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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 10

I keep coming back to the thought that it was perhaps irresponsible for people to confidently model out what 2028 and 2032 were going to be like and even more irresponsible for major outlets to confidently run with the story that Dems were hosed No Matter What.

In regular data science situations, modeling 10 years into the future and saying Democrats were absolutely not going to have a Senate majority for the next two decades would have been considered malpractice, especially with a sample set of n=5 elections or so.

"Well, the Supreme Court did something insane that nobody could have seen coming" I mean, not really? This was goal #1 for them from the start and the minute they got a 6-3 majority, we could guess that it was on the table, and that threw in enough uncertainty to urge caution.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 10

If the Republicans win a majority in the House (very much an open question at this point), the majority will be no more than 2-3 seats in all likelihood as things currently stand.

Kevin McCarthy would struggle managing a 10 seat majority. No idea how he works with a 2 seat one.

Is it even going to be McCarthy? Right now, he simply doesn’t have the support. Recall that in 2020, there was a plan to move on from him if things went as forecasted and Republicans lost as many seats as expected. Instead, they gained seats and his position got stronger

Now, they’re stuck in a position where he’s going to be the frontrunner for Speaker, but without the support of 218 Rs. What is a caucus of 219 GOP reps going to even get done? You might need MTG and Fitzpatrick both voting together on everything.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 10

The thing about the Republican Party right now is that candidate quality is absolutely not dead, and a good number of voters perceive Trump's handpicked candidates as certifiably insane. It's a race to the bottom for who can act the craziest, and it reeks of contempt for voters.

Establishment Republicans who've got their own image separate from Trump actually do decently well in elections. There's good evidence of this (see: Youngkin, DeSantis, Kemp, Bacon, Fitzpatrick). But...

2020 gave people the idea that you can say whatever stupid thing you want and still have people vote for you. This is flatly not true. Partisanship is more important than before, but people still care about candidate quality. It's why Boebert is locked in a dead heat.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 10

With GA going to a runoff, there are three ways this week plays out in the race for Senate control. All are still possible.

1) Dems win NV + AZ, clinch Senate
2) Dems win one of AZ and NV and go to a GA runoff to decide the Senate
3) Dems lose both AZ/NV, lose the Senate

Scenario 1, to my eye, is the most likely right now, but it's very close and we don't know that much. A lot of this is going to depend (1) on how much mail is outstanding and (2) how independents are skewing in Clark and Washoe -- Dems will hope they're younger and more D-leaning

Scenario 2 is not at all out of the running. You would not find too many journalists willing to confidently say that CCM is going to survive. The most you'll get people saying is that she might be favored to hold on if the assumptions we have don't break...and that's not safe.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 8

State correlations are overlooked when analyzing turnout today IMO -- if you're seeing relatively high Democratic turnout in one state but abysmal Dem turnout in another demographically similar one, there's a chance that we're just missing data. Wait before jumping to conclusions

I feel like the Nevada rollercoaster On Here should have taught us this lesson. Democrats concluded they were hosed seven different times before the late mail resulted in Jon Ralston saying CCM was slightly favored. It's possible Dems don't turn out much today. I'd just wait.

None of this is saying Dems will win today, nor is it saying they'll get blown out (both are possible, the latter maybe slightly more likely than the former based on fundamentals). It's just saying that...well, extrapolations from incomplete data can get very, very risky.

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Lakshya Jain

@lxeagle17

Nov 7

@SplitTicket_

Our final Senate forecast for @SplitTicket_. 49D-50R, with a runoff to decide it all in Georgia. If we had to pick a party to win the majority, though, it's the Republicans.

#PASen: Lean D -> Lean R
#NHSen: Likely D -> Lean D
#NVSen: Tossup -> Lean D

split-ticket.org/2022/11/07/our…

@SplitTicket_

@SplitTicket_ Here's a table showing our changes from our last update. We've said everything we wanted to say and everything we think we needed to say in the article itself. We'll have one more piece out tomorrow on the overall environment. Thanks for reading, folks. Always a pleasure.

@RalstonReports

I actually had PA and NV *both* going R before @RalstonReports' update. But once we saw the data he put up and then saw his prediction for CCM, we pivoted. There's a good data argument for it, and we wouldn't bet against the guy who got Harry Reid and Dean Heller's victories down

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