Trenton Sperry Profile picture
Nov 9 29 tweets 15 min read
OK, Colorado. Let’s see what you have to say.
With the first vote drop from Weld County, Republican Barb Kirkmeyer is taking the Weld portion of the new #CO08 by 56.8 to 39.4 over Dem Yadira Caraveo. Libertarian Richard Ward is capturing 3.8%.

Kirkmeyer needs to run up her vote share in Weld to win.

#copolitics
Kirkmeyer is ahead by less than 10,000 votes in the Weld portion of #CO08. But it’s unclear how much of the total Weld vote these numbers represent. #copolitics
In Colorado HD50, incumbent Dem Rep. Mary Young is ahead 51.1 to 45.5 over Republican Ryan Gonzalez. Young has a lead of 641 votes. #copolitics
In the Adams County portion of #CO08, Dem Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barb Kirkmeyer 55.7 to 40.3. Caraveo leads by about 14,000 votes.

Adams so far is lifting Caraveo over Kirkmeyer for the seat, 49.4 to 46.7.

Libertarian Richard Ward playing spoiler with 3.9%

#copolitics
In #CO08, Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barb Kirkmeyer by 4,003 votes.

Libertarian Richard Ward has 5,732 total votes.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo extends her lead over Republican Kirkmeyer.

Caraveo leads by 4,468 votes (+465).

Libertarian Richard Ward has 5,913 votes.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo maintains her lead over Republican Barb Kirkmeyer.

Caraveo leads by 4,242 votes.

Libertarian Richard Ward has 6,093 total votes.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo’s lead over Republican Kirkmeyer has shrunk slightly.

Caraveo leads by 3,559 votes.

Libertarian Richard Ward has 6,176 total votes.

#copolitics
According to @AP, Dem Caraveo leads Republican Kirkmeyer in #CO08 49.2 to 46.9 with an estimated 60% of the vote counted. Libertarian Ward has 3.9%. #copolitics
In #CO08, Republican former Weld County Commissioner Barb Kirkmeyer, who currently holds a state Senate seat, has gained more votes in Adams County than she has in Weld.

Adams: 35,991
Weld: 33,366

That could mean she has more votes from Weld not yet counted.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo again extends her lead over Republican Kirkmeyer back over 4K votes.

Caraveo leads by 4,254 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,326 total votes.

#copolitics
ABC now shows a slightly smaller lead for Dem Caraveo over Republican Kirkmeyer in #CO08.

Caraveo leads by 3,773 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,375 total votes.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo *again* extends her lead over Republican Kirkmeyer back over 4K votes.

Caraveo leads by 4,163 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,533 total votes.

Estimated 62% of vote counted.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo has her lead over Republican Kirkmeyer shrink.

Caraveo leads by 3,846 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,600 total votes.

Estimated 62% of vote counted.

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo again jumps to a 4K vote lead over Republican Kirkmeyer.

Caraveo leads by 4,107 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,693 total votes.

Estimated 63% of vote counted.

#copolitics
NYT considers #CO08 a tossup. It estimates

• 56K votes remain in Adams County, where Dem Caraveo leads by 15 percentage points

• 31K votes remain in Weld County, where GOPer Kirkmeyer leads by 18 percentage points

• 3,700 votes remain in Larimer (Kirkmeyer +6)

#copolitics
In #CO08, Dem Caraveo remains ahead of Republican Kirkmeyer by 4K votes.

Caraveo leads by 4,004 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,696 total votes.

Estimated 65% of votes counted.

#copolitics
After the latest vote drop (which may be the last tonight?) for #CO08, Dem Caraveo leads Republican Kirkmeyer by 4,192.

Libertarian Ward has 6,758 total votes.

Estimated 66% of votes counted.

#copolitics
Ope, I spoke too soon. One more #CO08 update tonight:

Dem Caraveo leads Republican Kirkmeyer by a smaller margin of 3,451 votes.

Libertarian Ward has 6,820 total votes.

