffolk County Board of Elections, and then transmitting them to the State BOE to publish.

Here's a direct link to where Suffolk county, NY results will be published, for anyone curious: elections.ny.gov/Suffolk/Electi…

The Conservative Party ballot line for Zeldin/Esposito has passed the 130,000 vote mark in the #NYGov race. Now, they just need to stay above 2% of the total gubernatorial votes -- they're currently at 4.4%.

About 30 minutes ago, there were roughly 44,000 more votes on the WFP line for Gov/LG versus the Conservative line.

Now, that difference is down to 35,000.

Keeping an eye on it -- whoever ends up ahead in the end will get line C on the ballot (assuming both stay >2%)

In #NY17, it looks like Dutchess, Putnam, and Rockland are nearly done reporting.

Westchester, however, is confusing. Their results page has SPM at 16,958 votes & Lawler at 13,591 votes. However, their early vote results had SPM at 18,670 votes to 8,693 for Lawler.

It's possible that their results currently are not including those early votes. In any event, they're currently also only at 37% of precincts reporting for #NY17 in Westchester.

(cc @Nate_Cohn might be worth looking into this for NY-17)

@Nate_Cohn @SteveKornacki also relevant for you since you just mentioned this on MSNBC! #NY17 results currently are not including the Westchester early vote, which would net Sean Patrick Maloney 9,977 votes.

A note on #NY17: I personally don't think we'll have a final result tonight. Westchester did not put add their early votes to their e-night results page: they'd net SPM 9,977 votes.

However, they appear to *also* have not counted their absentees. Likely won't until morning.

did not add* it's getting late and I'm making typos

One additional note: we are also currently missing a majority of e-day precincts' results in Westchester in NY-17

Would be nice if folks would note this when talking about/modeling #NY17! cc @SteveKornacki @Nate_Cohn

A note entirely separate from NY-17: the Conservative Party has overtaken the WFP in total votes in the #NYGov race, and that will likely hold. I think both parties will retain their current ballot lines: Conservative Party on line C, WFP on line D

For all of the competitive Hudson Valley & upstate congressional districts, I think it will be close but likely depend on (1) how much e-day vote is remaining, and (2) whether each county BOE in each seat's votes reported thus far include absentees or not.

BOEs were supposed to include the vast majority of absentees in their tallies tonight (because they pre-processed them), but it looks like at least a couple county BOEs did not include them

For #NY18: Schmitt (R) has conceded to Ryan (D).

For #NY22: The race is extremely tight. The good news for Conole (D) is that it appears Madison and Oneida counties haven't tallied their absentees yet. The bad news for Conole is that Onondaga *has* tallied them.

For #NY17: The race is EXTREMELY tight. We're waiting on absentees from Westchester and potentially also from one or more of Rockland, Putnam, and Dutchess. It looks like a nailbiter.

For #NY19: Molinaro currently leads by 2.2%, or about 6,000 votes. I haven't taken a look at which counties in the seat may be missing absentees, mainly because there are 11 counties in the district and I'm tired. I'd probably rather be Molinaro, but I wouldn't call it.