Thread by @trentonsperry

For what it’s worth, the signs were all there.

- Supreme Court reduces rights for half the population (the half that votes more and lives longer).

- Dem over-performance in special elections.

- Generic ballot average showing Dem growth and GOP decay.

But forecasters and national media got duped by a constant stream of GOP-aligned and funded pollsters claiming bonkers numbers that nonpartisan pollsters just never found.

Dems kept their own polling close to their chest, and that choice seems interesting now.

But we should also talk about the general lack of quality polling this year.

#CO08, one of the most expensive House races in the country, has ZERO nonpartisan public polls.

Another danger was Likely Voter models. I suspect few pollsters adjusted their turnout models after Dobbs, and that was probably a huge mistake.