Estimated 68% of votes counted.

#copolitics
NYT estimates that in #CO08 there are:

• 52,000 votes still to be counted in Adams County.
• 28,000 votes still to be counted in Weld County.
• 3,500 votes still to be counted in Larimer County.

#copolitics
Good afternoon, #CO08. Here's where things stand at the moment:

Dem Caraveo 86,703 (49.05%)
GOP Kirkmeyer 83,252 (47.09%)
Lib Ward 6,820 (3.86%)

My understanding is we're expecting vote count updates from Weld County at any moment.

#copolitics
And there's a Weld vote dump for #CO08.

GOP Kirkmeyer adds 2,897 votes, Dem Caraveo adds 1,419, Lib Ward adds 174.

Puts things at roughly:
Caraveo 88,122 (48.6%)
Kirkmeyer 86,149 (47.5%)
Ward 6,994 (3.9%)

Caraveo leads by 1,973 votes. It's gonna be close.

#copolitics
According to the Adams County clerk and recorder's elections website, there are an estimated 36,000 ballots left to count there.

A results upload is expected at about 3 p.m. (about 10 minutes), with another to follow at 5 p.m.

#CO08 #copolitics
An update from Larimer County just hit for #CO08. It's a small portion of the overall vote, but where things now stand:

Dem Caraveo 88,534 (48.5%)
GOP Kirkmeyer 86,787 (47.6%)

Caraveo leads by 1,747 votes.

#copolitics
A vote drop from Adams County just hit for #CO08, a Caraveo stronghold.

Dem Caraveo 90,882 (48.7%)
GOP Kirkmeyer 88,392 (47.4%)

Caraveo's lead increases to 2,490 votes.

#copolitics
Another drop from Adams County for #CO08, as expected.

Dem Caraveo 94,146 (49%)
GOP Kirkmeyer 90,676 (47.2%)

Caraveo's lead increases to 3,470 votes.

#copolitics
We have a #CO08 vote count update from Weld County, Kirkmeyer's stronghold, and it's a doozy.

Dem Caraveo 96,922 (48.4%)
GOP Kirkmeyer 95,400 (47.7%)

Caraveo leads by 1,522 votes.

#copolitics
Per the Adams County clerk and recorder's website, Adams will release another vote count at about 6 p.m. (about 15 minutes).

There may not be another vote count update from Weld County until noon tomorrow.

#CO08 #copolitics

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More from @trentonsperry

Nov 11
The Twitter verified fiasco reminds me of something. Allow me to thread.
Back when I worked at the @GreeleyTribune and the newspaper still had its own press in the back, every so often all employees would have to attend government-mandated safety hazard meetings because of the ink and related chemicals being stored in the building.
The meetings weren't terrible. Half of it was the standard "Don't climb on big racks of things because you're def gonna die when they fall over" videos.

But one video absolutely sent me.
Read 10 tweets
Nov 9
For what it’s worth, the signs were all there.

- Supreme Court reduces rights for half the population (the half that votes more and lives longer).

- Dem over-performance in special elections.

- Generic ballot average showing Dem growth and GOP decay.
But forecasters and national media got duped by a constant stream of GOP-aligned and funded pollsters claiming bonkers numbers that nonpartisan pollsters just never found.
Dems kept their own polling close to their chest, and that choice seems interesting now.

But we should also talk about the general lack of quality polling this year.

#CO08, one of the most expensive House races in the country, has ZERO nonpartisan public polls.
Read 4 tweets
May 27, 2020
Greeley is getting a lot of hate on social media today because of a Tweet with a Map about cities in every state that people like to Dunk On.
But I just want to note real quick that the VAST MAJORITY of the hate re: Greeley is 1. factually inaccurate and 2. largely just prejudice against poor and working class people.
People who haven't lived or probably even visited Greeley like to claim that it smells like cow poop here constantly, but that is laughably false. At worst it smells bad for like an hour one day per month.
Read 15 tweets

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